So much of the 2025 NBA Draft discussion surrounds the Duke Blue Devils, as it tends to do. Cooper Flagg looks like a virtual lock to land at number one, turning eyes towards him whenever he steps on the court. We shouldn’t forget Duke’s other talented prospects, notably freshman wing Kon Knueppel.
Knueppel’s high-end passing
On a Duke team without high-end guard talent, Knueppel has taken on heavy pick and roll playmaking duties. They’ve thrust him into the fire early and Knueppel’s passing has been excellent to begin the year. His assist-to-turnover ratio is an absurd 2.9, underscoring his excellent decision-making chops.
As one of Duke’s primary passers, defenses often send pressure at Knueppel. His ability to maintain his handle and avoid turnovers against traps, hedges and blitzes provides quite a bit of optimism for his future as an on-ball passer. He’s turned the ball over on a paltry 9.8% of his possessions, constantly making quick decisions to beat ball pressure.
i still feel pretty solid about kon knueppel, he’s still a high feel live dribble playmaker with movement shooting and enough burst. can still be a really good offensive player
athletic indicators are def somewhat concerning but he’s still a great offensive prospect pic.twitter.com/w6A2QMA4mD
— ben pfeifer (@bjpf_) January 9, 2025
Knueppel’s pairing with Flagg and especially freshman big Khaman Maluach provides him luxuries most college wings don’t have. It’s rare for college handlers to share the court with roll threats as potent as Maluach, who dunks just about everything. Knueppel’s accuracy, timing and manipulation of pace on these lob passes are pristine.
According to Synergy, Knueppel spends 37.9% of his possessions as the pick-and-roll handler (including passes) at 1.067 points per possession, placing him in the 85th percentile among all college players. In his final AAU season, Knueppel’s pick and roll handler frequency was a lowly 17.4%.
Knueppel’s scoring upside
Live dribble scoring will act as a swing skill for Knueppel. Can he counterbalance his excellent passing with his own downhill scoring threat? Knueppel’s half-court rim frequency (28.6%) is fairly solid given his capable first step and comfort changing speeds. He’s a clearly limited vertical athlete, though, and it’s easy to imagine him struggling to finish against NBA-caliber athletes. His low 19.3% free-throw rate isn’t a positive indicator for athletic translation, either.
list of 6’6+ players drafted with seasons of a free throw rate below 20. notable this year for kon knueppel, koby brea, milan momcilovic, jacob kofie among others pic.twitter.com/3SPaPj56T6
— ben pfeifer (@bjpf_) January 9, 2025
Nearly all of the wings without high foul drawing who succeed in the NBA do so on the back of their shooting. Desmond Bane is closest to an NBA star and there are quite a few strong role players on the list.
At just 35.9%, Knueppel’s 3-point shooting projection might not look elite on the surface. Diving deeper into his shooting indicators reveals an elite shooting prospect. He’s an incredibly high-volume shooter (12.7 threes per 100 possessions) who shoots 93.1% from the line. His track record of elite shooting extends back to high school, where he was a special scorer each AAU season.
Knueppel’s off-ball shooting versatility bodes well for his shooting projection and his role flexibility at the NBA level. He’s capable firing from all types of platforms, backing up on flare screens and twisting both directions off of pins. This shooting versatility is historically an excellent indicator of shotmaking translation.
kon knueppel’s quietly having an elite shooting season — 12.7 3pa/100, 61.3 3par, 93.1% ft. difficult movement shooting versatility
he should be an extremely role versatile pro pic.twitter.com/PpDv47DN34
— ben pfeifer (@bjpf_) January 9, 2025
Knueppel’s long-term outlook
At his ceiling Knueppel’s playmaking feel and scoring craft could lend to an on-ball role at the NBA level. Even without top-end athleticism, his skill, touch and passing might help him near-star offensive impact. Without the ball, Knueppel will thrive as a movement shooter and secondary playmaker. Most NBA teams won’t have trouble fitting him into their offensive scheme.
Those same athletic limitations will limit Knueppel on defense. He doesn’t generate any turnovers (0.5% block rate, 1.4% steal rate) and can struggle on ball, especially against quicker guards. Knueppel will rely on his sound positioning and recognition to tread water on the defensive end.
Kon Knueppel may not boast as high a ceiling as many prospects in this class. Even without elite athletic tools, though, his other positive traits could lend to an unorthodox star path. For my money, he’s still playing like a late lottery pick as Duke enters conference play.
