There’s no way to sugar coat Xavier’s season thus far.
After record-breaking performances at Cintas Center this season, Xavier set dubious marks at its home venue Tuesday in an 82-72 loss to St. John’s.
Xavier head coach Sean Miller called the defeat the “low point” of the Musketeers’ season. Xavier gave up 20 offensive rebounds for the first time in 12 years and it was the program’s first double-digit loss at Cintas Center under Miller since 2006.
February and March have long been the most important months of a college basketball season. But for those games to even matter, Xavier must start winning in January.
Sean Miller called Tuesday’s loss to St. John’s the “low point” of Xavier’s season. The Musketeers have lost seven of their last 10 games and are 1-4 in Big East play.
Last season, a batch of inexperienced players and multiple season-long injuries led to Xavier’s first losing season in nearly three decades.
Having lost seven of its last 10 games, Xavier has just a 9.9% chance of making the NCAA Tournament, according to TeamRankings.com, and are certainly flirting with back-to-back losing seasons for the first time since 1982.
Is there good news? Yes.
Fans don’t want to hear about what could have been. Plenty of them did a lot of that this fall with the Bengals. However, Xavier’s five losses by six points or less, is a sign this team is not far off from turning this thing around, if they can find a way to win in crunch time.
The other fact is that Xavier’s played just 25% of its Big East regular season games. There’s still time to right the ship, but the margin for error couldn’t be smaller. A longshot is still a shot, nonetheless.
Xavier sophomore Dailyn Swain (3) is averaging 12.7 points and 6.7 rebounds over the last four games.
Handle DePaul and go from there
The typical “Coach Speak” would likely say to treat things one game at a time. That’s Xavier’s only option right now in the midst of a 1-4 start in league play.
Of course, any shred of optimism and hope left for Xavier this season goes out the window if you lose this Saturday in Chicago against DePaul.
DePaul is under a full rebuild in the first year of the Chris Holtmann era, the former Ohio State coach who led the Buckeyes to the NCAA Tournament four times in six-plus seasons.
Following a 7-0 start, DePaul has dropped seven of its last nine. The Blue Demons are 0-5 in Big East play.
DePaul has lost 37 consecutive regular season Big East games since beating No. 8 Xavier at home in Jan. 2023.
Chris Holtmann is back in the Big East after being named DePaul’s next head coach in March 2024. Holtmann, pictured at Butler, led the Bulldogs to the NCAA Tournament in three consecutive seasons from 2015-2017.
Xavier vs. DePaul
Tip: Saturday, 4 p.m., Wintrust Arena (10,387)
TV/Radio: FS1/55 KRC
Ratings: Xavier is No. 57 in KenPom and DePaul is No. 115. In the NCAA NET Rankings, Xavier is No. 66 and DePaul is No. 121.
History: Xavier leads the all-time series 21-13 and has won four straight.
DePaul Blue Demons Scouting Report
Record: 9-7 (0-5 Big East)
Head coach: Chris Holtmann (9-7 at DePaul, first season)
Offense: 77.8 PPG
Defense: 73.2 PPG
Overview: DePaul had a non-conference strength of schedule that ranked No. 352 in KenPom, which is a big reason why the Blue Demons were able to triple its win total from last season (3-29) by late-December.
Still, the hiring of Holtmann has DePaul trending in the right direction despite an obvious rebuilding year. The Blue Demons are 0-5 in the Big East but took Providence and Seton Hall to overtime.
Xavier fans may have heard of DePaul leading scorer Jacob Meyer (14.1 points per game). The sophomore and Coastal Carolina transfer was a Holy Cross High School standout who led the state of Kentucky in scoring as a junior and senior.
Fellow transfer guards Isaiah Rivera (UIC) and CJ Gunn (Indiana) make up a DePaul backcourt trio of double-digit scorers. Down low, 6-foot-11 Davidson transfer David Skogman is the team’s leading rebounder and shoots 52.5% from the field.
Projected lineup
(Pos., Height, Stats)
Conor Enright (G, 6’2″, 7.6 PPG)
Jacob Meyer (G, 6’2″, 14.1 PPG)
CJ Gunn (G, 6’7″, 10.1 PPG)
Troy D’Amico (F, 6’7″, 6.2 PPG)
NJ Benson (F, 6’8″, 7.9 PPG)
Xavier forward Zach Freemantle (32) led the Musketeers with 22 points in Tuesday’s loss to St. John’s.
Xavier Musketeers Scouting Report
Record: 9-7 (1-4 Big East)
Head coach: Sean Miller (172-82 at Xavier, eighth season)
Offense: 79 PPG
Defense: 70.2 PPG
Projected lineup
(Pos., Height, Stats)
Dayvion McKnight (G, 6’0″, 10.9 PPG)
Ryan Conwell (G, 6’4″, 15.9 PPG)
Marcus Foster (G, 6’5″, 8.6 PPG)
Jerome Hunter (F, 6’8″, 6.7 PPG)
Zach Freemantle (F, 6’9″, 17.2 PPG)
Xavier guard Ryan Conwell (7) is third in the Big East in 3-point shooting this season.
Players to watch
Ryan Conwell
Conwell is in need of a bounce-back performance after going just 1-of-10 from the field (1-of-8 from 3-point range) on Tuesday. Conwell is just 5-of-21 overall and 3-of-15 from deep over the last two games.
Xavier is only guaranteed 16 more games. Fifteen to finish the regular season and one game in the Big East Tournament. Conwell is on pace for 98 three-pointers, which puts him in striking distance of Quincy Olivari’s single-season record (106).
Forget all of that, though. Xavier needs help on the glass and Conwell needs to step up. He was a great rebounder at Indiana State (5.8 per game) but is averaging just 2.8 with the Musketeers. Miller wants his guards to produce in multiple ways. Olivar averaged 5.6 per game last season at the No. 2 spot.
Xavier forward Jerome Hunter (2) has started the last four games for the Musketeers.
Keys to a Xavier victory over DePaul
Xavier must be the tougher team
Xavier let down Miller by giving up 20 offensive rebounds Tuesday just a few days after he called for toughness following a loss at Georgetown.
Xavier has to turn that around in Chicago. It’s put up or shut up time and it starts on defense Saturday. Xavier must contain the perimeter, where DePaul shoot nearly 38%. Like Xavier, DePaul gets a lot of its shots blocked and is an offense Xavier can set the tone against with physicality.
Xavier guard Dayvion McKnight (20) is averaging 10.9 points and 4.9 assists per game this season.
Turn defense into offense
Xavier’s half-court offense has been lacking with stagnant spurts this season. At points, it looks so difficult for Xavier to find a quality look, especially inside the arc, unless Zach Freemantle is heating up.
Xavier hasn’t forced a lot of turnovers this season but could against a DePaul offense that is No. 246 in turnover percentage and No. 305 in steal percentage. If the Musketeers can cause turnovers, it leads to more opportunities in the fast break where Xavier thrives.
This article originally appeared on Cincinnati Enquirer: Preview: Keys to a Xavier victory over DePaul Saturday in Chicago
