Jrue Holiday has had a very accomplished career heading into his 16th season in the NBA and 2nd with the Celtics. Holiday has averaged 16.1 points, 6.4 assists, and 4.2 rebounds for his career. He is a two-time All-Star, six-time All-Defensive Team member, two-time Olympic gold medalist, and most importantly, a two-time NBA champion on two different teams.
With a resume like that and widely regarded as one of the best defensive guards in basketball, you would think he would have a lock down case to make it into the Naismith Hall of Fame, right? Well, according to Basketball Reference’s Hall of Fame probability calculations, the case for Holiday doesn’t seem likely.
On August 27th, ESPN posted a slideshow graphic on their Instagram page talking about certain players’ chances to make the Hall of Fame calculated by Basketball Reference’s probability calculations. Holiday has a 1.67% chance of making it as it stands today.
When calculating their probabilities, Basketball Reference uses a formula that is primarily based upon key variables such as height, NBA championships, NBA leaderboard points (appearing in top-10 of major statistical categories), NBA Peak Win Shares, and All-Star Game selections. This in turn spits out a number that ranks Jrue Holiday the 36th active player in the NBA when it comes to Hall of Fame probability behind names such as Isaiah Thomas, Domantas Sabonis, Deandre Jordan, and Bradley Beal and just ahead of Andre Drummond and Julius Randle.
All the players ahead of Holiday have more counting stats. Since Basketball Reference’s calculations weigh All-Star appearances and leaderboard points more — even though Holiday is a two-time champion — you will have more players without a championship ahead of him.
It is true Holiday hasn’t been able to rack up All-NBA teams throughout his career because of other all-time great point guards at his position like Steph Curry, Kyrie Irving, James Harden and Russell Westbrook but there were times over the course of his career he could have made it. In the 2022-23 season when he finished with 39 total points, he was 8th amongst guards in the NBA. He got a third place vote in the 2018-19 season after having the best year of his career.
Holiday might not have the same statistics and awards as other star players of the decade. However, he has been the missing piece to two championship winning teams over the course of his career. He was arguably the third star and an instrumental piece in winning a championship with both the Milwaukee Bucks and Boston Celtics with a possibility to get one or two more in his career. With that being said, let’s compare Holiday to other players that played a similar role to him on a championship team as well as making the Hall of Fame.
I think a good comparison for players who were third stars on championship teams is Manu Ginobili from the San Antonio Spurs dynasty of the 2000’s and 2010’s. Jrue Holiday has averaged more points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks in both the regular season and playoffs. Ginobili has Holiday beat when it comes to All-NBA teams (2) and fhampionships (4) for now, but Holiday has him beat in All-Defensive teams (6). Ginobili also had most of his production come from off of the bench during the Spurs dynasty years, while Holiday was always starting and contributing more to his team.
In conclusion, I think Holiday eventually makes the Hall. With the impact he has made on multiple championship teams, being one of the best perimeter defenders in NBA history, and still playing at a high level on a team that has a chance to rack up more rings, Jrue Holiday can only add to his legacy and further cement his case.
