Will Lonnie Walker IV make the Celtics roster?

Lonnie Walker IV signed an Exhibit 10 contract with the Celtics to increase their offseason roster to 20 players, including three training camp invites.

That leaves one open spot weeks from the team’s head start before it travels to Abu Dhabi for a pair of exhibitions against the Nuggets, while Boston’s lone remaining standard roster spot unofficially remains unfilled. Walker could eventually fill that spot. For now, it’s no guarantee.

Walker signing with Boston came as some surprise as much as his availability was days before September following a strong shooting season with the Brooklyn Nets. An Exhibit 10 deal could also position Walker IV to begin the year with Maine, as there’s no clear path to him landing a roster spot ahead of any of the 14 players on standard contracts in front of him.

The Celtics have typically held their 15th roster spot open for flexibility’s sake and now have a significant luxury tax reason to do so. If Walker signed for the veteran’s minimum on day one — which carries a $2.1 million cap hit this year — that would add nearly $10 million to Boston’s tax bill. He’d need a clear path to a role on the roster for that to make sense.

“We kept 14 most of the year last year, then we added two at the end of the year,” Brad Stevens said in July. “We’ll see how the next few months play themselves out with regard to people’s availability. Obviously, Kristaps is going to have a long rehab process ahead of him. Then we have to determine what’s the best need for our team in that 15th spot?”

Walker IV shot 38.4% from three in 2024, including 39% splits in pull-up and catch-and-shoot situations, while hitting at a 44.9% rate from the corner. That level of shooting would project toward another opportunity emerging quickly for the 25-year-old. However, his efficiency didn’t prove as strong on a per possession basis, posting a poor 0.83 PPP running pick-and-roll, 0.91 in isolation, 1.05 while spotting up and 0.73 off screens. All of those figures hovered at or below the 50th percentile of all NBA players.

The Celtics might not need him to do any of those things, but will demand that he defends. His numbers on the other side of the ball beg for improvement, including allowing 1.21 PPP in isolation (8th percentile) and 1.15 PPP defending pick-and-roll creators (3rd percentile). Opponents, however, shot 41.9% when guarded by Walker, some encouraging signs alongside with his 6-10 wingspan and athleticism.

Walker IV played for Brooklyn on the veteran’s minimum after an uneven year with the Lakers highlighted by his vintage playoff performance in a Game 4 against Golden State that vaulted LA to the Western Conference Finals. Before that, he spent four years with the Spurs after they drafted him No. 18 overall in 2018.

Derrick White and Walker IV played more than three seasons together in San Antonio. Walker IV joins Summer League Celtics Ron Harper Jr. and Tristan Enaruna as training camp invites. CLNS Media/CelticsBlog reported that the Celtics will likely sign Jay Scrubb to their 21st and final offseason roster spot through an Exhibit 10 contract after he recovers from ACL surgery. Neither Scrubb nor Walker IV preclude the Celtics from going with another option once camp ends, including free agent Oshae Brissett.

The Celtics only have minor roster flexibility before the season begins. Jordan Walsh’s deal has roughly $2 million guaranteed remaining. All three two-way slots can be changed at any time, though Walker IV is no longer eligible for one. Jaden Springer’s one-year contract is worth $4.0 million.

Staying with Maine, if Walker IV is waived, would earn him approximately $75,000 for spending 60 days there. Boston’s development program has made strides with both players changing their games and hoping to bolster their defense. Walker IV could benefit from both if he’s willing to be patient. The Celtics would have no exclusive rights to retain him with the organization, other than that small bonus, if they send him to the G-League. Any other team could sign him to an NBA contract at any time.

For what it’s worth, minimum contracts are pro-rated, so the Celtics save in salary and luxury tax by waiting to sign a 15th man. They waited until Apr. 9 to transition Neemias Queta from a two-way to standard contract, only assuming a $81,253 cap hit. Two-way contracts do not carry a cap or tax hit.

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