Celtics (2-1) at Cavaliers (1-2) Eastern Conference Semifinals Game #4 5/13/24

The Celtics look to grab a commanding 3-1 lead as they visit the Cleveland Cavaliers for Game 5 in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. The Celtics opened the Eastern Conference Semifinals with a 120-95 win over the Cleveland Cavaliers in Boston. The Celtics then came out flat in Game 2 and lost 118-94 as they struggled to score and forgot how to defend and rebound.

The Celtics bounced back in Game 3 to win 106-93 after leading by 9 at the half and starting the 3rd quarter with a 14-0 run. They withstood a couple runs by the Cavs to hold on for the win to put them up 2-1 and take back home court advantage in the series. Teams that lead a best of 7 series 2-1 go on to win the series 79.8% of the time. Teams that lead a series 3-1 go on to win the series 95.4% of the time.

The Celtics need to play with the same sense of urgency that they played with in Game 3 as they played tough defense and put out the effort to win the rebounding battle and did not lose their composure. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown both played very well and Jrue Holiday had his best game of the playoffs. The Celtics need to come into this game with the mindset that it is a must win game. They will then have a chance to close out the series at home on Wednesday and get some rest.

Dean Wade returned in Game 3 after being out since March 8 with a knee injury. He was on a minutes restriction for his first game back. He finished with 5 points, 3 rebounds and 3 assists in 17 minutes of play and was one of only 2 Cavs with a positive plus/minus. Isaac Okoro has not played well so far. Wade gives them length and range that they desperately need and I’m taking a guess that they will start him in this game and that he will play at least 20 minutes in this game.

The Celtics have been an enigma in the playoffs. After losing just 4 games at home all season, they have already lost 2 games at home in the playoffs. The Celtics are 15-15 in their last 30 home playoff games. They are 17-10 on the road over that same period of time. Historically, after starting 1-1 in a series, the Celtics have gone on to win those series 7 times out of 11. After going 1-1 on the road to start a series, the Cavaliers are 0-2 in series wins.

Kristaps Porzingis remains on the Celtics injury report. He is dealing with a calf injury that he suffered in Game 4 of Boston’s first-round series against the Heat. He has been at the Celtics’ practices, putting up shots. He is also walking normally without a limp, but the Celtics are going to be very cautious with him as he will be needed in later series if they advance.

Luke Kornet has also been added to the injury report for this game with right calf tightness. Kornet sustained a calf strain in late April but has played in each of the last six games. He is listed as probable but if he were to end up missing this game, Xavier Tillman would likely be the back up behind Al Horford at the five.

The Cavaliers have already ruled out 2 players and have 2 others listed as questionable. Ty Jerome is out as he recovers from ankle surgery. Craig Porter, Jr has missed 10 games with an ankle sprain and is out for this game. Donovan Mitchell is listed as questionable for this game after aggravating a calf injury in the fourth quarter. He left the game with 1:19 left and went straight to the locker room. His status is a game time decision.

Jarrett Allen played very well in Cleveland’s first 4 games against the Magic averaging 17.0 points, 13.8 rebounds, 1.3 steals and 1.0 blocks. He took a hit from Franz Wagner in Game 4 and sustained a rib injury that kept him out of the last 3 games of that series. He missed the first 3 games in this series, and is listed as questionable for this game. His status is also listed as a game time decision.

Probable Celtics Starters

Celtics Reserves
Oshae Brissett
Sam Hauser
Svi Mykhailiuk
Payton Pritchard
Jordan Walsh
Jaden Springer
Xavier Tillman
Neemias Queta
Luke Kornet

2 Way Players
JD Davison
Drew Peterson

Injuries/Out
Kristaps Porzingis (calf) out
Luke Kornet (calf) probable

Head Coach
Joe Mazzulla

Probable Cavaliers Starters

Cavaliers Reserves
Damian Jones
Caris LeVert
Sam Merrill
Georges Niang
Marcus Morris, Sr
Tristan Thompson
Isaac Okoro

