The Milwaukee Bucks and Miami Heat get together on Saturday for the second time in three days. Miami won the first battle by a 108-102 margin on Thursday evening, with the rematch taking place in a matinee time slot in front of a national audience. Miami is 23-20 overall and 13-9 at home, with Milwaukee entering at 27-15 overall and 11-10 on the road. Giannis Antetokounmpo (knee) is questionable for the Bucks, with Khris Middleton (knee) ruled out. Kyle Lowry (knee) and Duncan Robinson (finger) are out for the Heat, with Tyler Herro (Achilles) listed as questionable.
Tip-off is at 1 p.m. ET in Miami. The Heat are listed as 4-point home favorites, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 213.5 in the latest Bucks vs. Heat odds. Before you make any Heat vs. Bucks picks and NBA predictions, be sure to check out the NBA predictions and betting advice from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four-plus seasons. The model enters Week 13 of the 2022-23 NBA season on a stunning 43-19 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning more than $2,100. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Bucks vs. Heat and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Heat vs. Bucks:
Bucks vs. Heat spread: Heat -4Bucks vs. Heat over/under: 213.5 pointsBucks vs. Heat money line: Milwaukee +152, Miami -180Milwaukee: The Bucks are 8-10-3 against the spread in road gamesMiami: The Heat are 6-14-2 against the spread in home games
Bucks vs. Heat picks: See picks at SportsLine
Featured Game | Miami Heat vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Why the Bucks can cover
The Bucks have a favorable defensive matchup against the Heat. Milwaukee is excellent in its own right, and Miami ranks No. 25 in the league in offensive efficiency, scoring only 110.8 points per 100 possessions. The Heat are in the bottom five of the NBA in field goal percentage (45.1%), and Miami is No. 25 in free throw creation, generating 22.2 attempts per game. Milwaukee is No. 3 in the NBA in defensive rating, yielding fewer than 1.1 points per possession, and the Bucks are in the top five in field goal percentage allowed (45.1%) and 3-point percentage allowed (34.1%).
Milwaukee also excels in free throw prevention, giving up only 21.0 attempts per game, and the Bucks are No. 2 in the league in defensive rebound rate. With Milwaukee also ranking as a top-10 team in offensive rebounding and second-chance points, the Bucks have a complete arsenal.
Why the Heat can cover
Miami’s ball security provides a strong baseline. The Heat are No. 6 in the NBA in turnovers, committing only 13.5 giveaways per game, and Milwaukee is dead-last in the league in turnover creation on defense with only 12.2 takeaways per game. On the defensive end, Miami is excellent, with the Heat ranking in the top quartile of the league and allowing only 111.1 points per 100 possessions.
Miami leads the NBA in points allowed in the paint (44.6 per game), and the Heat are in the top three in free throw prevention (20.9 attempts per game), turnovers created (16.5 per game), and steals (8.4 per game). The Heat are in the top 10 of the NBA in defensive rebound rate (72.7%) and second-chance points allowed (12.9 per game), with a top-three mark in fast break prevention. Milwaukee is in the bottom five of the league in field goal percentage and free throw percentage on offense.
How to make Bucks vs. Heat picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the total, with eight players projected to score at least 12 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in over 50% of simulations. You can only see the model’s picks at SportsLine.
So who wins Heat vs. Bucks? And which side of the spread hits in over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Bucks vs. Heat spread you need to jump on Saturday, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.
