I have a theory that different Celtics players shooting the basketball can elicit a wide range of emotions and physical reactions, and I think this is worthy of academic study.
Getting this study funded has proved more difficult than I thought, but I can anecdotally confirm that how I feel when certain Celtics take a shot varies massively from player to player. It goes beyond if I think the shot is going in or not, but that certainly factors into the experience.
Since the World Health Organization and the Center for Disease Control don’t want a piece of this groundbreaking research, I’ve decided to produce a first draft here at CelticsBlog. Call it an ad-hoc peer reviewing process.
I’ve decided to situate this study on the three-pointer, as the Celtics rely more and more on winning the three-point variance battle. They attempt 43 entire threes per game, the most of any team in the league. Everyone in the rotation can shoot, so the Celtics’ analytics-based staff wants to exploit that advantage to its fullest.
Since this is a first draft, we’re only ranking the five Celtics who attempt the most threes per game. You can imagine Jrue Holiday, Payton Pritchard, and Al Horford come in somewhere behind these guys, though Big Al might claw his way into the top five if he keeps it up.
These guys are ranked from most to least confidence-inducing-when-they-shoot-a-three. Maybe one day with more funding we can extend this to the entire roster, or perhaps—with a lot more funding—the entire league.
Without further ado, I present the first draft of the Shooter Freak-Out Index: how I feel when each Celtic shoots a three pointer.
(For maximum objectivity, I’m going to give an example of each guy’s shot with a clip of them missing a three from the December 12th win over the Cleveland Cavaliers. Misses tell us more than makes sometimes.)
1. Derrick White
Reaction when the ball is in the air: “Good take, DWhite.”
I’m not sure when exactly this happened, but I find myself completely confident that every shot Derrick White takes is going to go in. It’s not backed up by any world-destroying stats, though White is shooting a destructive 52 percent from three in the Celtics’ last four games. It’s backed up by unyielding confidence that this man will make the right decisions.
White is probably the Celtics’ fourth best scoring option on most nights, but when he asserts himself on offense it’s legitimately beautiful. I’ve long been a fan of his two-hard-dribbles-half-spin-push-shot move, but he’s added a willingness to shoot threes to his game this year. You can never have too much three-point shooting, so that’s gravy.
But why is every shot a “good take” in my book? I think it’s because White has proven over and over that he makes the right decisions — be it an incising pass to a cutter, a calculated retreat and reset, or a catch and shoot three. When push comes to shove, White can be the only one holding things together.
This is a no-brainer shot, and White was right to pull the trigger. He may not have made it, but those are the shots you want. In short, I trust him with my life. If he chooses to shoot it, I’m sure that’s the right call.
2. Sam Hauser
Reaction when the ball is in the air: (raises one hand to signal the three is up) “Look at Sam. Hit that, Sam. Hit that.”
I’d like to take this moment to clarify that this is not a list of players that I would like taking the most shots.
I realize that in order to run an effective offense, the Celtics should probably funnel things through Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Kristaps Porzingis most of the time. But this isn’t a list of who I’d want taking the shot with the game on the line.
Hauser has a swag this year that I hadn’t seen before. I don’t see anything noticeably different in his shot form, save for the occasional Kyle Korver single-dribble-off-a-screen move that he never used to employ, shown in the clip above.
Nobody extend this analogy any further than this, but his shot has the Klay Thompson feel to it, where you’re sure that the ball is just going to levitate into the hoop. And he’s down to take contested threes and can make them, which is an important quality of three-and-D role players.
Hauser has shot the lights so out this year that I think we’ll have to buy some new lightbulbs, hitting 44.4 percent of his three-pointers, good for the third-highest clip in the NBA (minimum 100 attempts). Last year, I was wary when Hauser got too trigger-happy, but it’s clear that Mazzulla & Co. have given him the green light to fire away this year. If he keeps hitting, I’ll keep wanting him to shoot.
3. Jayson Tatum
Reaction when the ball is in the air: (nods head) “Mhmm. Yep. Yep.”
Tatum is the epitome of a head-nod type shooter. I will almost never fault him for taking a three-ball, as Tatum shoots a respectable percentage considering the volume of threes he attempts. He is hilariously tall with an even hilariously-er high release point, meaning that no defender can really offer a true contest. Put simply, a Tatum triple is never really a bad shot.
But Tatum does occasionally have better options. He’s one of the craftiest finishers in the league, and has developed a lethal post game that basically elevates his game to one you’d make in a basketball science lab. Tatum taking a pull-up three with 17 seconds left on the shot clock isn’t always the Celtics’ best option, but I always feel okay about it when it’s up.
He’s also the Celtics’ best player, and I have a soft spot for my team’s best player taking shots. Like, what’s the point of having a top-5 player in the league if you don’t want him to shoot?
4. Kristaps Porzingis
Reaction when the ball is in the air: “Really? Okay. Wow.”
Porzingis is so massively huge that I think I need to recalibrate how I think about shooting geometry.
He’s a career 36 percent shooter from beyond the arc, which doesn’t sound real when you consider that he’s at least 7 feet, 3 inches tall. You thought Tatum was immune to contests? Let me introduce you to KP who shoots over defenders like they’re eight-year-olds playing with their dad in the driveway.
It’s not Porzingis’ fault, but all of that leads to some unease on my end when he chucks a three. He doesn’t always step right up to the line, and since his legs are so long his shots can appear way further than they actually are to him.
Doesn’t something just look weird about that to you? Maybe it’s because I’m not yet comfortable with Porzingis, as he’s still relatively new in town. He’s like that new uncle your aunt just married — you think he’s probably cool, but you’re not quite ready to anoint him the official Cool Uncle. I’ll warm up to his shot, but give me until the All-Star break.
5. Jaylen Brown
Reaction when the ball is in the air: (cautiously optimistic head-nod) “Ok Jaylen… _______ (insert ‘argh’ or ‘good work Jaylen’ depending on if it goes in or not)”
My feelings about Brown taking threes is basically an extreme version of the Tatum conversation. He’s a cornerstone of the team, so I’m always okay with him taking shots, and he shoots only a marginally worse percentage on about two fewer attempts.
My greater concern comes with his mechanics, which aren’t nearly as defense-proof as Tatum’s. His shot is much more catapult-like, which allows for more effective contests and greater time to close out. It also isn’t particularly smooth, so if his form breaks down mid shot, it can be a hideous miss.
This is a much bigger problem on his free throws, which he is hitting at a pedestrian 71 percent this season. Brown either swishes the free throw or misses horrifically, sometimes off the front rim. That tells me that he’s a talented shooter that just isn’t reproducing sound mechanics every time at the line.
In the open floor, I still trust Brown to make it when he gets an opportunity. He’s a uniquely gifted scorer, and his shot doesn’t particularly need doctoring beyond maybe removing the hitch that can come when he tries to attack closeouts off the dribble. I still want Jaylen taking the second most shots on the team, but I’ll probably be a little more scared when they’re in the air.
And I’m not going to mince words: When Brown takes a three, I worry about how Celtics media will treat him if he misses a crucial one or in a particularly bad-looking way. I’ve always said that his “turnover struggles” are much more about visuals than they are statistical reality. When things look bad, people freak out about them more. I can’t help but stress about potential media narratives when he takes a big shot.
I think Brown is a great player that has been criticized far more than he’s earned, but that potential criticism definitely affects how much I worry about his shots when they are in the air. It’s irrational, and probably a sign that I’m online a bit too much. But I want everyone to think Brown is awesome, and so I want him to make every shot he puts up.
