After Tuesday’s action, the No. 5 Mavericks and No. 12 Blazers are separated by just two games in the loss column. The Lakers have, for the time being, jumped back into the play-in zone and still very much have a shot at rising to a top-six seed. The Warriors fell again on the road.
Below is a comprehensive snapshot of where things stand in the Western Conference playoff and play-in races entering play on Wednsday. This post will update daily throughout the remainder of the regular season, or until all seeds are clinched.
Reminder on how the play-in tournament works: No. 7 plays No. 8 and No. 9 plays No. 10. The winner of the 7-8 game gets the No. 7 seed, while the loser plays the winner of the 9-10 game for the No. 8 seed.
READ: Eastern Conference playoff picture
NOTE: Our SportsLine model, developed by predictive data engineer Stephen Oh, simulates the entire season 10,000 times to produce the most unbiased and precise projections imaginable.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
The Nuggets would have to go in the absolute tank to blow the No. 1 seed. With 17 games to play, they lead No. 2 Kings by seven games and hold an effective eight-game lead over the No. 3 Grizzlies with the tiebreaker secured.
Projected seed: 1Current first-round matchup: TBDTiebreaker vs. Memphis: Denver has clinchedTiebreaker vs. Sacramento: Season series tied 1-1 with one to playTiebreaker vs. Phoenix: Denver leads season series 2-0 with two to play
2. Sacramento Kings (38-26)
By virtue of the Grizzlies’ loss to the Lakers on Tuesday, the Kings jump into the No. 2 spot by way of currently owning the tiebreaker. Sacramento, which has won eight of its last 11, holds a three-game lead over the No. 4 Suns with two head-to-head matchups remaining.
Projected seed: 4Current first-round matchup: vs. TimberwolvesTiebreaker vs. Denver: Tied 1-1 with one to playTiebreaker vs. Memphis: Kings currently own via conference record Tiebreaker vs. Phoenix: Suns lead 2-0 with two to playTiebreaker vs. Golden State: Warriors lead 2-1 with one to play
3. Memphis Grizzlies (38-26)
Memphis falls to No. 3 with its loss to the Lakers on Tuesday. They are tied with the No. 2 Kings and three up in the loss column on the No. 4 Suns.
Projected seed: 2Current first-round matchup: Winner of Mavericks/Clippers play-inTiebreaker vs. Denver: Nuggets have clinchedTiebreaker vs. Sacramento: Kings currently own via conference recordTiebreaker vs. Phoenix: Grizzlies own via division leader
4. Phoenix Suns (36-29)
The Suns are 3-0 since the Durant trade and have a great shot to pass the No. 3 Kings, whom they trail by three games with two head-to-head matchups left. The Suns lead the No. 5 Mavericks by three and the No. 6 Warriors by an effective four games with the tiebreaker secured.
Projected seed: 3Current first-round matchup: vs. WarriorsTiebreaker vs. Memphis: Grizzlies own via division leaderTiebreaker vs. Sacramento: Phoenix leads 2-0 with two to playTiebreaker vs. Golden State: Suns have clinched Tiebreaker vs. Timberwolves: Suns lead 2-1 with one to playTiebreaker vs. Dallas: Suns currently own via conference win percentageTiebreaker vs. Clippers: Suns lead 2-1 with one to play
5. Dallas Mavericks (34-32)
The Mavericks jump back into the fifth seed by virtue of their win over Utah and Golden State’s loss to OKC on Tuesday. The Mavericks are tied in the loss column with No. 6 Warriors and one up on the No. 7 Wolves and No. 8 Clippers.
Projected seed: 7Current first-round matchup: at SunsTiebreaker vs. Phoenix: Suns owns via conference win percentageTiebreaker vs. Golden State: Tied 1-1 with one to playTiebreaker vs. Timberwolves: Wolves clinched Tiebreaker vs. Clippers: Dallas currently owns via conference recordTiebreaker vs. New Orleans: Dallas leads 2-1 with one to play
Tiebreaker vs. Utah: Dallas leads 2-1 with one to playTiebreaker vs. Lakers: Dallas leads 2-1 with one to play
6. Golden State Warriors (34-32)
The Warriors continue to struggle on the road, falling to the Lakers without LeBron James on Sunday in L.A. and again at Oklahoma City on Tuesday. They are tied in the loss column with No. 5 Mavericks and one up on the No. 7 Wolves and No. 8 Clippers. The Warriors play each of those teams one more time as they aim to stay above the play-in cut line.
Projected seed: 5Current first-round matchup: at KingsTiebreaker vs. Phoenix: Suns have clinched Tiebreaker vs. Timberwolves: Warriors lead 2-1 with one to playTiebreaker vs. Dallas: Tied 1-1 with one to playTiebreaker vs. Clippers: Warriors lead 2-1 with one to playTiebreaker vs. New Orleans: Pelicans lead 2-1 with one to play
Tiebreaker vs. Utah: Warriors clinched
Play-In Tournament
7. Minnesota Timberwolves (34-32)
The Wolves fall below the play-in line after losing to the Sixers on Tuesday, one back of No. 6 Warriors and No. 5 Mavericks in the loss column and tied with the No. 8 Clippers. The good news for the Wolves is they own the tiebreaker over the Mavericks and Clippers and still have a head-to-head with the Warriors.
