Pitt has round two with the Duke Blue Devils this season already. The Panthers have drawn both Duke and Syracuse twice by January 20th. It presents a unique challenge and in Pitt’s case, it’s not idea, either. Back on January 9th, Duke came into The Pete and dominated. The Duke offense could not miss and scored 48 points in the first half, while allowing just 23. The second half was slightly better for Pitt and the game ended up 75-53, but it never felt that close.
Duke looks like a legit title contender at 13-3 overall and 4-1 in the league. At the moment, the top of the ACC may evolve into a race between Duke and North Carolina. Forward Mark Mitchell will likely miss this matchup due to a knee sprain. That is a significant loss for Coach Jon Scheyer, who has elected to go with a smaller lineup for now with Tyrese Proctor. If Pitt wants to put up a better showing than last time, they will need to defend better. The Panthers surrendered 52% from the field and 44% from three. On the other side of the ball, they really struggled shooting it and were just 33% from the floor. It was basically as simple as that. Duke’s talent and skill overwhelmed Pitt and the tempo was set from the opening tip. Let’s take a closer look at what happened last time, as well as how this matchup could shake up with a slightly different look from Duke. Pitt trails the all time series against Duke 17-6, and they have really struggled at Cameron Indoor.
Jeremy Roach vs. Bub Carrington
Jeremy Roach has played his best as the season has progressed into conference play. The 6’1″ senior is averaging 14.6 points and 3.2 assists on the season, but his conference averages are 16.4 and 4.2. Roach also grabs 3.8 rebounds and records 2.2 steals per game in conference play. The experienced four-year player is shooting the ball really well: 52% from two, 86% from the line, and 45% from three. Against Pitt the first time, he had a rather quiet but effective game with 9 points and 4 assists. He really gave Carrington fits defensively and helped force him into a 4-16 shooting performance. Roach is at a size disadvantage here but has been an incredibly solid lead guard for four seasons now at the highest level. Bub ended up scoring 10 points but it was a rough night for his first big chance in the spotlight with NBA scouts in attendance. It was a challenge to get good looks and part of his night was 2-9 from deep. The shooting for Carrington has really fallen off and he has not found a way to get to the rim for easier shots. Despite having the ball in his hands a lot as a guard with a size advantage, he has attempted just 42 free throws all year. Bub has the ability to play this one to a draw, but he has just been too inefficient.
Advantage: Duke
Jared McCain vs. Ishmael Leggett
McCain is a 6’3″ freshman that has been remarkably steady for his age. On the season, he is contributing 11.7 points and 4.1 rebounds, with those numbers only dropping to 10.6 and 3.8 in league play. McCain leads Duke in three point field goals made with 34 on the season. From outside, he is really effective at 42%, which is good for second on the team. He has produced nine double figure games this season, including 12 at the Pete less than two weeks ago. Jared also has outputs of 21 vs. Baylor and 18 vs. Syracuse. McCain will likely develop his overall game and improve in time off the dribble, but he is a dangerous outside shooter that doesn’t make mistakes. Ishmael missed the Duke game with the shoulder injury, so this will be his first look against the Blue Devils this season. The shoulder appears to be in a better place now and it did not look like an issue against Syracuse. For the Panthers to get out of this offensive funk, they need Leggett to get back to where he was early in the season. Even though Jaland Lowe may start with Leggett working his way back, I think they need to get Leggett back in the starting lineup to help balance the depth and minutes in the backcourt.
Advantage: Duke
Tyrese Proctor vs. Zack Austin
With Mark Mitchell nursing a knee sprain, Scheyer has shifted to a four guard look. 6’5″ sophomore Tyrese Proctor has been operating in the starting lineup for now. He started as a freshman and showed a tremendous amount of potential. Proctor actually leads the team in assists at 4.2 per to go with 9.6 points and 2.5 rebounds. Tyrese has the look of a future NBA point guard at times, but the knock on him has been inconsistency. He has reached double figures six times on the season, but also has two scoreless games in the ACC. So while Duke loses size and rebounding ability for now, Proctor gives them another versatile guard that can make shots and create plenty of offense. Pitt struggled with Duke’s perimeter last time out and they will have a tough time matching four guards in this one. Austin scored 11 points and grabbed 2 rebounds in this matchup last time out. Austin has been much more active recently, but he is going to struggle when matched up against guards on the perimeter.
