After their roughest stretch in two-years, the Boston Celtics have bounced back with some force. They’re currently on a 3-game win streak while having just faced two top-10 defenses on back-to-back nights, beating the Minnesota Timberwolves and Houston Rockets. Today, they have their work cut out for them again.
They’ll be facing off against a red-hot Oklahoma City Thunder team that’s on a franchise-record 14-game win-streak. What makes the Thunder’s streak even more impressive is that they’ve been doing it without their second-best player, Chet Holmgren, who has been sidelined with a hip fracture since early November. They’ve also been missing another key rotation guy, Alex Caruso, who will be missing his seventh straight game today. Jayson Tatum may be without his co-star for the third game in a row, though, with Jaylen Brown being listed as questionable.
OKC is the #1 team in the West at the moment, currently 7 games ahead of the rest of their conference. They also lead the Celtics by 3.5 games at the moment, and are widely considered to be the biggest threat to Boston’s goal of repeating this year. Their star player, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, has been putting up some sensational performances lately, and many see him as the leader of the MVP race. Today’s game could have a lot of big implications for a few different reasons.
Which will prevail, offense or defense?
There’s no doubt that today’s matchup is a heavyweight one. Oklahoma City has the league leading net rating at 12.1, while Boston isn’t far behind in third with a net rating of 11.0. The two teams are fairly evenly matched, both excelling on both ends of the floor. The only team within 3 of either of them is the Cleveland Cavaliers, who are right in the middle with a rating of 11.6.
In today’s bout, each team’s biggest strength is slightly inversed, though. The Thunder come in to today’s game with the best defensive rating in the league (103.6). The Celtics currently hold the 2nd best offensive rating in the league (121.3). On the reverse end, OKC is ranked 7th offensively (115.7) while Boston is ranked 7th defensively (110.3).
That leaves the question, will the Celtics be able to overpower the Thunder with their elite offense, or will OKC’s defense give them enough of an edge to beat out Boston?
Who controls the pace?
The Thunder are a team that can move at break-neck speeds at times. They’ve spent large portions of the season with one or less true centers active, which has pushed them to play a lot of small-ball. Similar to the Celtics, their offense contains a lot of drive-and-kicks that lead to open threes. Shai is also one of the league’s premier players when it comes to attacking the paint, leading all guards in points in the paint and 5th among all players league-wide. They have a lot of ways to put the ball through the hoop, and can drop an avalanche on teams when they get in a rhythm.
OKC is among the league leaders in pace and fastbreak points, currently 10th and 9th in the league respectively. They’re also in sole possession of the top spot in terms of both forcing and converting off of turnovers, forcing 18.9 turnovers per game while generating 23.4 points off of them. If Boston plays loosely with the ball, OKC will have their way with this game. Not only that, but the Celtics need to give extra attention on the glass, securing boards and getting back in transition quickly when they can’t.
Can Boston keep Shai off of the free throw line?
SGA is among league leaders when it comes to drawing fouls, free throw attempts, and free throw percentage. He’s 11th in fouls drawn (5.6), 6th in FTA (7.9), and 20th among qualifying players in FT% (88.5%). Given his tendency to drive to the bucket, Boston is going to have to find ways to keep him out of the paint and play him physically without fouling.
He’ll likely see a number of different matchups between Derrick White, Jrue Holiday, Jayson Tatum, and if he’s available, Jaylen Brown. The last time Boston saw SGA he had his way with our backcourt, scoring 25 points on 10/15 shooting against Derrick, Jrue, and Jaylen. He struggled a bit more when covered by Jayson, though, who held him to 3 points on 1-4 shooting. Shai is taller than your average guard, standing at 6’6”, so Jayson’s size and length was crucial in slowing him down, and likely will be again today.
