Key Highlights:
- To be a title contender, you generally need to have an elite offense, elite defense, or be very balanced on both sides of the ball
- As of right now, ten NBA teams fall under at least one of those three categories
- The Boston Celtics look like the early frontrunner to win the NBA title based on their offensive and defensive indicators
Sports are unpredictable. That is a big reason why people love them so much. However, that doesn’t mean that we can’t use data to narrow the range of expected outcomes.
For instance, we don’t know for certain who will win the 2024 NBA Championship. But we can get a feel for which teams have a realistic chance of winning the title by looking at their offensive and defensive ratings. And while we are still early in the 2023-24 season, numbers are starting to stabilize. So, let’s take a look at which teams are looking like legitimate contenders so far.
Three Types of Contenders
In a study I conducted before the start of last season, I found that there are generally three types of teams that make it to the conference finals (usually, if you make the conference finals, you’re a title contender). Those three types of teams are elite offenses, elite defenses, and balanced teams.
For the sake of this article, we will define an “elite offense” as one that is at least five points better than the league average in offensive rating. We will define “elite defense” as one that is at least five points below the league average in defensive rating (remember, when it comes to defense, the lower the rating, the better). And to be a “balanced team,” the team needs to be at least two points better on offense and at least two points lower on defense.
With those parameters in mind, here are the teams that look like title contenders right now.
Click below to jump to each type of contender.
(Sidenote: all of the data we are using is from Basketball Reference.)
1. Elite Offenses
Indiana Pacers
The Indiana Pacers fall under our elite offense category. As it stands, their number-one ranked offense (headlined by Tyrese Haliburton) has an offensive rating of 122.7. Since the league average is currently 114.1 (the league average is the same for both offense and defense), that means Indiana has an offense that is 8.6 points better than the league average.
A fun little wrinkle to monitor here is that the Pacers are close to the all-time record for relative offensive rating, which belongs to the 2003-04 Dallas Mavericks, who had a relative offensive rating of +9.2.
Atlanta Hawks
The second-best offense in the NBA is another Eastern Conference team captained by an elite offensive guard (Trae Young). The Atlanta Hawks have an offensive rating of 120.8 (+6.7), which puts them in our elite offense category of title contenders. As an aside, it’s wild to think that the Hawks have the second-best offense in the NBA and are still nearly two full points behind the Pacers in offensive rating.
Dallas Mavericks
We already mentioned the 2003-04 Mavericks. Well, this version of the franchise is also really good at getting buckets. On the season, Luka Doncic and the gang have propelled the team to an offensive rating of 120.1 (six points better than the league average). Like the other two elite offenses we’ve talked about so far (Atlanta and Indiana), the Mavericks don’t have the same luster on the defensive end. In fact, all three of those teams are in the bottom six in the NBA in defensive rating.
Philadelphia 76ers
The last elite offense on our list is the Philadelphia 76ers. They are barely passing the cutoff for an elite offense, with an offensive rating 5.1 points better than average (119.2). To be fair, they are pretty close to hitting the defensive rating number to have a balanced team. Their defensive rating right now is 112.5, which is 1.6 points below the league average.
2. Elite Defenses
Minnesota Timberwolves
The Minnesota Timberwolves have a below-average offense (offensive rating 113.5), but their league-leading defense is making them look like a contender. With a defensive rating of 106.1, the Timberwolves own a defensive rating eight points below the league average. For those wondering, the best relative defensive rating of all-time belongs to the 2003-04 San Antonio Spurs, who had a defense 8.8 points below the league average.
Orlando Magic
Right now, everyone loves rooting for the Orlando Magic. They are young, have a lot of fun players, and, most importantly, for the sake of this article, they have an elite defense. The Magic currently hold a defensive rating of 107.8, which puts them 6.3 points below the league average. What’s more is that they are managing this output without Wendell Carter Jr., who has missed the last ten games with a left hand injury.
Houston Rockets
This is wild to think. After being one of the very worst teams in basketball (the third worst team, to be exact), the Houston Rockets are showing some signs of contender status. Their offense isn’t much to write home about (one point below the league average), but their defense has been absolutely suffocating. The Rockets currently have a defensive rating of 108.7, which is 5.4 points below the league average. That’s just enough for them to be in our elite defense category.
3. Balanced Teams
Boston Celtics
The first team in the balanced category is the Boston Celtics. Their offensive rating is 118.4 (4.3 points better than the league average), and their defensive rating is 108.2 (-5.9 points lower than the league average). You may have noticed that, along with meeting the criteria to fall under our balanced category, the Celtics also have what we consider to be an “elite defense.” They are the only team on this list to qualify for multiple categories.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Speaking of young fun teams that everyone loves to watch, if you love the Magic, you surely love the Oklahoma City Thunder. Like the Magic, the Thunder are awesome on defense. They have a defensive rating of 109.3, which gives them a rating 4.8 points lower than the league average. But their offense is much better than Orlando’s. The Thunder’s offensive rating is 118.3, which is 4.2 points above the league average.
Unlike the other balanced team we’ve mentioned so far, Oklahoma City does not also qualify for a second category. They are very close to having both an elite offense and defense. But as of right now, they don’t hit the official threshold for either of those.
Denver Nuggets
The third and final team in the balanced category is the defending champion Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets have an offensive rating of 117.1 (three points above the league average) and a defensive rating of 112.1 (two points below the league average). It is also worth noting that those numbers may be underselling how good they are on both sides of the ball, as their second-best player, Jamal Murray, has missed the last eight games with a right hamstring strain.
Who Will Win The 2024 NBA Title?
In total, we have ten teams that currently fall under at least one of the three categories we’ve carved out. That narrows down the playing field by about 67%. But before we talk about which of those contenders looks the best, we should point out some teams that didn’t fit into any of our categories.
You may have noticed that the Miami Heat, Milwaukee Bucks, Phoenix Suns, Los Angeles Lakers, Sacramento Kings, and Los Angeles Clippers were all not a part of this list. That doesn’t mean they can’t contend for the title (Miami didn’t fit into any of these categories last year, and they still made it all the way to the NBA Finals). It’s just something to keep an eye on as the season progresses.
Anyway, if I was forced to say which of the ten teams we discussed looks the most like a title contender, I would say it’s the Celtics. Not only have they demonstrated incredible balance on both sides of the ball, but they are literally 0.7 points on offense away from falling under all three categories.
It’s still super early, and like we said, sports can be incredibly unpredictable. But right now, the Celtics are looking like the frontrunner to take home the 2024 NBA title.
