The Celtics host the Milwaukee Bucks for the third of 4 games between these two teams this season. The Celtics won the first meeting 119-116 on November 22 in Boston. They lost the second game 135-102 on January 11 in Milwaukee. They will meet once more in Milwaukee on April 9. The Celtics won the series 2-1 last season. They won on Christmas Day in Boston and 1 game in Milwaukee and they lost one game in Milwaukee.
The Celtics are first in the East, 10 games ahead of 2nd place Milwaukee, 11 games ahead of 3rd place Cleveland, 13 games ahead of 4th place New York, 13.5 games ahead of 5th place Orlando and 16 games ahead of 6th place Philadelphia. They are 31-3 at home and 8-2 in their last 10 games. They are 35-7 against Eastern Conference teams and have won their last 6 games.
The Bucks are 2nd in the East, 10 games behind first place Boston, 1 game ahead of 3rd place Cleveland, 3 games ahead of 4th place New York, 3.5 games ahead of 5th place Orlando and 6 games ahead of 6th place Philadelphia. They are 17-17 on the road and 7-3 in their last 10 games. They are 30-13 against Eastern Conference teams and have won their last 2 games.
After a 3-2 road trip, the Celtics played one game at home against the Suns and then went on the road for a game in Washington before returning home to face Detroit and Milwaukee. They will head out on a 6 game road trip through Detroit, Chicago, 2 games in Atlanta, New Orleans and Charlotte. They will return home for 3 games against Oklahoma City, Sacramento, and Portland. Then it’s one game in Milwaukee before finishing the season at home against New York, Charlotte and Washington.
Milwaukee just finished a 2-0 home stand against Philadelphia and Phoenix. After this game on the road, they return home for 3 games against Brooklyn, Oklahoma City and the Los Angeles Lakers. They then play 3 on the road against New Orleans, Atlanta, and Washington followed by 5 more games at home against Memphis, Toronto, New York, Boston and Orlando. They finish the season with games on the road against Oklahoma City and Orlando.
I’m expecting the Celtics to be at full strength if at all possible for this game. However, Jaylen Brown is on the injury report as questionable with a right ankle sprain. Jrue Holiday is also listed as questionable with a right shoulder contusion. Sam Hauser is also questionable due to a left ankle sprain. I would guess that Payton Pritchard would start once again if Holiday can’t play. It’s possible that Oshae Brissett would start in place of Brown unless Hauser was able to play.
Giannis Antetokounmpo missed Sunday’s win over Phoenix due to left hamstring tendinopathy. He reportedly practiced on both Monday and Tuesday but is listed as out for this game. I would expect Bobby Portis, Jr to start in his place if he is unable to play. Chris Livingson (ankle) is questionable and Marjon Beauchamp (back) is available.
Probable Celtics Starters
Celtics Reserves
Oshae Brissett
Sam Hauser
Luke Kornet
Svi Mykhailiuk
Payton Pritchard
Jordan Walsh
Xavier Tillman
Jaden Springer
2 Way Players
JD Davison
Drew Peterson
Neemias Queta
Injuries/Out
Jaylen Brown (ankle) questionable
Sam Hauser (ankle) questionable
Jrue Holiday (shoulder) questionable
Head Coach
Joe Mazzulla
Probable Bucks Starters
Bucks Reserves
Thanasis Antetokounmpo
Pat Connaughton
Jae Crowder
Danilo Gallinari
AJ Green
Andre Jackson, Jr
Two Way Players
Jaylin Galloway
TyTy Washington, Jr
Ryan Rollins
Injuries/Out
MarJon Beauchamp (back) available
Chris Livingston (ankle) questionable
Giannis Antetokounmpo (hamstring) out
Head Coach
Doc Rivers
Key Matchups
Jayson Tatum vs Bobby Portis, Jr
With Giannis out, I am guessing that Bobby Portis may get the start in his place. He is averaging 13.4 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 1.2 assists per game. He is shooting 50.4% from the field and 39.3% from beyond the arc. Against Boston this season, he averaged 16 points and 9.5 rebounds. He shot 54.2% from the field and 83.3% from beyond the arc. In his last game against the Suns without Giannis, he finished with 31 points, 10 rebounds, 2 assists and 3 steals. He shot 65% from the field and was 5-5 on three pointers. Of course, Jae Crowder may start but the key matchup would still be Portis.
