If the regular season were to end today, the Los Angeles Lakers would not even qualify for the play-in tournament. With their loss to the Mavericks on Tuesday, the Lakers dropped to the West’s No. 11 seed — tied in the loss column with No. 10 San Antonio, which owns the tiebreaker via conference record.
The Lakers have seven games remaining, and they could have LeBron James and Anthony Davis back for Friday’s matchup vs. the No. 9 Pelicans, who lead the Lakers by one in the loss column.
Also on Tuesday, the Bucks defeated the 76ers to move one game up in the loss column on Philadelphia and Boston. The Bucks are now the East’s No. 2 seed, tied in the loss column with No. 1 Miami, while Philly falls to No. 3.
We’re going to be keeping close tabs on the playoff race with daily updates the rest of the way. Below is where things stand entering play on Wednesday, March 30.
NOTE: Our SportsLine model, developed by predictive data engineer Stephen Oh, simulates the entire season 10,000 times and is constantly updating to reflect changing circumstances to produce the most unbiased and precise projections imaginable
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WESTERN CONFERENCE
Phoenix has clinched the No. 1 overall seed.
Current first-round matchup: TBD (play-in results)
The Grizzlies have opened up an effective six-game lead over No. 3 Golden State with six to play, so they can’t drop behind the Warriors. The only team that can mathematically catch the Grizzlies is the Mavericks, who trail by six in the loss column with the tiebreaker over Memphis secured. Memphis’ magic number to seal the No. 2 seed is one.
Projected seed: 2Current first-round matchup: Timberwolves vs. Clippers play-in winnerTiebreaker vs. No. 3 Warriors: Grizzlies have clinched via 3-1 head-to-head advantageTiebreaker vs. No. 4 Jazz: Memphis has clinched with 2-1 head-to-head advantageTiebreaker vs. No. 5 Mavericks: Dallas has clinched with 3-1 head-to-head advantage
3. Golden State Warriors
The Warriors cannot catch Memphis for the No. 2 seed. Now they have to try to hold off No. 4 Dallas, which they lead by one in the loss column with the Mavericks having secured the tiebreaker, and No. 5 Utah, which they lead by two with one matchup remaining.
Projected seed: 3Current first-round matchup: NuggetsTiebreaker vs. No. 2 Grizzlies: Grizzlies have clinched via 3-1 head-to-head advantageTiebreaker vs. No. 4 Jazz: Warriors lead season series 2-1 with one to play
Tiebreaker vs. No. 5 Mavericks: Dallas has clinched with 3-1 head-to-head advantage
4. Dallas Mavericks
The Mavericks defeated the Lakers on Tuesday and remain one loss behind No. 3 Golden State with the tiebreaker secured. Dallas effectively leads No. 6 Denver by three games with the tiebreaker secured.
Projected seed: 5
Current first-round matchup: Jazz
Tiebreaker vs. No. 3 Warriors: Dallas has clinched with 3-1 head-to-head advantage
Tiebreaker vs. No. 4 Jazz: Utah currently own as division leader (season series tied 2-2)Tiebreaker vs. No. 6 Nuggets: Dallas has clinched with 2-1 head-to-head advantage
Tiebreaker vs. No. 7 Timberwolves: Dallas leads season series 2-1 with one game to play
5. Utah Jazz
Utah blew a 25-point lead to lose to the Clippers on Tuesday, and is now two games back of the No. 4 Mavericks. Utah is tied with the No. 6 Nuggets (Utah has tiebreaker).
Projected seed: 4Current first-round matchup: Mavericks
Tiebreaker vs. No. 3 Warriors: Jazz trail season series 2-1 with one to play
Tiebreaker vs. No. 4 Mavericks: Utah currently own as division leader (season series tied 2-2)Tiebreaker vs. No. 6 Nuggets: Utah has clinched with 4-0 head-to-head advantage
6. Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets trail the No. 5 Jazz by an effective two games with six to play. The priority is staying out of the play-in. Denver leads No. 7 Minnesota by two games in the loss column with one head-to-head matchup remaining on April 1.
Projected seed: 6
Current play-in matchup: Clippers
Tiebreaker vs. No. 4 Jazz: Utah has clinched with 4-0 head-to-head advantage
Tiebreaker vs. No. 5 Mavericks: Dallas has clinched with 2-1 head-to-head advantageTiebreaker vs. No. 7 Timberwolves: Denver trails season series 2-1 with one game to play
CURRENT PLAY-IN TEAMS
7. Minnesota Timberwolves
The Wolves are two losses back of No. 6 Denver with one head-to-head matchup remaining (April 1). If Minnesota wins that game, it would clinch the season tiebreaker over Denver.
