2022 NBA Playoff Picture: Lakers fall back below play-in line; Nets, Hornets, Hawks in three-way tie for No. 8


The Lakers found themselves back inside the play-in picture for about 24 hours after San Antonio lost to Memphis on Wednesday, then they dropped right back out with their own loss to Utah on Thursday. The Lakers are now at No. 11 in the West, tied in the loss column with San Antonio, which owns the tiebreaker via conference record. 

In the East, the Sixers fell to No. 4 after their loss to Detroit. Boston technically moves ahead of the Sixers by virtue of having one more victory, but they are tied in the loss column. 

Also in the East, the No. 8 Nets fell into a three-way tie with the No. 9 Hornets and No. 10 Hawks. We’ll explain the three-way tiebreaker rules below. 

The Knicks and Wizards have both been officially eliminated, so the East’s 10 postseason teams are set with it just being a matter of seeding from this point forward. 

We’re going to be keeping close tabs on the playoff race with daily updates the rest of the way. Below is where things stand entering play on Friday, April 1.

NOTE: Our SportsLine model, developed by predictive data engineer Stephen Oh, simulates the entire season 10,000 times and is constantly updating to reflect changing circumstances to produce the most unbiased and precise projections imaginable

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WESTERN CONFERENCE

Phoenix has clinched the No. 1 overall seed. 

Current first-round matchup: TBD (play-in results)  

The Grizzlies have clinched the No. 2 seed. 

3. Dallas Mavericks 

The Mavericks and Warriors are tied in the loss column (Dallas has sealed the tiebreaker). Dallas is an effective three games up on No. 6 Denver with the tiebreaker secured, and two games up on No. 5 Utah (Jazz currently own tiebreaker). Dallas has clinched a playoff spot. 

Projected seed: 3
Current first-round matchup: Nuggets
Tiebreaker vs. No. 4 Warriors: Dallas has clinched with 3-1 head-to-head advantage
Tiebreaker vs. No. 5 Jazz: Utah currently owns as division leader (season series tied 2-2)Tiebreaker vs. No. 6 Nuggets: Dallas has clinched with 2-1 head-to-head advantage
Tiebreaker vs. No. 7 Timberwolves: Dallas leads season series 2-1 with one game to play

4. Golden State Warriors

The Warriors are tied in the loss column with Dallas (Mavericks own the tiebreaker). The Warriors lead the No. 5 Jazz and No. 6 Nuggets by two in the loss column. Golden State plays its final head-to-head vs. Utah on Saturday. 

Projected seed: 4Current first-round matchup: JazzTiebreaker vs. No. 3 Mavericks: Dallas has clinched with 3-1 head-to-head advantageTiebreaker vs. No. 5 Jazz: Warriors lead season series 2-1 with one to playTiebreaker vs. No. 6 Denver: Nuggets have clinched via 3-1 head-to-head advantage

5. Utah Jazz 

Utah is tied in the loss column with No. 6 Denver and has clinched the tiebreaker. The Jazz trail No. 4 Golden State by two in the loss column with one head-to-head remaining. 

Projected seed: 5Current first-round matchup: Warriors
Tiebreaker vs. No. 3 Mavericks: Utah currently owns as division leader (season series tied 2-2)Tiebreaker vs. No. 4 Warriors: Jazz trail season series 2-1 with one to play
Tiebreaker vs. No. 5 Nuggets: Jazz have clinched with 4-0 head-to-head advantage
Tiebreaker vs. No. 7 Timberwolves: Jazz have clinched via 3-1 head-to-head advantage

6. Denver Nuggets 

The Nuggets are tied with the Jazz in the loss column (Utah owns the tiebreaker) with five games remaining. Denver is three games up on the Timberwolves with one head-to-head matchup remaining. 

Projected seed: 6
Current play-in matchup: MavericksTiebreaker vs. No. 3 Mavericks: Dallas has clinched with 2-1 head-to-head advantageTiebreaker vs. No. 4 Warriors: Nuggets have clinched via 3-1 head-to-head advantageTiebreaker vs. No. 5 Jazz: Utah has clinched with 4-0 head-to-head advantage
Tiebreaker vs. No. 7 Timberwolves: Denver trails season series 2-1 with one game to play

CURRENT PLAY-IN TEAMS

7. Minnesota Timberwolves

The Timberwolves fell to Toronto on Wednesday and are now three games back in the loss column of the No. 6 Nuggets, whom they play on Friday night. They trail the No. 5 Jazz by an effective four games as Utah has sealed the tiebreaker. 

Projected seed: 7
Current play-in matchup: Clippers
Tiebreaker vs. No. 5 Jazz: Utah has clinched via 3-1 head-to-head advantage
Tiebreaker vs. No. 6 Nuggets: Timberwolves lead season series 2-1 with one game to play

8. Los Angeles Clippers

The Clippers have sealed a spot in the play-in tourney; they can’t get into the top six and they can’t fall out of the top 10. They’re almost assured of ending at No. 8 with a three-game lead on the Pelicans with five to play. 