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Jrue Holiday
Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images
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Damian Lillard
Photo by Jeff Haynes/NBAE via Getty Images
Jrue Holiday vs Damian Lillard
Lillard is averaging 24.4 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 7.0 assists per game. He is shooting 42.5% from the field and 35.4% from beyond the arc. Against the Celtics this season, Lillard averaged 24 points, 4.5 rebounds, 4.5 assists, and 1 steal. He shot 47.2% from the field and 33.3% from beyond the arc. The Celtics need to play Lillard tightly on defense to limit his production since he is the biggest threat other than Antetokounmpo. Jrue should have added incentive to beat his former team and the point guard who replaced him.
Honorable Mention
Jaylen Brown vs Khris Middleton
Middleton is averaging 15 points, 4.3 rebounds and 5.1 assists per game. He is shooting 48.8% from the field and 38.1% from beyond the arc. Against Boston this season he averaged 8.5 points, 3.5 rebounds, 7 assists and 1 steal per game. He shot 26.1% from the field and 30% from beyond the arc. Middleton has missed 24 games this season with various injuries. He has moved from 2nd star to 3rd star with the addition of Lillard this season. However, he is still capable of having a big game and loves to beat the Celtics.
Keys to the Game
Defense – Defense is always the biggest key to winning. Defense really does win championships. The Celtics are 2nd with a defensive rating of 110.2. The Bucks have moved up from 22nd to 16th with a defensive rating of 115.4 since Doc Rivers replaced Adrian Griffin as coach. In their January loss to the Bucks, the Celtics allowed the Bucks to shoot 56.5% from the field and 42.9% from beyond the arc. They simply must do a better job on defense in this game. The Celtics must work harder than the Bucks on defense and keep their focus on the defensive end so as not to allow any easy baskets for the Bucks.
Rebound – Next to defense, rebounding is always a big key to winning. The key to rebounding is effort and focus. When the Celtics increase their rebounding effort, it usually improves their play in other areas as well. The Bucks are 13th with 43.9 rebounds per game while the Celtics are 1st with 46.9 rebounds per game. In their loss to the Bucks in January, the Celtics were out-rebounded 54-31. The Celtics have to fight harder in this game to beat the Bucks to rebounds.
Be Aggressive – The Celtics have to be the more aggressive team in order to have a chance to beat the Bucks. They have to be more aggressive in going for loose balls and in crashing the boards. They have to be more aggressive on defense and they have to be aggressive in going to the basket and not settling for 3’s if they aren’t falling. Often the more aggressive team will get more calls. They can’t allow the Bucks to play harder than them.
Maximum Effort for 48 Minutes – The Celtics are facing their closest rival in the Eastern Conference. They will likely meet them in the playoffs at some point. The Celtics effort in their loss in Milwaukee left much to be desired and they can’t make that mistake again in this one. They have to come out strong to start the game and they have to play with maximum effort throughout the game right up until the final buzzer.
X-Factors
Home Game – The Celtics are home for the second straight game. They have the home crowd behind them to give them extra motivation. The Bucks are on the road, where they are 17-17 this season, and where they are faced with the distractions of travel, hotel stays and a hostile crowd. The Celtics have had one day off while the Bucks have had 2 days off. Hopefully the Celtics catch the Bucks with a little rust. The Celtics need to take advantage of playing at home and defend their home court.
Officiating – The officiating can always be an x-factor. Some referees call the game tight and others let them play. Some favor the home team and others call it evenly. Some refs just seem to have an agenda that doesn’t fit the play on the court. And sometimes the refs are simply atrocious. Giannis seems to always get more than his share of calls as he plows through players on his way to the hoop, leaving bodies in his wake. The Celtics have to play through however the refs call the game, whether it is tight or they let them play or they make terrible calls. The Celtics can’t allow bad calls or no calls to take away their focus on the game.
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