1# – Losing bias
In the chapter Winning Bias, Ben Taylor writes in his book:
“Narratives, by nature, are simplistic and often dichotomous. They take big, sweeping points and drive them home with little regard for context or variance, often with the purpose to capture attention. As humans, we love characters to play defined roles, like hero and goat. Player A is a winner! Player B, a loser! We yearn for drama and relatable stories, which is why so many everyday qualities are injected into sports narratives.”
Indeed, we tend to draw conclusions about a game or an action based on how it ends. A good shot is only considered good if it goes in, while a game is deemed well-played only when it’s won. Following this line of thought, one might argue that the Celtics lost last night due to a poor performance. Yet, if you ask me, the Celtics played pretty well.
They stayed in the game and even took the lead despite making only 30% of their threes and missing nine free throws. While the Grizzlies needed just 33 attempts from beyond the arc to make 15 three-pointers, the Celtics managed 18 out of 60. Most of these were open threes—great-quality attempts that should have translated into points. Nonetheless, the Celtics couldn’t make the shots they usually do, even as Memphis seemed to be on fire.
I remain confident that this was a strong showing by the Celtics. Variance let them down, but they stayed competitive for the full 48 minutes.
#2 – Memphis leave Jrue Holiday open
As Sam LaFrance noted, one of the game’s big stories was Memphis’s decision to leave Jrue Holiday open. This might seem bold, considering Holiday’s three-point numbers over the past few seasons. However, it worked out well, with the former Bucks player shooting just 4/17 from deep for an overall efficiency of 0.85 points per shot.
Why bet on Holiday missing his shots, much like the Warriors did against Jaylen Brown last winter? Jrue Holiday has been an inconsistent shooter throughout his career and has never had a high volume. The Grizzlies knew they had to make a gamble to disrupt the Celtics’ elite spacing. To do so, they had to leave someone in the starting five unguarded.
In the past, this player might have been Derrick White, as seen in the 2022 Finals. Before the summer trades, it could have been Marcus Smart. Ironically, the Celtics employed a similar strategy against their former player.
#3 – Boston give Marcus Smart the same treatment
In 2017, Mike Prada wrote an article titled Marcus Smart is a terrible shooter who’s somehow essential to the Celtics’ offense. He described Smart as someone who could “fake it till you make it (even if you never do)” by shooting threes despite inefficient results. This often tricked defenses into seeing him as an offensive threat: “he’s so good at pretending to be a legitimate offensive player that he cons defenses into thinking he actually is.”
Now with Memphis, Smart can no longer fool his former team. Just as Jaren Jackson Jr. roamed the paint against Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis did the same against Smart, forcing him into out-of-rhythm pull-ups and negating spacing when the 2022 DPOY was on the floor.
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It’s amusing that both Smart and his “replacement,” Jrue Holiday, were treated similarly in the same game. Both teams even responded the same way—using them as screeners and benching them during clutch moments.
#4 – Grizzlies outpace the Celtics
Not long ago, we discussed the increasing pace of NBA games. The Grizzlies took this trend further last night. Averaging 11.9 seconds per possession, Memphis was three seconds faster than the league average.
With the Celtics playing on a back-to-back, Memphis capitalized on the opportunity to outpace the reigning NBA champions. This was no surprise. The Bulls and the Grizzlies, the two teams with the fastest pace, both rely on speed as a primary strength.
Unlike the Bulls, though, Memphis boasts star players like Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Ja Morant—players who thrive in high-speed situations. The Celtics did their best to keep up but couldn’t overcome their poor shooting luck.
#5 – Boston plays tall and dominate the rebound
The Celtics’ coaching staff anticipated Memphis’s fast pace and emphasis on offensive rebounding. The Grizzlies secure offensive boards on 32% of their misses, ranking among the league’s best in extending possessions.
To counter this, Boston used multiple bigs during various stretches and focused on boxing out effectively. It worked well, as they limited Memphis to grabbing offensive rebounds on just 23% of their misses—a 9% drop from their usual performance.
This reflects the Celtics’ excellent preparation and process for the game.
#6 – Bounce back Payton Pritchard
Against the Bucks, Payton Pritchard struggled to make a shot after a streak of strong offensive games. The beauty of the NBA is that there’s always a chance to bounce back. Less than 24 hours after the Bucks game, Pritchard had the perfect opportunity to redeem himself.
While the Grizzlies ignored Jrue Holiday beyond the arc, they couldn’t afford to do the same with Pritchard. Playing the entire fourth quarter, he kept the Celtics competitive with his shot-making and ability to grab offensive rebounds.
Joe Mazzulla left Pritchard on the floor to close the game, benching Jrue Holiday instead. This improved spacing but also created a potential defensive liability for the Grizzlies to exploit. Every coaching decision has its trade-offs.
#7 – Jaylen Brown’s fourth quarter
Another key coaching decision was leaving Jaylen Brown on the floor for the final 12 minutes. Like Jayson Tatum the night before, Brown scored 14 points in the fourth quarter while also delivering some excellent assists.
After a quiet start, with just five shot attempts in the first three quarters, Brown took over in the fourth. He helped the Celtics regain the lead early in the quarter with smart play-calling, aggressive drives, and post-ups. His offensive surge came as the rest of the team struggled to hit open threes.
While Brown and Pritchard combined to hit 4 of their 7 three-point attempts in the fourth, the rest of the team converted just 1 of 9.
#8 – No answer for JJJ
Jaylen Brown wasn’t the only player to score 14 points in the final 12 minutes—Jaren Jackson Jr., the 2023 DPOY, matched his output. Jackson is not quite the unicorn that Kristaps Porzingis is, but he remains a unique talent: a big man who can dribble, shoot from anywhere, and post up in various positions.
Against the Celtics, Jackson scored against anyone they threw at him. Neemias Queta, Luke Kornet, and Porzingis all struggled to keep up with his quickness, while Jrue Holiday and Jaylen Brown couldn’t match his size or strength.
Fortunately for the Celtics, players like Jackson are rare enough that his dominant performance isn’t a major concern. The same applies to Ja Morant, who made the Celtics’ defense work hard but also shot unusually well from three. Despite facing a unicorn, an offensive superstar, and a high-paced roster, Boston delivered a commendable overall performance.
#9 – Tennessee’s grand theft auto
The Celtics committed just 13 turnovers last night, and every single one was the result of a Memphis steal. There were no shot clock violations, out-of-bounds errors, or offensive fouls—only the Grizzlies’ active hands and defensive pressure.
These steals led to numerous fast-break opportunities for Memphis, who used their length, crowded the paint, and pressured Boston’s ball handlers. However, the Celtics did a great job of recovering on defense after these turnovers, with highlights like Derrick White’s spectacular block showcasing their effort.
#10 – Time to rest
Between December 1st and December 7th, the Celtics played five games—a grueling schedule. Fortunately, they now have a chance to recover. Their next game isn’t until Thursday, when they’ll host another fast-paced team, the Detroit Pistons.
