Forsberg: Nine thoughts on contender C’s and superstar Tatum originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston
With nine straight wins over playoff teams, the Boston Celtics have shimmied up to fifth in the Eastern Conference standings. A showdown with Kevin Durant (Kyrie Irving, too) and the stumbling Brooklyn Nets awaits on Sunday. The Garden should have a playoff-like intensity.
Here are nine thoughts on the state of the surging Celtics as we wait for Sunday’s showdown:
1. Celtics are contenders
There’s no longer a need to qualify conversations about the Celtics with “well, they’ve feasted on inferior competition.” Boston has won 15 of its last 18 games since January 23, morphing from one game under .500 to a once-unimaginable 11 games over .500.
The Celtics have the best point differential in the East, one that suggests the team would be pushing for 55 wins in a normal year. Their late-game woes early in the season — and a maddening propensity to play down to inferior competition — has diminished that total, but Boston might still push towards 50 wins and a top-four spot in the Eastern Conference.
Leading the way
C’s Point Differential
+5.5
Rank in East
1st
Variation
Double
Beyond the nine straight wins over current playoff teams, the Celtics are an East-best 16-14 against teams over .500. No other team in the conference has a winning record in those matchups and teams like the Bulls — two games ahead in the standings — are a meager 12-17 in those matchups. The Celtics’ defense gives this team a chance every single night and so much of what happens after the regular season will hinge on matchups.
2. Defense creeping towards top spot
The Celtics’ defense has been exceptional throughout calendar year 2022 and the team might finally slip past the Golden State Warriors for the top spot in the NBA this weekend.
Boston is allowing 105.4 points per 100 possessions and now sits just a fraction of a point behind the Warriors (105.3).
Story continues
The Suns (105.6) are making their own charge to join the defense party. Since Marcus Smart’s return on January 23, the Celtics are holding teams to 100.4 points per 100 possessions over the last 18 games. That’s 7.1 points better than the next best team in that span (Miami, 107.5).
Jayson Tatum’s passing has clearly leveled up the past couple weeks. Whether it’s a skip pass to Grant Williams for a corner 3-pointer, or threading a needle to find Robert Williams on a roll to the basket, Tatum has been throwing up his binoculars more frequently lately.
Occasionally, a pass will get away from him — the birthday boy launched a cross-court pass Thursday night that nearly blistered a fan about four rows deep holding their own birthday sign. Since Jan. 23, Tatum ranks in the top 20 in assist points generated. Only Nikola Jokic, Pascal Siakam, and DeMar DeRozan had more assist points among non-point guards in that span.
Tatum reacts to his epic matchup vs. Morant in Celtics’ big win
But watching Tatum take over the game, getting to the rim with ease whenever he wanted, and out-duel Ja Morant in the fourth quarter on Thursday night only confirmed his evolution into one of the game’s elite players. He can still go up another level, especially in terms of consistency and impacting the game from start to finish, but he’s not-so quietly asserting himself as one of the game’s best. The visit from Durant on Sunday will provide a monster stage to further showcase his progress.
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4. Mid-range Rob
Forget that Morant left-handed alley-oop, the best highlight from Thursday’s game was Robert Williams punishing the Grizzlies for begging him to shoot by casually dribbling into an elbow jumper.
Williams hasn’t taken a lot of long (14+ feet) midrange jumpers in his NBA career but if teams are going to challenge him, he needs to make them pay. Williams shot 56 percent on all 2-point shots outside of the rim last season, which ranked in 94th percentile among all bigs, per Cleaning the Glass data. It won’t be long until he’s knocking down the occasional 3-pointer.
And a friendly reminder he’ll earn $10.7 million next season — just north of midlevel money — in the first year of a rookie extension that looks better and better each game.
5. Al turns back the clock
There have certainly been nights when Al Horford looks like a 35 year old. But there have been far more when he looks like he’s somehow turned back the clocks.