Projected seed: 8
Current play-in matchup: TimberwolvesTiebreaker vs. No. 9 Pelicans: New Orleans has clinched with 3-0 head-to-head advantageTiebreaker vs. No. 10 Lakers: Clippers have clinched with 4-0 head-to-head advantage

9. New Orleans Pelicans

New Orleans is two games up on the No. 10 Spurs and No. 11 Lakers. New Orleans has one game left vs. the Lakers on Friday.

Projected seed: 9
Current play-in matchup: Spurs
Tiebreaker vs. No. 10 Spurs: San Antonio has clinched via 3-1 head-to-head advantageTiebreaker vs. No. 11 Lakers: Pelicans have clinched via 2-0 head-to-head advantage with one matchup left

10. San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs moved into the No. 10 seed by virtue of the Lakers’ loss to Utah on Thursday. San Antonio is tied with the Lakers but currently owns the tiebreaker by way of a better conference record. San Antonio trails the No. 9 Pelicans by two in the loss column (Spurs have the tiebreaker). 

Projected seed: 10
Current play-in matchup: PelicansTiebreaker vs. No. 9 Pelicans: San Antonio has clinched via 3-1 head-to-head advantageTiebreaker vs. No. 11 Lakers: San Antonio currently owns via conference record (head-to-head tied 2-2, neither team leads division)

OUTSIDE LOOKING IN

Los Angeles Lakers: Tied with No. 10 San Antonio (Spurs own tiebreaker)

EASTERN CONFERENCE

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The Heat defeated Boston on Wednesday and remain tied with No. 2 Milwaukee in the loss column (Miami owns the tiebreaker via conference record). The Heat have a two-loss lead over the No. 3 Celtics and No. 4 Sixers with five games to play The Heat have clinched a playoff spot. 

Projected seed: 1Current first-round matchup: TBD (play-in results)Tiebreaker vs. No. 2 Milwaukee: Heat currently own via conference record (season series 2-2, both teams leading division)
Tiebreaker vs. No. 3 Boston: Celtics have clinched via 2-1 head-to-head advantage
Tiebreaker vs. No. 4 Philadelphia: Heat currently own as division leader (season series tied 2-2)
Tiebreaker vs. No. 5 Chicago: Heat have clinched via 3-0 head-to-head advantage with one matchup remaining

The Bucks edged the Nets on Thursday and remain tied in the loss column with the No. 1 Heat (tiebreaker info below). The Bucks lead the No. 3 Celtics and No. 4 Sixers by two games in the loss column; they still have one game vs. Boston left. Milwaukee has clinched a playoff spot. 

Projected seed: 2
Current first-round matchup: Cavs vs. Nets play-in winner
Tiebreaker vs. No. 1 Miami: Miami currently owns via conference record (season series 2-2, both teams leading division)
Tiebreaker vs. No. 3 Boston: Bucks trail season series 2-1 with one game remainingTiebreaker vs. No. 4 Philadelphia: Bucks have clinched via 2-1 head-to-head advantageTiebreaker vs. No. 5 Chicago: Bucks lead season series 2-0 with two games remaining

The Celtics are tied in the loss column with the No. 4 Sixers and are two back of No. 2 Milwaukee and No. 1 Miami. Boston has one more game vs. Milwaukee. Boston leads No. 5 Chicago and No. 6 Toronto by two in the loss column with one game remaining vs. the Bulls, which will decide the tiebreaker. The Celtics have clinched a playoff spot. 

Projected seed: 3
Current first-round matchup: Raptors
Tiebreaker vs. No. 1 Miami: Celtics have clinched via 2-0 head-to-head advantage with one matchup leftTiebreaker vs. No. 2 Milwaukee: Celtics lead season series 2-1 with one game remainingTiebreaker vs. No. 4 Philadelphia: Celtics currently own with better Atlantic division record (head-to-head tied 2-2)Tiebreaker vs. No. 5 Chicago: Season series tied 1-1 with one game remaining

The Sixers lost to Detroit on Thursday to drop to the No. 4 seed, tied in the loss column with the No. 3 Celtics and two back of the No. 2 Bucks and No. 1 Heat. If the Sixers and Celtics finished tied, being that they’re both in the Atlantic Division and the season series is tied 2-2, the next tiebreaker would be division record, which would go to Boston at the moment (9-7 vs. 6-9 for Philly). 

Projected seed: 4
Current first-round matchup: Bulls
Tiebreaker vs. No. 1 Miami: Miami currently owns via conference record (season series tied 2-2, both teams leading division)  
Tiebreaker vs. No. 2 Milwaukee: Bucks have clinched via 2-1 head-to-head advantageTiebreaker vs. No. 3 Boston: Boston currently owns with better Atlantic division record (head-to-head tied 2-2)Tiebreaker vs. No. 5 Chicago: Sixers have clinched via 4-0 head-to-head advantage

5. Chicago Bulls

The Bulls a basically assured of a top-six seed with an effective four-game lead over the No. 7 Cavs with five to play. Chicago is tied in the loss column with No. 6 Toronto (Bulls have clinched the tiebreaker), and it trails No. 4 Boston by two games with one head-to-head remaining. SportsLine projections have Chicago falling below Toronto to the No. 6 seed. 

