DENVER — The Celtics have shifted to playing Jayson Tatum for the entirety of first quarters this season after letting Jaylen Brown set the tone in recent years. It has allowed Tatum to increase his scoring, gain and maintain early momentum in games, while Brown has made the most of his transition by captaining the second unit and focusing on playmaking.
It started on Opening Night when Tatum unloaded 4-of-6 three-point shooting over the Knicks, on his way to 37 points on 14-of-18 field goal attempts. And since — save for a few exceptions — Boston opened with Tatum to great effect.
Joe Mazzulla still believed in rolling with whomever between Brown and Tatum have it going early, giving Brown opportunities to return to his former role. Sometimes, they both play entire first quarters, like last month’s get right blowout win over the Pacers. That’s led to mixed workloads game-to-game for Tatum, who ranks sixth in usage percentage (30.8%) below MVP competitors Giannis Antetokounmpo (36%), Nikola Jokic (31.5%) and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (33.5%).
There’s a fine line between taking full advantage of Tatum’s creation ability in a heliocentric role and utilizing the talented roster around him. But Boston has been more successful when it has used Tatum more, improving to 10-3 in Denver when he exceeds 30% usage. Conversely, the Celtics fell to 6-5 at Oklahoma City when he falls below that threshold, according to StatMuse. Some of that is self-fulfilling, with stats based on scoring like free throws, field goals and assists increasing a player’s rate. Of course, more of those lead to wins and less result in losses.
“Do you know what usage rate is? Do you know how to calculate it?,” Mazzulla asked before the Nuggets game. “(It’s) divided by possessions. So you can still be involved if you make a potential assist … so I think at the end of the day, the most important thing is making sure that all of our guys are in position to make plays for each other and there’s obviously plenty of time where Tatum has to be Tatum and he has to be aggressive — there’s no question about that. I think he’s one of the best players in the league at finding that balance of when it’s time to take over and when it’s time to give the game what it needs.”
That’s the formula that worked in 2024, and while the roster composition and roles remain similar to last year, it’s not the same season. Shooters around Tatum have suffered worse results this year, and Tatum is experiencing a new career high in scoring efficiency (55.7 eFG%) and passing prowess (24.7 AST%). The on/off numbers aren’t as stark as in past years (75th percentile) and reflect a more competent offense (+2.8 points per 100 possessions better) with Tatum on the floor compared to off. Brown continued helping Boston maintain its dominance (+10.9 net rating, Brown on, Tatum off) with the second unit, though Tatum takes them to new heights in his limited minutes (+13 net rating).
These are all narrow ways of looking at the greater team dynamic, including the impact of players going in and out of the lineup. The Celtics suffered in Oklahoma City, where only Tatum, Kristaps Porzingis, Al Horford and Luke Kornet scored in the second half, from Tatum not taking over the offense. Then, he launched 23 shots at Denver to power a strong start and late 15-0 run that left him +23 with 29 points despite struggling 1-of-9 from three.
“It’s just about reading the game,” Tatum said that morning. “It’s not constructed for me to just dominate the ball or the game night-in and night-out. We just got too many talented players and that’s not the way we play. It’s definitely certain times and periods where you have to attack, be more aggressive and look for yourself, but I just felt like a lot of times I made the right pass (against the Thunder) and we just didn’t hit shots at a normal of a rate as we do. It’s just a make or miss league on some nights.”
Told Tatum about the numbers that show #Celtics have fared better when his usage goes up: “It’s not constructed for me to dominate the ball or the game night in and night out … that’s not the way we play.”
He did say there are exceptions to that: pic.twitter.com/oJnIyH4tfG
— Bobby Manning (@RealBobManning) January 7, 2025
This is not to say that Tatum should revert to the one-on-one tendencies that tortured Celtics fans in 2021 and led to him breaking a playoff turnover record in 2022. It’s a matter of whether Tatum’s scoring advancement since then would allow for a more efficient Boston offense by utilizing him more often. He leads the NBA among players with at least 3.0 possessions per game with 1.20 points per possession in isolation. Spotting up, he ranks in the 61st percentile and is in the 81st percentile of pick-and-roll creators. He produces as many points per possession posting up as Domantas Sabonis. Tatum’s a 93rd percentile cutter and even carves out 1.12 PPP as a roller.
As Mazzulla mentioned, Tatum can create offense outside of those situations dictated by a possession ending in a shot, turnover or free throws directly from his involvement. That leads to the debate from June’s Finals over whether Tatum played well despite his scoring numbers plummeting. He drew crowds and moved the ball out of them, often his role in Boston’s offense that sometimes utilizes Tatum as a decoy to free the team’s other players.
“We’re obviously at our best when he’s super aggressive and we’re at our best when our guys are aggressive, so continue to work that balance and it’s a credit to him understanding that balance,” Mazzulla said. “I know that can be difficult for him, but at the same time, (usage is) probably a useless stat because it doesn’t count into his impact. He had 15 potential assists last game. If those shots go in, he has a different stat line from that standpoint. So, I think he’s doing a great job, regardless of what coverage that he’s in, of making the right play, whether it’s for himself or for other people. When he’s aggressive, that’s when we’re at our best.”
This conversation always returns to Brown, who’s down from 55.7% to 51.7% shooting two-pointers, 35.4% to 32.5% on threes and turning the ball over at a slightly higher percentage over last year while taking more shots each night. His aggression, pace and ability to turn defense into offense remain crucial to the team. Like in past years though, he and Tatum’s offensive runs can trade off in waves. When one emerges early, like Brown did at the Thunder, it can leave the other out of the game or searching where to fit in.
Brown has expressed the shift away from logging the entire first as an adjustment, one he’s made the best of by increasing his assist rate by nearly three points. The formula for this group works when shots fall. When they don’t, there’s a case, through usage rate (32% on Tuesday) or eye test, that Tatum can carry this team when the offense dries up more often.
“Yeah, I mean he still passed. I think he had 10-12 potential assists, but again, it’s that balance,” Mazzulla said after the game. “We want him to be great every night. We’re never gonna ask him or anyone of our guys to be less of themselves. It’s just having an understanding of giving the game what it needs at that particular time and put us in position to win, whatever that may be. So, he did a great job of that tonight throughout the game, defensively as well. I think he gave up two threes to Porter to start the game and after that he was very, very intentional defensively and just as much on the offensive end.”
