Worry not, Boston fans – the Celtics are just following the trends

There’s no question about it – last year’s Boston Celtics was one of the best teams in NBA history. They ended with the #1 regular season record, winning 64 games. They finished a whole 7 games above the next best team overall, the Oklahoma City Thunder, and 14 whopping games above the #2 team in the East, the New York Knicks. They followed that up by going 16-3 in the playoffs, winning their 18^th championship in franchise history, and their first in 16 years.

That success set high expectations for this year’s Celtics, especially considering the roster is essentially the exact same. Unfortunately for them, the regular season is quite long. With the elevated competition around the league, Boston’s losses and missteps are getting a lot of extra attention. Some of the criticism is warranted, but we need to take a step back and look at the bigger picture.

I won’t argue that the Celtics have looked like their usual selves lately – they haven’t. They’re 14-10 since December 1^st, and many of those losses have come against weaker competition due to different combinations of bad defense, missing open shots, and poor execution.

A mid-season slump is nothing new for a team coming off of a championship, though. In the past 10 years, only two championship teams improved their record the following year – the 23-24 Nuggets and the 15-16 Warriors. Neither of them won the championship those years.

Only a handful of NBA teams have won a championship while having at least one of their players win the Olympic gold medal in the same year, but last year’s Celtics joined that rare-air. Jayson Tatum, Jrue Holiday, and Derrick White all participated on Team USA for the Olympics, winning on the global stage just a short-while after conquering the NBA.

For the most part, when teams have had a player win a championship and Olympic gold medal in the same year, they’ve had worse regular season records, but similar playoff success the following season.

Here’s a brief look at the history. The Chicago Bulls won the championship in the 91-92 season, with Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen participating in the Barcelona Olympics over the summer and bringing home the gold medal. The following season the Bulls won 10 less games, but they repeated as champions. Chicago also won it all in the 95-96 season. Again, Scottie Pippen joined Team USA in the Olympics over the summer, coming back with the gold. The next season, the Bulls won three less games, and again, they repeated as champions.

In the 11-12 season, LeBron James won his first ring with the Miami Heat. He then went to London to win the Olympic gold with Team USA. The 12-13 Miami Heat are the lone team on this list to raise their win percentage the following year, though something to note is that the NBA was on a lockout in 11-12, which led to them playing only 66 regular season games as opposed to the usual 82. Between the two seasons, Miami’s win-percentage jumped up from 69.7% to 80.5%. They also won another ring that season.

Photo by Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images

LeBron was back at it in Cleveland during the 15-16 season, but it was his teammate, Kyrie Irving, who went to the Olympics to win gold after the Cavaliers won the championship that season. In the following season, the Cavs lost 6 more regular season games, and went on to lose in the Finals after the Golden State Warriors brought in Kevin Durant.

Most recently, the trend continued with the Milwaukee Bucks. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the 20-21 season was shortened, and the 2020 Olympics were delayed to 2021. Milwaukee won the championship that season, and then sent Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton to Tokyo to bring home the gold. They won 5 more games the following season, though they lost 5 additional games too, bringing their win percentage down from 63.9% to 62.2%. As Celtics fans may remember, Giannis tried his best to bring Milwaukee back to the Finals, but was sent home after meeting Boston in the Eastern Conference Semis. That leaves the Bucks as the lone team to not go back to the Finals the year after.

So, Boston fans, take a breath. The Celtics were historic last year. It may feel like they’ve regressed since they’re on a lower win-pace than they were a season ago, but that’s perfectly natural. They played 101 basketball games as a team last season, and had an unusually short off-season due to the Olympics and early start to the pre-season this year. They may tack on a few more losses, but that doesn’t mean they’re any less capable of repeating last year’s success.