The definitive guide to Jaylen Brown’s All-Defense campaign

The world is full of unsolved mysteries, unexplainable phenomena, and the unanswerable. We aren’t here to directly address those things, things like: do you eat or drink a Go-Gurt? Where does my cat go when I’m convinced she’s lost then bounds out from somewhere 10 minutes later? Does Jaylen Brown deserve to make an All-Defense team?

That is not the purpose of this particular article. Instead, we are here to support those that are inclined to make the argument that Jaylen does deserve it. Those that will look Herb Jones, OG Anunoby, and Jrue Holiday in the face and say, “not this year, boys.”

It won’t be an exercise in raw bias however. Every defender has faults, even the best. This will be an honest look at the good and bad from Jaylen Brown’s defense this season. First, we will take a look at the stats that back Jaylen Brown’s case, then the video portion of our presentation will commence. On to the fun stuff.

The numbers

Evaluating defense with stats is a fickle endeavor, but we are going to try it anyway. The more traditional defensive stats don’t jump out for JB. He’s outside the top-50 in individual defensive rating, the Celtics defense gets about 3.5 points per 100 possessions worse when Jaylen’s on the court (per PBP Stats), and his 1.7 stocks (steals and blocks) per game is good, but not great.

The most damning of those numbers is the on/off differential. It’s never a good sign when your team gets worse on either side of the ball when you play, but context matters. Often, Mazzulla will pull Tatum and one of our elite defensive guards for some combination of bench players (usually Hauser and Horford) halfway through the first and third quarters. While Al is still great, that’s, to put it mildly, a defensive downgrade. Brown logs a lot of minutes against starters, many without his co-star, which undoubtedly hurts the defense. So the differential is a mark against Brown’s candidacy, but it’s not the death knell it appears to be at first.

The advanced metrics are more all over the place than a Greek yogurt after my kid ignores the spoon and tries to “drink” it. BBall Index’s Defensive LEBRON has him middle of the road and he’s been measuring as a negative defender all season in DARKO’s Defensive Daily Plus Minus. With that said, he’s in the 89th percentile of Dunks and Threes’ Defensive Estimated Plus-Minus. What does all that tell us? Not a whole lot, but if we dig a little deeper, things start to get interesting (or at least I, and probably you, hope so).

Like that one ex-coworker I always use as a reference, there are a few that speak very highly of JB. He’s 24th among qualifying players in defensive win shares, which translates your defensive box score impact into the number of wins you’ve added. Pretty good, and once you start getting into play-type data, Jaylen’s case starts to shine.

He’s top-20 in defending three of the most common NBA play-types (per Synergy).

Isolations:

Post ups:

Off-ball Screens:

He’s in the top half defending pick and roll ballhandlers and spot ups, but much closer to average than elite against those play-types. That all adds up to a player that is elite at defending three very important plays and not really bad at defending any, at least according to the stats.

It’s also worth noting that Jaylen is a good defensive rebounder for his position. He averages 4.4 a game and has a 11.7% Defensive Rebounding Percentage, which puts him at 45th of 174 qualifying guards and forwards (sorted by NBA.com’s weird positions, so guys like Scottie Barnes are included). That’s good, easily above average, but not great. He also has effectively no impact on how the Celtics defensive rebound as a team.

The defensive stats aren’t otherworldly for JB, but that’s not uncommon for just about every non-big in the NBA. Even defenders with elite reputations have statistical black-eyes, which might be the lamest black-eyes in existence. Most importantly, the stats don’t undermine an argument for Jaylen making the All-Defense team, which means we are on to step 2.

The video

Regardless of JB’s All-Defense candidacy, he’s improved massively as a defender this season. That alone should be encouraging, but we aren’t here for participation trophies or to reward trying really hard, otherwise Aaron Nesmith would be a front-runner for Defensive Player of the Year. Jaylen hasn’t just improved defensively, he’s gotten really, really good.

Something he’s always had in the bag is his ability to guard straight-up a variety of different players. In playoffs past, he’s held down Pascal Siakam and was the most effective Celtic on James Harden last year (it’s a shame the season was cancelled after the Sixers series, and we never got to see how that playoff run ended). That versatility has taken center stage this season. Here he is on Bam and Rozier in the same possession, cutting them both off.

His anti-Siakam agenda has continued this season. It almost feels like bullying at this point.

He’s great against these big ballhandler types, but it’s his ability to match strength with those types and then match quickness with point guards is where JB really wrings out his defensive value. This next clip is from the same game. Say what you want about Dennis Schroeder, and I have, but there’s no denying he’s one of the quickest players in the NBA.

It’s extremely difficult to not only match Dennis’ quickness, but to pull your hands back to avoid fouling while doing so is extremely high-level stuff. To put it simply, Jaylen Brown is an elite on-ball defender, and it would be hard to argue otherwise.

I wish we could end it there. I wish I could get on an aircraft carrier, stand in front of a comically large sign with the background of the American flag that says “Mission Accomplished,” give a big ol’ thumbs up and declare victory. Jaylen Brown is All-Defense.

Unfortunately, off-ball defense exists. All is not lost, however. JB is without a doubt a worse off-ball defender than on, and in years past he’s been hopelessly lost at times, but he’s worlds better this season. He’s rarely getting backdoor cut and has been doing an excellent job of shading off shooters to help, and getting back when the kick-out comes.

During more complicated sets, like this Miami out of timeout play, he’s understanding his responsibilities quicker.

He jumps out to Herro once he recognizes it’s a double pindown, and then passes him off and switches onto Love, capping the possession off with a hard-fought defensive board. Very good stuff.

He’s also opportunistic when he senses a chance to force a turnover. After he cuts off Cole Anthony beautifully, he ambushes Franz Wagner with his quick and powerful hands.

His diligence off-ball has absolutely improved, and he’s doing a much better job tracking shooters through screening actions. But his it’s still lacking. He just doesn’t read the game in the same way elite off-ball defenders do and is prone to small lapses that can lead to points. Like on this play, he gets caught ball watching, which allows Buddy Hield to lift from the corner without any adjustment from JB. He’s forced to scramble back to Hield who blows right by for an easy 2.

Or on this play where he tries to pass of Siakam to Sam Hauser, who is already covering the corner shooter. It allows Toronto to get a very easy mismatch with Siakam on Hauser, which they promptly ignore. Then, Gary Trent takes a bad three, which he makes.

His flighty off-ball skills may not have hurt the Cs on that play, but it’s indicative of his weaknesses in that phase of the game. These aren’t defense undermining mistakes, but when you’re trying to make an All-Defense team, stuff like this matters. High level defenders take care of the details on every single possession. There’s still a few too many miscommunications where Brown is heavily featured.

Perhaps KP should have switched onto Bey instead of dropped on this play, but it’s hard to give Jaylen the benefit of the doubt with his track record.

Regardless of his faults, there’s immense value in an elite and versatile on-ball defender that’s also pretty good off-ball. Jaylen’s ability to man up against just about any player in the league while keeping the defense mostly intact off-ball is a big piece of the Celtics’ machine. The Cs can unleash him on just about any star player and trust that he will hold his own.

So, does Jaylen Brown deserve to make the All-Defense team? Honestly, I’d lean towards no, but the fact you can even make a (hopefully) cogent argument about his All-Defense candidacy is a massive referendum on his defensive improvement. Jaylen Brown may not yet be the elite of elite defenders, but with the way he improves every season, I wouldn’t put it past him.