The Celtics are built for the playoffs, just ask our usual tropes (part 2)

Catch Part I here.

Trope #2: the refs swallow their whistles

Like Frodo Baggins with The One Ring, the refs have stuffed their whistles in their pockets before we even reached Mt. Doom (the NBA Playoffs in this analogy for some reason). We’ve been witnessing a playoff whistle for weeks, maybe months in the regular season. That begs a few questions, like “are the Playoffs going to allow even more contact?” and “how many have to die before the NBA stops this madness?”

We won’t know the answers to either of these questions until the playoffs start, but if the Play-In games are any indication, it looks like things will be called similar to this last month and a half of the regular season. My guess is the whistle we see in May looks a lot like the one we’ve seen in March and April.

That’s mostly a good thing for the Celtics though. Despite having almost zero reason to care, the Celtics led the league in wins (18-6) and winning percentage from March 1st on. They’ve proven they can win a lot of games when the whistles go away.

The Celtics have a unique profile when it comes to fouling. Like the Invisible Man, who I’m assuming is a character in the Marvel Universe without knowing anything about said universe, fouls tend to disappear when they play.

This probably isn’t particularly surprising, especially coming off whatever that Bucks game was where there were just two total free throws despite some… physicality. I think there’s a few takeaways from the Celtics’ foul profile.

Let’s talk about the defensive side of the ball first, where the only takeaways are positive. Defending without fouling is a massive benefit for any defense and is partly a function of Joe Mazzulla’s contain-style scheme that we discussed in Part I. The Celtics are the opposite of government in the titular film Contagion. They effortlessly impose their defensive will on their opponent, forcing them into the exact types of shots the Celtics want. Perhaps most importantly, this less aggressive style limits straight-line drives that force late rotations and awkward contests, which lead to fouls.

Free throws are some of the most efficient shots in the NBA and have the added benefit of leading to more free throws via the bonus and putting opponents in foul trouble. Defenses that can limit opponent free throws have a clear advantage over foul heavy teams.

That’s not to say the Celtics aren’t physical — they are. Part of the reason they don’t foul is simply because they’ve got elite defenders at basically every position that execute their scheme to perfection. They’ve also got talented rim protectors, one of whom is a guard who can contest and block shots at the rim without fouling.

Offensively, there’s two ways to look at things. If you’re inclined to be a glass half-empty type, then stop reading after this section because I’m going to engage in some propaganda that will make the Ministery of Truth from 1984 blush. That said, you can easily argue that the Celtics inability to draw fouls is a function of how they play offense.

There are two main playstyle elements at the crux of this argument. First, the Celtics don’t attempt a lot of shots around the rim, despite being a very good finishing team (4th highest at rim FG% per pbpstats.com). This shouldn’t be too surprising given how three-heavy their attack is.

Second, the Celtics don’t regularly get downhill via drives, sitting at 27th in the league in drives per game. These two things are undoubtedly linked, but shots at the rim can come in other ways as well via cuts and post ups. Regardless, drives and rim shots tend to lead to foul calls, and viewing the lack of fouls in this context makes it pretty clear why they don’t draw all that many.

Now, please attend your telescreen as we present a word from the Oceania government. There is a way to look at the lack of foul drawing in a positive light. With the refs swallowing their whistles in the playoffs, teams that rely on free throws for a larger portion of their offense will see that benefit reduced. I’m thinking of Jimmy Butler flailing wildly in the Play-In game against Philly to no avail, throwing up several bricks that had zero chance of going in. Playing for fouls in the postseason is a high-risk strategy that can backfire spectacularly. Just look at Joel Embiid’s playoff “success” for evidence of that.

The way the Celtics play offense takes the ref’s influence on their efficiency out of the equation. If you don’t depend on the refs to boost your offense, then you don’t have to worry about the lack of calls. The Celtics play ethical basketball, daring opposing defenses to stop them just before they Hulk-Smash their way to the best offensive rating of all-time. Who needs foul calls anyway?

Trope Compliance – Big Brother gives this an 8 out of 10

Trope #3: you have to win the possession battle

In the playoffs, every possession is magnified; it feels like every shot has an outsized impact on the result of the game. That’s why generating as many possessions and opportunities as possible becomes even more important during playoff time.

Like a land war in Asia, the possession battle can be difficult to win convincingly because it plays out on multiple fronts — the two primaries being turnovers and rebounding. It’s rare to see a team that’s elite on both ends of the glass, doesn’t turn it over, and generates a lot of opponent turnovers. Even those great Golden State teams were turnover prone and regularly one of the worst defensive rebounding teams in the league.

The Celtics’ profile is actually pretty fascinating.

If Jon Snow had a possession battle chart, it would look a lot like this. Just pure morality and fairness. The Celtics don’t ever turn it over and never force turnovers. They’re above average on the offensive and defensive glass, not allowing a large advantage to opponents, but not gaining themselves one either.

The Celtics trust that if both teams play a straight up game without a massive difference in offensive rebounds or turnovers, they are going to win. It’s another area where the Celts dictate the terms of engagement. Don’t commit too many resources to the offensive glass in order to slow transition opportunities, team rebound defensively, take care of the ball, and run Joe’s contain defensive scheme. It’s the basketball equivalent of bringing a knife to a knife fight.

A wise man once said, “a man gotta have a code,” and the Cs’ possession profile is a living embodiment of theirs. Play hard, play smart, and run your stuff, the rest will figure itself out.

Trope compliance – 7 out of 10 people are whistling “The Farmer in the Dell”