Advantage: Duke
Caleb Foster vs. Blake Hinson
Foster is another five-star freshman who has earned a starting spot from day one. Against Pitt, he only scored 8 points and grabbed two rebounds, but he produced seven assists out of nowhere to lead his team in that category. On the season, Foster is averaging 8.1 points but that number is down to 5.6 in the ACC. He has produced five double digit scoring efforts but the last one was on 12/30. In the four games since, he has produced just 2, 3, 8, and 3 points. Foster is capable of knocking down outside shots at 38%, but he only has 15 on the season. This is a spot where Pitt needs to take advantage. Blake Hinson has not been playing well at all, but his team desperately needs him to snap out of it. Without a true power forward to deal with on the other side, he should be more comfortable and be able to get plenty of open looks. The unfortunate thing is that getting open looks has not been the issue for him. Blake was okay last time out in this one with 9 points but the problem was that he only took right shots in the game. At the time, that number seemed absurd and a major issue. How long can this bad streak last? I find it hard to believe that he has just lost the ability to shoot the ball, but my stance is getting shakier each time out now.
Advantage: Even
Kyle Flilipowski vs. Guillermo Diaz Graham
The league’s best center put this game out of reach almost by himself last time. The 7’0″ sophomore was incredible and went off for 26 and 10 barely breaking a sweat. Kyle shot 11-12 from the floor in the game and made all four three point attempts. It was basically a clinic and Pitt had no answers. Pitt is not unique on that front though, as Filipowski has been dominant. He is averaging 18.2 points, 8.9 rebounds, and 3 assists per game this season. Those numbers have basically held exactly true through league play as well. Kyle shoots 55% from inside the arc, 68% from the line, and 41% from three with 21 makes from deep. In conference play, he is basically peak Blake Hinson at 56% from three. He has 14 double digit scoring games this season with six double doubles. He has made 8 of his last 9 three point attempts and had 30, 14, and 4 last time out against Georgia Tech. The good news is that he can’t really play any better than he did last time, only the fact that he could play more minutes. GDG had some solid contests last time and tried his best, but he learned a valuable lesson against Filipowski. There is constant pressure for anyone defending Filipowski, as he can hurt you from anywhere on the floor.
Advantage: Duke
Bench
Duke is essentially down a player with Mark Mitchell likely to miss another game. Without Proctor on the bench, it is a thinner group without much production. There is plenty of young size on the bench for Scheyer to use. 6’10″ senior Ryan Young is contributing 3.4 points and 3.6 rebounds. 6’9″ freshman Sean Stewart is adding 3 points and 2.9 rebounds. The front court depth is rounded out by another 6’9 freshman in TJ Power. He is averaging 2.4 points and almost a rebound per game. In the back court, 6’1 Jaylen Blakes will see limited minutes and he averages 2.8 points. Scheyer has plenty of pieces that can play a few minutes at a time, but the depth is not a strength right now. You could say the same about Pitt right now as well, but freshman Jaland Lowe is playing really well. Whether Lowe or Leggett starts, I think both guards can give Pitt the slight edge here with Proctor in the starting unit.
Advantage: Pitt
Jon Scheyer vs. Jeff Capel
Scheyer continues to thrive after benefitting not only from the job, but also the timing. Despite the retirement of a legend, the program never slipped at all and Scheyer has landed special recruiting classes. Scheyer has had very little trouble against Pitt despite the familiarity and respect that he has for Coach Capel. The two coaches are very close and worked together under Coach K for their alma mater. No matter how well Capel knows the Duke program though, there is only so much that a staff can do given the talent gap that there has been. Given how lopsided the last game was, it can be a challenge to get your team up for a rematch so soon. However, it should be easier for Scheyer given the fact that this one is at home.
Advantage: Duke
