We are down to the final week of the NBA season. After clearing the schedule for the men’s NCAA national championship game, the league returns with a 12-game slate. The action starts at 6 p.m. ET as the Philadelphia 76ers make a final run at one of the top seeds in the East against the sliding Pacers. The night wraps up at 10:30 p.m. ET, when the Lakers face the Suns in hopes of holding off elimination for one more night. Despite a few teams inevitably lacking motivation, the full schedule provides us plenty of options to pick our spots. On Tuesday night, I’m targeting an underdog fighting to maintain its spot in the play-in tournament and a total where I am not expecting much defense.
All lines from BetMGM.
San Antonio comes into this game with plenty of motivation. A win against Denver puts them three wins ahead of the Lakers for the final spot in the play-in tournament. Even with Dejounte Murray sidelined, the Spurs have stayed hot, thanks to the play of small forward Keldon Johnson. Johnson has averaged over 20 points per game and is shooting 41% from 3-point range over the last 10 games.
The Spurs are 6-1 S/U and ATS in their last seven, with their only blemish being a one-point loss to the Memphis Grizzlies. They have the NBA’s third-best net rating during that span, fueled by improved play on the defensive end. They will need a strong effort to stay competitive against the Nuggets, but the market has over-valued Denver at home all season. The Nuggets are the third-worst team to the number on their home court (14-24 ATS), where they have only covered one of their last five games.
Denver’s defense, which has allowed 120 points per 100 possessions over a 10-game span, doesn’t warrant laying this big of a number against a team playing as well as the Spurs. San Antonio has covered four times in a row when catching four points or more and is in a prime spot to continue the streak. I will take advantage of the inflated number and grab the points with the motivated underdog in this one.
Story continues
The 76ers’ Joel Embiid is in pursuit of the NBA league MVP. (AP Photo/Chris Szagola)
Philadelphia 76ers at Indiana Pacers (Over 233.5)
The number continues to rise for good reasons after opening at 231.5. The Philadelphia 76ers’ offense runs through Joel Embiid. After publicly expressing his frustration regarding the MVP voting, he has to take full advantage of his opportunities in these final four games. And tonight is a great chance to put up another eye-popping stat line. The Sixers center is coming off a 44-point performance against Cleveland and now gets to feast on a Pacers’ defense that has checked out for the season. Indiana has lost seven straight games without providing any reason to believe that they will offer resistance to Philly’s offensive firepower. The Pacers’ have been the league’s worst defense for some time now, ranking dead last in defensive rating over the last 15 games. They have allowed 125 points or more in five of six games.
Philadelphia should be able to win this game by a wide margin, which will make it easier for Indiana to contribute their share of scoring to the total. Unfortunately for Pacers fans, that has been the story for most of the season. Indiana is the fifth-most profitable team to the over, including a recent 4-1 run. The Sixers showed no mercy in racking up 144 points in a 30-point win over Charlotte this past weekend, so it’s a good bet that we will continue to see an “all gas and no brakes” mentality Tuesday night. Grab the over and bank on both teams putting all their effort into one end of the floor.
Stats provided by evanalytics.com, teamrankings.com, and nba.com.
