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The Lakers appear to be conscious of their future for the first time since having James on the roster. This isn’t to say that they now outweigh the future more than the present – by all accounts, the Lakers are working on deals to improve the team involving their available remaining draft capital. But even if they can significantly improve the present, its window for contention is shrinking. It wouldn’t be unreasonable if they ultimately did decide to pivot towards the future.
Since 2019, the Lakers have traded five first-round picks, including three for Davis, one for Dennis Schroeder, and one for Westbrook. They also gave the Pelicans swapping rights for their 2023 first-round pick, eliminating any possibility of bottoming out for a top pick in this year’s draft. And since the Pelicans can convey the Lakers’ 2024 first-round pick as well, they also can’t bottom out for a high draft pick in next year’s draft as well. This should naturally disincentivize the Lakers from being anti-competitive over the next two seasons.
They also have no blue-chip prospects to look forward thanks to their recent trades and will continue to lack them while they have obligations to the Pelicans, possibly until 2025. By then, James and Davis could become unrestricted free agents, leaving a lot of uncertainty on the table going forward. Because of that, their unprotected first-round picks in 2027 and 2029 can be super valuable, and the Lakers understand this.
The idea of giving up two potentially valuable first-round picks with no core to look forward to past 2025 is a legitimate concern. This rings especially true considering they’ve already given up two valuable picks with the 4th overall in 2019, and the 8th overall in 2022 to the Pelicans. They could also give up another valuable first-round pick to the Pelicans via swap in the upcoming 2023 draft and potentially another high pick in 2024 or 2025. It’s understandable why the Lakers are showing so much restraint in trading future draft picks now.
It’s important not to disregard the future five years from now and out. The Lakers went through a long period of losing between 2014-2018 but part of their ability to build a contender after was accumulating high draft picks and drafting well. If the Lakers trade both their 2027 and 2029 first-round picks, they’ll already be at a disadvantage in their next rebuild as opposed to their previous one with just four first-round draft picks over the next seven drafts.
Of course, they are the Lakers so another star could eventually sign with them and they are positioning themselves for one. They are projected to generate $30 million in cap space in 2023, and it seems like a good bet that they will roll it over into future offseasons if they strike out. 2025 can be the next big free agency class with many talented players from the 2016 and 2017 draft classes able to hit the market then, as well as a potential salary cap spike. Still, the more assets they have, the more likely they’ll succeed in building the next great Lakers team around a potential new star.