In the month of February, the Celtics had a defensive rating of 91.0 in Horford’s 279 minutes of floor time. That was more than 10 points better than the team’s already stingy defensive rating for the month.
Horford’s steady back-line defense has been key in allowing Robert Williams to thrive in the roamer role. The one game Horford sat out on the second night of a back-to-back only hammered home how vital he has become to allowing this defense sing.
More encouraging: Over his last 15 games, Horford is shooting just a hair below 40 percent beyond the 3-point arc. That shot has defied him most of the season but it’s imperative that he consistently knock down those open looks in order to take stress off Tatum and Jaylen Brown to carry the offense. Keeping Horford fresh is key for Boston’s playoff hopes, particularly if they see the 76ers along the playoff path.
6. Hunting for 50/40/90
Grant Williams’ shooting splits continue to be a marvel. By now you know the finer points: He’s shooting 44.7 percent on all 3-pointers, a blistering 52 percent from his Corner Office, and he’s at 74 percent on all shots at the rim.
Quietly, Williams is knocking on the door of the elusive 50/40/90 club. He has climbed to 49.5 percent overall from the floor and 92.1 percent at the free throw line. Tatum and Smart are eager to seek him out now because of how confident they are in his ability to knock down open 3-point looks. Sprint out at him and Williams is confident enough now to put the ball on the ground and bully his way to the basket.
It’s enough to make you start wondering how much it might cost to extend Williams this summer when he becomes extension eligible. The Celtics left themselves some room to splurge with Robert Williams’ bargain deal. Some might scoff at the potential price tag Williams has created for himself — probably north of the midlevel at this point, so start the bidding at maybe 4 years, $48 million — but his shooting has become vital for this year’s team.
7. Ime flexing
Asked about his team’s intensity coming out of halftime on Thursday night, Ime Udoka deadpanned, “Well, you’ve got the coach of the month.” Udoka quickly noted he was joking but it was still an amazing and much-deserved flex from a first-year coach who weathered a whole bunch of bumps in the road earlier this season.
Make no mistake, Udoka had missteps along the way but he got his team to completely buy into his defensive philosophies and has been richly rewarded once the Celtics got back to full health. Udoka was absent from Coach of the Year odds sent around by some of the offshore betting outlets earlier this week — a glaring oversight because he will get votes if the Celtics surge into the top half of the East playoff bracket by season’s end.
Udoka deserves a whole lot of credit for not only the team’s defensive evolution but getting Tatum and Brown to evolve as playmakers and squeezing the most out of a thin-on-depth-and-shooting roster this season.
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8. Give Hauser a shot?
You can’t help but feel for Aaron Nesmith, who finally gets a chance to run with the first group and then lands awkwardly playing some gritty defense and will seemingly miss time here based on the pain he was in following the ankle sprain on Thursday night. Even if Brown is able to return for Sunday’s game against the Nets, Udoka could be forced to dig deeper onto his bench for wing depth moving forward.
The Celtics will sign Nik Stauskas to an open roster spot. He’s been throwing flames in the G-League (Boston has raided poor Grand Rapids the past week). But if Udoka trots out a short-minute forward, we’d like to see converted 2-way player Sam Hauser get a look.
We admittedly don’t know if Hauser can hold up defensively but the Celtics should use the injury predicament to find out. Hauser’s shot is a thing of beauty and he could be a low-cost option at the end of Boston’s bench moving forward. Brad Stevens said he yearns to find some young gems. Hauser deserves a glance before Udoka turns to a more established veteran like Stauskas in small minutes.
9. Bench vibes
The 10-day contracts of Malik Fitts and Kelan Martin will expire soon and while the duo hasn’t played much, they’ve been elite end-of-the-bench presences. Boston’s bench celebrations have leveled up with Fitts, Martin, and Luke Kornet leading the charge lately.
Look, if you’re going to be the 14th or 15th man on an NBA roster, you might as well enjoy yourself. And Fitts and Martin deserve credit for simply embracing the fun that comes with a team surging in the second half of the season.
