Vaughn Dalzell gives out three College Basketball plays before NFL Sunday kicks off! It’s Georgetown vs UConn and Illinois vs Maryland.
Georgetown at UConn (-21): O/U 144.0
UConn has led by double-digits at the half sparely this year but those outings came against teams versus DePaul, Texas, and Gonzaga, for example, but this is a good spot for the Huskies.
After two straight road games at Butler and Xavier — two close wins (88-81, 80-75), UConn should have a much easier outing at home against Georgetown.
Georgetown has dropped four of its past five games with two slow starts in the two road games. At Marquette, Georgetown trailed 41-23, and at Butler, 40-27. In the other two road games on the year, Georgetown trailed 35-33 at Notre Dame and 38-32 at Rutgers.
Home opponents to Georgetown have averaged 38.5 points per first half, something UConn should hover around. In those four road games.
Georgetown is ranked 324th or worse in offensive effective field goal percentage (43.4%), offensive turnover percentage (24.4%), and offensive two-point percentage (41.4%).
Give me UConn to get out to a quick start and cover the first-half line of -12 at -115 odds. I’d play this out to -13.5.
Pick: UConn 1H -12 (1u)
Maryland at Illinois (-8.5): O/U 139.0
I believe the Fighting Illini are the third-best team in the Big Ten and with 11 wins by nine or more points, I will ride them at home against the Maryland Terps.
Through five Big Ten games, Maryland is shooting 24% from three, turning the ball over 19.7% of possessions, and owns a 40.2% effective field goal percentage — all last place.
The Terps have gone 1-3 in true road games and own one of the worst offenses in the Power 5. The numbers get worse if you factor in the two neutral court losses to Davidson and UAB.
Illinois has led by at least three points at the half in three of four Big Ten games and won by double-digits in two of them. Both Kenpom and Barttorvik have Illinois as -13 and -15 point favorites, but that’s with Terrance Shannon, who has missed four straight games and played well enough without him.
I think Illinois is the right side throughout this game, so I will ride the first half at -5 (-115) and the full game at -8.5 (-110). I’d go out to -6 for the halftime spread and -10 for the full-game spread.
Pick: Illinois 1H -5 (1u), Illinois -8.5 (1u)
Season Record: 16-10 (61.5%) +5.58u
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