Two Way Players
Emoni Bates
Isaiah Mobley
Craig Porter, Jr

Injuries/Out
Ty Jerome (ankle) out
Donovan Mitchell (calf) questionable
Craig Porter, Jr (ankle) out
Jarrett Allen (ribs) questionable

Head Coach
JB Bickerstaff

Key Matchups

Derrick White vs Donovan Mitchell
Donovan Mitchell remains the key matchup for the Celtics in this series. Mitchell is averaging 29.6 points, 5.4 rebounds, 4.7 assists and 1.3 steals per game in the playoffs. He is shooting 47.6% from the field and 36.8% from beyond the arc. In Game 1, he finished with 33 points, 6 rebounds, 5 assists, and 1 steal while shooting 48% from the field and 35.4% from beyond the arc. In Game 2, he finished with 29 points, 7 rebounds and 8 assists. He shot 52.6% from the field and 71.4% from beyond the arc. He had another big game in Game 3, finishing with 33 points, 6 rebounds, 3 assists and 2 steals while shooting 54.5% from the field and 58.3% from beyond the arc. The Celtics must do a better job of defending him, especially on the perimeter. This would be a good time for another big Derrick White game on both ends of the court.

Al Horford vs Evan Mobley
Of course, if Jarrett Allen can play, he would be the matchup here. Mobley is averaging 14.0 points, 9.5 rebounds, 2.1 assists and 2.4 blocks in the playoffs. He is shooting 53.2% from the field and 28.6% from beyond the arc. In Game 1, he finished with 17 points, 13 rebounds, 3 assists and 1 block, while shooting 66.7% from the field and he didn’t take a 3. In Game 2, he finished with 21 points, 10 rebounds, 5 assists, 1 steal and 2 blocks. He shot 60% from the field and 50% from beyond the arc. In Game 3, he finished with 17 points, 8 rebounds, 1 assist and 1 steal while shooting 63.6% from the field and going 0-1 from beyond the arc. The Celtics need to try to keep him out of the paint and off the boards.

Honorable Mention
Jrue Holiday vs Darius Garland
Garland is averaging 14.7 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 5.3 assists per game in the playoffs. He is shooting 44.9% from the field and 38.9% from beyond the arc. In Game 2, he finished with 14 points, 7 rebounds, 4 assists and 1 steal while shooting 52.6% from the field and 80% from beyond the arc. In Game 3 he finished with 15 points, 3 rebounds, 6 assists and 1 block. He shot 40% from the field and 16.7% from beyond the arc. Holiday had a big game on both ends in Game 3 and the Celtics need him to do the same in this game.

Keys to the Game
Defense – Defense is always a key to winning games and especially in the playoffs when defense becomes even more important. The Celtics have a defensive rating of 104.8, which is 3rd in the playoffs. Cavaliers have a 108.6 defensive rating, which is 5th in the playoffs. The Celtics owe their Game 1 win to playing tough defense and they can blame their Game 2 loss to a lack of defense on their part. The Celtics once again locked down the Cavs on defense in Game 3 and once again, got the win. The Celtics must play lock down defense from start to finish with no let up if they hope to win this game.

Rebound – As the rebounding battle has gone, so have the games. Next to defense, rebounding is the next biggest key to winning. Much of rebounding is effort and desire and so when they put out that extra effort to win the rebound battle, it usually carries through to the rest of their game. The same is true when they slack off on effort and allow themselves to be out-rebounded. In the first round, the Celtics won every game they out-rebounded the Heat and lost the only game the Heat had more rebounds than them. The Celtics out-rebounded the Cavs in the first game 55-38 but once again, in Game 2, they were out-rebounded by the Cavs 44-31 and they lost the game. In Game 3 they once again out-rebounded the Cavs 44-35 and they won. The Celtics must work harder to grab rebounds than the Cavaliers in this game if they want to win.