Projected seed: 8Current first-round matchup: vs. ClippersTiebreaker vs. Phoenix: Suns lead 2-1 with one to playTiebreaker vs. Golden State: Warriors lead 2-1 with one to playTiebreaker vs. Dallas: Wolves clinched Tiebreaker vs. Clippers: Wolves clinchedTiebreaker vs. New Orleans: Tied 1-1 with one to play
Tiebreaker vs. Utah: Wolves currently own via division recordTiebreaker vs. Lakers: Wolves clinched
8. Los Angeles Clippers (34-33)
The Clippers are a half-game behind the No. 5 Mavericks and No. 6 Warriors, have the same record as the No. 7 Wolves, a game and a half up on the No. 9 Lakers, and two games ahead of No. 10 Pelicans, No. 11 Thunder and No. 12 Blazers. Our SportsLine model likes them to rise above the play-in line.
Projected seed: 6Current first-round matchup: at Wolves (play-in)Tiebreaker vs. Phoenix: Suns lead 2-1 with one to playTiebreaker vs. Golden State: Warriors lead 2-1 with one to playTiebreaker vs. Timberwolves: Wolves clinched Tiebreaker vs. Dallas: Mavericks currently own via conference recordTiebreaker vs. New Orleans: Pelicans lead 1-0 with two to play
Tiebreaker vs. Utah: Jazz clinchedTiebreaker vs. Lakers: Clippers clinched
9. Los Angeles Lakers (32-34)
The Lakers jumped into the No. 9 spot, technically, with their win over the Grizzlies on Tuesday. They are tied in the loss column with the No. 10 Pelicans, No. 11 Thunder and No. 12 Blazers, but at the moment see their name higher in the standings by virtue of having one more win. The Lakers are just one loss back of the No. 8 Clippers and No. 7 Timberwolves and two losses back of the No. 6 Warriors and No. 5 Mavericks. They are still very much in the race to perhaps even rise above the play-in line.
Projected seed: 10Current first-round matchup: at Pelicans (play-in)Tiebreaker vs. Clippers: Clippers clinchedTiebreaker vs. New Orleans: Lakers lead 2-1 with one to play
Tiebreaker vs. Utah: Jazz lead 2-0 with two to playTiebreaker vs. OKC: Tied 1-1 with one to playTiebreaker vs. Portland: Blazers currently own via conference win percentage
10. New Orleans Pelicans (31-34)
After Utah’s loss on Tuesday, the Pelicans have the same 31-34 record as the No. 11 Thunder and No. 12 Blazers. In tiebreaker scenarios that involve three or more teams, the nod, in order, goes to the team with the best head-to-head win percentage against all teams involved. At the moment, that leaves New Orleans on the right side of the play-in line.
Projected seed: 9Current first-round matchup: vs. Lakers (play-in)Tiebreaker vs. Golden State: Pelicans lead 2-1 with one to playTiebreaker vs. Timberwolves: Tied 1-1 with one to playTiebreaker vs. Dallas: Mavericks lead 2-1 with one to playTiebreaker vs. Utah: Jazz clinched
Tiebreaker vs. Lakers: Los Angeles leads 2-1 with one to playTiebreaker vs. OKC: Pelicans clinchedTiebreaker vs. Portland: Pelicans lead 2-1 with one to play
Outside looking in
11. Oklahoma City Thunder (31-34)
With their win over the Warriors on Tuesday, The Thunder have the same 31-34 record as the No. 10 Pelicans and No. 12 Blazers. See the Pelicans section above for a breakdown of how tiebreaker scenarios involving three or more teams sort out.
Projected seed: LotteryTiebreaker vs. New Orleans: Pelicans clinched
Tiebreaker vs. Utah: OKC leads 2-1 with one to playTiebreaker vs. Lakers: Tied 1-1 with one to playTiebreaker vs. Portland: OKC clinched
The Blazers have the same 31-34 record as the No. 10 Pelicans and No. 11 Thunder. See the Pelicans section above for a breakdown of how tiebreaker scenarios involving three or more teams sort out.
Projected seed: LotteryTiebreaker vs. Utah: Blazers lead 2-1 with one to play
Tiebreaker vs. Lakers: Blazers currently own via conference win percentageTiebreaker vs. New Orleans: Pelicans lead 2-1 with one to playTiebreaker vs. OKC: Thunder clinched
13. Utah Jazz (31-35)
After its loss to Dallas on Tuesday, Utah is one back in the loss column of the No. 9 Lakers, No. 10 Pelicans, No. 11 Thunder and No. 12 Blazers.
Projected seed: LotteryTiebreaker vs. New Orleans: Jazz Clinched
Tiebreaker vs. Lakers: Jazz lead 2-0 with two to playTiebreaker vs. OKC: Thunder lead 2-1 with one to playTiebreaker vs. Portland: Blazers lead 2-1 with one to play