Projected seed: 7
Current play-in matchup: Clippers
Tiebreaker vs. No. 6 Nuggets: Timberwolves lead season series 2-1 with one game to play
Tiebreaker vs. No. 8 Clippers: L.A. has clinched with 3-1 head-to-head advantage
8. Los Angeles Clippers
The Clippers are pretty firm to remain in the No. 8 spot, leading the No. 9 Pelicans by four games in the loss column with six to play.
Projected seed: 8
Current play-in matchup: TimberwolvesTiebreaker vs. No. 9 Pelicans: New Orleans has clinched with 3-0 head-to-head advantageTiebreaker vs. No. 10 Lakers: Clippers have clinched with 4-0 head-to-head advantage
9. New Orleans Pelicans
New Orleans is one game up on the No. 10 Spurs and No. 11 Lakers. New Orleans has one game left vs. the Lakers on Friday.
Projected seed: 9
Current play-in matchup: Lakers
Tiebreaker vs. No. 10 Lakers: Pelicans have clinched via 2-0 head-to-head advantage with one matchup left
Tiebreaker vs. No. 11 Spurs: San Antonio has clinched via 3-1 head-to-head advantage
10. San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs moved into the No. 10 seed by virtue of the Lakers’ loss to Dallas on Tuesday. San Antonio is tied in the loss column with the Lakers but currently owns the tiebreaker by way of a better conference record. San Antonio trails the No. 9 Pelicans by one in the loss column (Spurs have the tiebreaker).
Projected seed: 10
Current play-in matchup: PelicansTiebreaker vs. No. 9 Pelicans: San Antonio has clinched via 3-1 head-to-head advantageTiebreaker vs. No. 11 Lakers: San Antonio currently owns via conference record (head-to-head tied 2-2, neither team leads division)
OUTSIDE LOOKING IN
No. 11 Los Angeles Lakers: Tied in the loss column with No. 10 Spurs, who currently own the tiebreaker
EASTERN CONFERENCE
The Heat are tied in the loss column with No. 2 Milwaukee. The Heat have a one-loss lead over the No. 3 Sixers and No. 4 Celtics. Miami has one head-to-head matchup left with Boston on Wednesday.
Projected seed: 1Current first-round matchup: TBD (play-in results)Tiebreaker vs. No. 2 Milwaukee: Heat currently own via conference record (season series 2-2, both teams leading division)
Tiebreaker vs. No. 3 Boston: Celtics have clinched via 2-0 head-to-head advantage with one matchup left
Tiebreaker vs. No. 4 Philadelphia: Heat currently own via conference record (season series tied 2-2, both teams leading division)Tiebreaker vs. No. 5 Chicago: Heat have clinched via 3-0 head-to-head advantage with one matchup remaining
The Bucks are tied in the loss column with the No. 1 Heat and No. 2 Sixers. They play Philly for the final time Tuesday night in a game that will decide the season tiebreaker. The Bucks lead the No. 4 Celtics by one in the loss column with one head-to-head matchup remaining on April 7.
Projected seed: 2
Current first-round matchup: Raptors
Tiebreaker vs. No. 1 Miami: Miami currently owns via conference record (season series 2-2, both teams leading division)
Tiebreaker vs. No. 3 Boston: Bucks trail season series 2-1 with one game remainingTiebreaker vs. No. 4 Philadelphia: Bucks have clinched via 2-1 head-to-head advantageTiebreaker vs. No. 5 Chicago: Bucks lead season series 2-0 with two games remaining
The Celtics fell to Toronto on Monday and now trail the No. 1 Heat and No. 2 Bucks by one in the loss column with six games to play. Boston controls its own destiny to pass both Miami and Milwaukee with one game left against each and paths to the tiebreaker over both. If the No. 4 Sixers and Celtics finished tied, being that they’re both in the Atlantic Division and the season series is tied 2-2, the next tiebreaker would be division record, which would go to Boston at the moment (9-7 vs. 6-9 for Philly).
Projected seed: 3
Current first-round matchup: Bulls
Tiebreaker vs. No. 1 Miami: Celtics have clinched via 2-0 head-to-head advantage with one matchup leftTiebreaker vs. No. 2 Milwaukee: Celtics lead season series 2-1 with one game remainingTiebreaker vs. No. 4 Philadelphia: Celtics currently own as Atlantic division leader (head-to-head tied 2-2)Tiebreaker vs. No. 5 Chicago: Season series tied 1-1 with one game remaining
The Sixers lost to Milwaukee on Tuesday and are now one back of the the No. 1 Heat and No. 2 Bucks with seven games to play. The Sixers are tied in the loss column with the No. 3 Celtics, who currently have the edge via a slightly better win percentage. If the No. 4 Sixers and Celtics finished tied, being that they’re both in the Atlantic Division and the season series is tied 2-2, the next tiebreaker would be division record, which would go to Boston at the moment (9-7 vs. 6-9 for Philly).