Projected seed: 6
Current first-round matchup: 76ers
Tiebreaker vs. No. 1 Miami: Heat have clinched via 3-0 head-to-head advantage with one matchup remaining
Tiebreaker vs. No. 2 Milwaukee: Bulls trail season series 2-0 with two games remainingTiebreaker vs. No. 3 Philadelphia: Sixers have clinched via 4-0 head-to-head advantage
Tiebreaker vs. No. 4 Boston: Season series tied 1-1 with one game remaining
Tiebreaker vs. No. 6 Toronto: Chicago has clinched tiebreaker via 3-1 head-to-head advantageTiebreaker vs. No. 7 Cleveland: Chicago has clinched via 3-1 head-to-head advantage

6. Toronto Raptors 

The Raptors are three games ahead of the Cavs for the No. 6 seed (Cleveland has the tiebreaker). The Raptors are tied with the No. 5 Bulls (Chicago has clinched the tiebreaker). SportsLine projections have the Raptors jumping Chicago and finishing as the No. 5 seed. 

Projected seed: 5
Current play-in matchup: Celtics
Tiebreaker vs. No. 5 Chicago: Chicago has clinched tiebreaker via 3-1 head-to-head advantageTiebreaker vs. No. 7 Cleveland: Cavs have clinched via 3-0 head-to-head advantage with game remaining

CURRENT PLAY-IN TEAMS

The Cavaliers are three games back of the No. 6 Raptors (Cleveland has the tiebreaker) and the No. 5 Bulls (Chicago has the tiebreaker). The Cavs have a two-game lead over the No. 8 Nets with five to play, and they play each other in the final week of the season. 

Projected seed: 7
Current first-round matchup: NetsTiebreaker vs. No. 5 Chicago: Bulls have clinched via 3-1 head-to-head advantageTiebreaker vs. No. 6 Toronto: Cavs have clinched via 3-1 head-to-head advantageTiebreaker vs. No. 8 Brooklyn: Nets lead season series 2-1 with one matchup remaining

8. Brooklyn Nets 

The Nets fell to Milwaukee on Thursday and are now in a three-way tie with No. 9 Charlotte and No. 10 Atlanta with five games to play. At present, Brooklyn gets the edge as the No. 8 seed because in a three-way tie among non-division leaders, the head-to-head winning percentage against the teams involved in the tie becomes the next tiebreaker. Right now, Brooklyn is a combined 3-2 vs. Atlanta and Charlotte; Charlotte is 4-4 against Brooklyn and Atlanta; Atlanta is 2-4 against Charlotte and Brooklyn.

Projected seed: 8
Current play-in matchup: CavsTiebreaker vs. No. 7 Cleveland: Nets lead season series 2-1 with one matchup remainingTiebreaker vs. No. 9 Charlotte: Hornets have clinched via 2-1 head-to-head advantageTiebreaker vs. No. 10 Atlanta: Nets have clinched via 2-0 head-to-head advantage with one game remaining

The Hornets are in a three-way tie with the No. 8 Nets and No. 10 Hawks. At present, Brooklyn gets the edge as the No. 8 seed because in a three-way tie among non-division leaders, the head-to-head winning percentage against the teams involved in the tie becomes the next tiebreaker. Right now, Brooklyn is a combined 3-2 vs. Atlanta and Charlotte; Charlotte is 4-4 against Brooklyn and Atlanta; Atlanta is 2-4 against Charlotte and Brooklyn.

Projected seed: 9
Current play-in matchup: Hawks
Tiebreaker vs. No. 8 Brooklyn: Hornets have clinched via 2-1 head-to-head advantage
Tiebreaker vs. No. 10 Atlanta: Hornets currently own via conference record (season series tied 2-2)

The Hawks are in a three-way tie with the No. 8 Nets and No. 9 Hornets. At present, Brooklyn gets the edge as the No. 8 seed because in a three-way tie among non-division leaders, the head-to-head winning percentage against the teams involved in the tie becomes the next tiebreaker. Right now, Brooklyn is a combined 3-2 vs. Atlanta and Charlotte; Charlotte is 4-4 against Brooklyn and Atlanta; Atlanta is 2-4 against Charlotte and Brooklyn.

Projected seed: 10
Current play-in matchup: Hornets
Tiebreaker vs. No. 8 Brooklyn: Nets have clinched via 2-0 head-to-head advantage with one game remaining
Tiebreaker vs. No. 9 Charlotte: Charlotte currently owns via conference win percentage



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