Three Point Shooting – The Celtics led the league in 3’s taken in the regular season, taking 42.5 per game. The Celtics were 1st with 14 made 3’s per game while the Cavs were last with just 8.6 made 3’s per game in Round 1. The Celtics are 60-7 this season when making the same number or more 3’s than their opponents. They are just 10-13 when they make fewer 3’s than their opponents. In Game 1, the Celtics made 18 threes while the Cavs made just 11. In Game 2, the Celtics made just 8 3’s while the Cavs made 13. In Game 3, the Celtics made 13 threes to 12 for the Cavs. The Celtics need to focus on making their 3 pointers and at the same time, defend the perimeter well to limit the 3 point shooting of the Cavs.

Effort and Focus for 48 Minutes – The Celtics have to play every minute with extra effort. The Cavs play hard and so the Celtics need to match that effort and play even harder. The team that plays harder and is more aggressive is usually the team that comes out on top and that also gets the better whistle. The Celtics also have to stay focused. They have to focus on taking good shots and making them and on playing as a team and making the right play every time. They also have to keep that effort and focus up for 48 minutes with no let up and no collapse. The Celtics effort and focus were missing in Game 2 but returned in Game 3 and they need to come into this game focused and ready to play harder than the Cavaliers.

Bench Play – The Celtics need to get help from their reserves. In Game 1, the Celtics reserves were a difference maker for them while the Cavs bench didn’t contribute all that much. The Celtics bench loses a lot with Al Horford moving into the starting lineup. The Celtics bench outscored the Cavs bench 24-15 in Game 1. However, in Game 2, the Cavs bench out scored the Celtics bench 30-25, with Caris LeVert scoring 21. In Game 3, the Cavs bench outscored the Celtics bench 20-13, although Payton Pritchard hit one of the biggest shots of the game. They will need to get good production off the bench in this game.

X-Factors
On the Road – The Celtics are playing on the road once again and will need to stay focused in spite of the distractions of travel and playing in front of a hostile crowd. Cavs fans really do not like the Celtics and will likely be loud and antagonistic. The Celtics are 3-0 so far on the road in the playoffs, winning the 2 games in Miami after their loss in Game 2 in Boston and Game 3 in Cleveland after the Game 2 loss at home. They need the same mindset and focus that they brought into Game 3 in this game as well.

Officiating – Officiating is always an x-factor. Every crew calls the game a little differently with some calling it tight and others letting them play. They seem to be letting them play more in these playoffs so far, but that could change with any given crew and any given game. The Celtics have to adjust to how the game is being called and focus on the game and not on the officials.

Official Report
Crew Chief – Marc Davis – Davis has a home win/loss record of 40-31 this season. He calls 53% of fouls on the road team and 47% on the home team. Boston is 7-3 in their last 10 games with Davis as the crew chief, including the May 1 win over Miami in the first round. Cleveland is 4-6 in their last 10 with Davis. Davis was voted the third worst referee in the league in a poll of the players, behind Scott Foster and Lauren Holtkamp. Comments from players say he is arrogant and will sometime instigate things. He wasn’t bad in Game 5 against the Heat.

Referee – Courtney Kirkland – Kirkland has a home win/loss record of 30-31 this season. In the playoffs, he calls 46% of fouls on the road team and 54% on the home team. The Celtics are 7-3 in their last 10 games with Kirkland on the crew, including Game 4 at Miami in Round 1. Cleveland is 4-6 in their last 10 with Kirkland. 2 years ago during the ECF between Boston and Miami, Kirkland was the replay official in Secaucus who said Max Strus was out of bounds on a key 3 in Game 7. He was not bad in Game 4 at Miami.

Umpire – Tyler Ford – Ford has a home win/loss record of 38-32 this season. He calls 49% of fouls on the road team and 52% on the home team in the playoffs. The Celtics are 6-4 in their last 10 games with Ford on the crew. This is the first playoff game with him as a ref. The Cavs are 7-3 in their last 10 games with Ford including a 104-103 win vs Orlando in the first round.

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