With the 2021-22 regular season complete, the Rockets have more clarity on the two first-round draft picks beloning to Houston in 2022 — both their own and one from Brooklyn, as part of the James Harden trade.
By losing Sunday to Atlanta, the Rockets (20-62) secured the league’s worst record and the No. 1 odds slot entering the 2022 NBA draft lottery, which takes place on May 17. While the three worst teams all have identical odds to “win” a top-four pick in the lottery, the advantage to having the worst mark is that it provides a pick floor at No. 5 overall.
Heading into the lottery, the Rockets will have a 14.0% chance of picking No. 1 overall; 13.4% at No. 2; 12.7% at No. 3; 12.0% at No. 4; and 47.9% at No. 5. Had Houston finshed with the second- or third-worst record, they could have potentially fallen as low as No. 6 or No. 7.
The pick outlook for Brooklyn (44-38), which won its final four games of the regular season to earn the No. 7 spot in the Eastern Conference play-in tournament for the playoffs, is a bit murkier.
With the No. 7 spot, Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving’s Nets will host No. 8 Cleveland in the first game of this week’s tournament. Should they win, the Nets would clinch a playoff spot. If they lose, they would then host the winner of No. 9 Atlanta and No. 10 Charlotte.
Brooklyn would have to lose consecutive home games in order to miss the playoffs. While unlikely, it’s certainly not impossible. If the Nets somehow miss the playoffs, they would be at No. 13 or No. 14 in the pre-lottery order. They would be No. 13 if Minnesota, which has better record than Brooklyn, loses in the West’s play-in tournament to become No. 14 (which goes to the non-playoff team with the best record). If Minnesota (the West’s No. 7 team) advances, as expected, Brooklyn missing the playoffs would result in the Nets’ pick entering at the No. 14 slot.
In either case, a non-playoff selection from the Nets would have only a small (but not impossible!) chance of moving up into the lottery’s top four — either 3.4%, if No. 14, or 3.8%, if No. 13 (pick odds).
Story continues
In the more likely scenario where Brooklyn wins one of two games and makes the East playoffs, their non-lottery pick would be at No. 16, No. 17, or No. 18. Minnesota is again a key variable here.
If both Brooklyn and Cleveland advance out of the East play-in tournament and into the playoffs (the loser of the first game would host the 9/10 winner, where they would likely be favored), a coin flip would be held to determine which team between the Cavaliers and Nets is higher in the order, since both finished with identical 44-38 records.
Assuming Minnesota makes the West playoffs, as most expect (they would have to lose two home play-in games not to), a Brooklyn-Cleveland tie would be between picks No. 16 and No. 17. If the Timberwolves somehow fall short, the tie would be between No. 17 and No. 18.
If Cleveland misses the playoffs entirely by losing to Brooklyn and then losing to the Atlanta-Charlotte winner, the scenario for the Nets depends on Minnesota. If the Timberwolves make the playoffs, Brooklyn would pick at No. 17. If they miss, the Nets’ pick falls to No. 18.
While complicated, it’s a tighter range than we had a few days ago. A more clear picture will be available on Tuesday night, which is when the two most important play-in tournament games from a Houston perspective (Cavaliers at Nets, and Clippers at Timberwolves) will take place.