Projected seed: 4
Current first-round matchup: Cavs vs. Nets play-in winner
Tiebreaker vs. No. 1 Miami: Miami currently owns via conference record (season series tied 2-2, both teams leading division)
Tiebreaker vs. No. 2 Milwaukee: Bucks have clinched via 2-1 head-to-head advantageTiebreaker vs. No. 3 Boston: Celtics currently owns as Atlantic division leader (head-to-head tied 2-2)Tiebreaker vs. No. 5 Chicago: Sixers have clinched via 4-0 head-to-head advantage
5. Chicago Bulls
The Bulls are suddenly clinging to a playoff berth, tied with the No. 6 Raptors and just one game up on the No. 7 Cavs. Fortunately, Chicago has the tiebreaker over both with seven games left. SportsLine projections have the Bulls falling below Toronto and ending up as the No. 6 seed.
Projected seed: 6
Current first-round matchup: Celtics
Tiebreaker vs. No. 1 Miami: Heat have clinched via 3-0 head-to-head advantage with one matchup remaining
Tiebreaker vs. No. 2 Philadelphia: Sixers have clinched via 4-0 head-to-head advantage
Tiebreaker vs. No. 3 Milwaukee: Bulls trail season series 2-0 with two games remainingTiebreaker vs. No. 4 Boston: Season series tied 1-1 with one game remainingTiebreaker vs. No. 6 Toronto: Chicago has clinched tiebreaker via 3-1 head-to-head advantageTiebreaker vs. No. 7 Cleveland: Chicago has clinched via 3-1 head-to-head advantage
6. Toronto Raptors
The Raptors beat Boston on Monday to remain one game ahead of the Cavs for the No. 6 seed (Cleveland has the tiebreaker). The Raptors are also tied with the No. 5 Bulls (Chicago has clinched the tiebreaker). SportsLine projections have the Raptors jumping Chicago and finishing as the No. 5 seed.
Projected seed: 5
Current play-in matchup: Nets
Tiebreaker vs. No. 5 Chicago: Chicago has clinched tiebreaker via 3-1 head-to-head advantageTiebreaker vs. No. 7 Cleveland: Cavs have clinched via 3-0 head-to-head advantage with game remaining
CURRENT PLAY-IN TEAMS
The Cavaliers have fallen into the play-in, one game back of the No. 6 Raptors with seven to play (Cleveland has the tiebreaker) and one game back of the No. 5 Bulls (Chicago has the tiebreaker). The Cavs have a three-loss lead over the No. 8 Nets. SportsLine projections have Cleveland sticking at No. 7.
Projected seed: 7
Current first-round matchup: NetsTiebreaker vs. No. 5 Chicago: Bulls have clinched via 3-1 head-to-head advantageTiebreaker vs. No. 6 Toronto: Cavs have clinched via 3-1 head-to-head advantage
8. Brooklyn Nets
The Nets have a one-loss lead over the Hornets, who have secured the tiebreaker, with six to play. The Nets also lead the No. 10 Hawks by one in the loss column with one head-to-head matchup remaining.
Projected seed: 8
Current play-in matchup: CavsTiebreaker vs. No. 9 Charlotte: Hornets have clinched via 2-1 head-to-head advantageTiebreaker vs. No. 10 Atlanta: Nets have clinched via 2-0 head-to-head advantage with one game remaining
The Hornets fell to Denver on Monday to drop back below Brooklyn, which they now trail by one in the loss column (Charlotte has the tiebreaker). Charlotte is tied in the loss column with No. 10 Atlanta (Hornets currently own a slight edge in the tiebreaker with one fewer conference loss).
Projected seed: 9
Current play-in matchup: Hawks
Tiebreaker vs. No. 8 Brooklyn: Hornets have clinched via 2-1 head-to-head advantage
Tiebreaker vs. No. 10 Atlanta: Hornets currently own via conference record
The Hawks are tied in the loss column with the No. 9 Hornets. The Hawks trail the No. 8 Nets by one in the loss column with one matchup remaining against Brooklyn (the Nets have already clinched the tiebreaker).
Projected seed: 10
Current play-in matchup: Hornets
Tiebreaker vs. No. 8 Brooklyn: Nets have clinched via 2-0 head-to-head advantage with one game remaining
Tiebreaker vs. No. 9 Charlotte: Charlotte currently owns via conference win percentage
