It was a couple weeks before the trade deadline when Bill Simmons declared on his podcast (and I’m paraphrasing) that Payton Pritchard was too small to be an effective NBA player, that Celtics needed to upgrade his rotation spot. While it might have been a knee-jerk reaction, there was some truth to the simplicity of the statement.
It wasn’t only that the 6’2” Pritchard is small for an NBA player, but he played small. Jalen Brunson, TJ McConnell, and Terry Rozier are roughly the same height, but their longer wingspans and stronger frames mitigate the obstacles of playing against guys who are, let’s say, more vertically privileged. For a majority of the season, Pritchard was tentative about driving to the hoop and routinely looked overmatched against taller, longer, and more athletic players.
To his credit, he performed admirably in his “designated three-point shooter” role. From October through February, 68 percent of his shots came from beyond the arc, and he connected on a solid 37.9 percent. But looking at his shot charts from the last two games of the season, he’s a completely different player:
Pritchard followed his 31-point, 11-assist, 64 FG% game against the Hornets with 38 points, 12 assists, and 71 FG% versus the Wizards. And yes, it’s against the 60-loss Hornets and Wizards, but playing with mostly minimum-salary guys, Pritchard showcased his multi-level scoring, something we didn’t see earlier in the season.
The final two games were the exclamation point to a remarkable in-season improvement as a penetrator. In my mind, Pritchard’s turning point came during a March 3rd game against the Warriors. To refresh your memory, this was a Sunday matinee game at home. Golden State had won 11 of 13, seemingly overcoming their early-season Draymond Green-induced drama. But that afternoon was an annihilation, with the Celtics winning 140-88, leading by as many as 56, and Pritchard shined, scoring 19 points on 9/12 shooting.
Before I show you his highlights from that game, here are some examples of Pritchard as an ineffective penetrator, where his drives didn’t lead to scores:
Despite the opportunities to finish at the rim, too often, Pritchard opted to pass or dribble it out to the perimeter. He was getting into the paint but hesitant to attempt a shot over the bigger bodies. But in that March 3rd game against the Warriors, a switch flipped, and he started attacking the rim with a decisiveness that we hadn’t seen all season:
Maybe the Celtics having a massive lead allowed Pritchard to play more freely, without fear of making a mistake. Maybe with Golden State’s lack of size, he entered the game with an aggressive mindset. Whatever it was, Pritchard looked like a different guy. He had a (at the time) season-high 10 points in the paint, and this initiated a 22-game stretch where Pritchard morphed into a reliable multi-level scorer, graduating from his previous role as an undersized designated three-point shooter.
Before this game, he’d often get swatted into oblivion:
Instead of attacking the big man’s chest, he’s trying to finesse a shot before the defender can get to him, only to get emphatically rejected. He also struggled in transition:
He doesn’t use his body to shield the ball from the defender, resulting in a pair of return to senders. But after March 3rd, he started driving with greater purpose:
Something shifted in Pritchard’s mindset. In December, he averaged 6.4 drives per 36 minutes. That number jumped to 11.0 in March, then 17.6 in April, an astounding late-season improvement. But it’s less surprising considering his increased physicality on drives. Despite his diminutive stature, he’s gotten comfortable initiating contact to create space:
In eight April regular season games, he had 115 drives, which is more than he had in 29 combined November and December games. The physical mindset has extended to areas away from the rim. He’s lowering his shoulder to dislodge defenders and open up space for pull-up midrange attempts:
Before the March 3rd Warriors game, only nine percent of his shots were pull up 2’s, but that number ballooned to 20 percent in the twenty-two games since, and he’s connecting at an absurd 58 percent. Obviously, this isn’t a sustainable rate, but his assertiveness getting to the lane is giving him the freedom and confidence to expand his offensive arsenal beyond spot-up threes.
Seventy-one percent of his field goals are unassisted since the Warriors blowout, up from 41 percent before. Nonetheless, his field goal percentage has increased from 43.6% before March 3rd to 51.8% after. Bottom line: he’s taking tougher shots, but scoring more efficiently, and that’s because of his prowess as a downhill player.
I didn’t even mention how he’s nearly doubled his per game assist totals because I don’t want to inundate you with more video clips and stats. But on the most basic level, as defenses increasingly respect him as a driver, it creates opportunities to find open teammates. I also must acknowledge that he’s the only Celtic to have earned a spot in the highly exclusive Club 82.
When Payton Pritchard signed his four-year $30 million extension before the season, it seemed like he’s certainly outplay that salary. Across the first three quarters of the season, while he might have matched the value of the contract, it felt like his forward trajectory had stagnated. His lack of size and indecisive off-the-dribble game made you wonder whether he could survive a playoff series.
His progression as a penetrator has been a refreshing development in a regular season that got boring over the past few weeks because the Celtics were so far ahead in the standings. After last Friday’s game, Pritchard spoke about his increased comfort level with consistent playing time. Now he’s gearing up to be a key rotation player on Boston’s quest for Banner 18.
