What’s the big idea?: how the Celtics fill the Kristaps Porzingis-sized void to start the season

On June 9^th in Game 2 of the NBA Finals, Boston Celtics big man Kristaps Porzingis suffered a torn retinaculum and dislocated posterior tibialis tendon, a rare injury which sidelined him for the next two games. This came in just his second game back from a calf strain, which he suffered in the first round of the playoffs against the Miami Heat. He missed considerable time during the playoffs, playing only seven of the Celtics’ 19 total games en route to their 18^th banner.

While limited, Porzingis’s impact was on full display, making key plays with his size, range, and interior defense. He averaged 12.3 points, 4.4 boards, 1.1 assists, and 1.6 blocks in just 23.6 minutes per game with his averages taking a dive in games in which he sustained his injuries, as well as Game 5 of the Finals where Porzingis was clearly still feeling the effects of his injury while closing out the Mavericks.

It was known that Kristaps would require surgery to repair his injury, though he was assured that playing through it wouldn’t bring much risk of further damage. The concern was his ability to manage the pain before he was cleared to return to the court. He got the go-ahead to play in Game 4 of the Finals, but didn’t take the court until Game 5, where he came off the bench.

After the conclusion of the NBA season, Porzingis was hoping to continue to hold out on surgery until the end of the summer so that he could compete in the Paris Olympics with his home country of Latvia. Ultimately, it was determined that in his impaired state, he would not be able to have as big of an impact as he’d hoped. Thus, he made the decision to sit out and opt for surgery sooner rather than later.

Despite his absence, Boston was able to find success, going 10-2 in their time without him. Al Horford moved off the bench to the starting role, which gave more opportunities to Luke Kornet and Xavier Tillman as the reserves.

With the 5-to-6-month recovery timeline, he will be out until the late November at the absolute earliest, but more realistically mid-to-late December. As head coach Joe Mazzulla stated, this upcoming season isn’t about defending the title. The Celtics want to be the aggressors, and they want to go out and get it done again on their own terms. That means they need the bench to step up and fill the void until Porzingis can return.

Kristaps is arguably the 3^rd best player on the Celtics, although some fans argue that Jrue Holiday or Derrick White deserve that nod after their playoff performances. Regardless, they call Porzingis the Unicorn for a reason. He’s a rare breed in the NBA, and his production is hard to replace. Few can shoot like he does at his height, and his ability to turn back shots in the paint is a key component of the Celtics defensive scheme.

So, who do the Celtics turn to? The obvious answer would be to follow the same scheme they did in the playoffs, starting Al Horford and bringing Kornet and Tillman off the bench. Perhaps it’s not that simple, though.

In the playoffs, every team tries to slim down their rotation as much as possible to get the most out of their top players. During the regular season, the stakes aren’t nearly as high. Joe Mazzulla will have the opportunity to try out different lineups and fits with the hopes of finding ones that will have lasting impacts beyond Porzingis’s inevitable return. We also have to be mindful that Al Horford will be turning 39 next year, and although he’s defied Father Time thus far, you never know when it’ll catch up. He’ll likely be resting during back-to-backs again, and the team can’t make him play 30+ minutes a game.

The Green Kornet

While Luke Kornet is a serviceable big off the bench, he’s likely nearing his ceiling in terms of production. The 29-year-old, 7-footer is entering his 8^th season, averaging 5.3 points, 4.1 boards, and 1.1 assists on 70% shooting. Despite his size, he’s not exactly a dominant interior presence on either end of the court. That said, he does have the ability to catch easy lobs when he’s deep in the post and on quick rim runs in the pick-and-roll — his field goal percentage as a testament to that.

In his early days with the Knicks and Bulls, Kornet managed to stretch the floor, shooting 34% from three on 3.7 attempts per game across his first three seasons in the league. However, the Celtics seem to have pushed him away from the perimeter. Last season, he only attempted one 3-pointer, which, to his credit, he sank.

Offense is definitely Luke’s stronger end of the court. He’s not terribly mobile, which is understandable at 7’1” and 250 pounds. He can easily be attacked defensively when he’s brought out to the perimeter. He struggles at closing the gap on shooters, often resorting to his patented “Kornet Contest” as his best form of resistance. He’s not much better at standing in front of drives, although he did average 1 block per game when he was able to establish himself in the paint last year.

Luke played 15.6 minutes per game this past season and is likely going to be the first big off the bench again. While his lack of spacing can hurt overall offensive production, he’s a solid candidate for bigger lineups that want to pound the paint or slow down the tempo of the game.

He signed a one-year minimum deal this offseason, which is somewhat atypical for Brad Stevens, who usually likes to add an option year for trade flexibility. Maybe I’m reading into it too much, but this seems like an indication that once Porzingis returns, Luke’s role could be more limited compared to last season. The team may be planning on easing in to a youth movement while maintaining some continuity from last year’s championship run.

X-Man

Xavier Tillman is both young, and a returning contributor who will likely see more reps this year. He exudes an “Al Horford-lite” energy, and has even stated that he is trying to learn as much as possible from Horford. Standing at 6’7”, 245 lbs., Tillman is entering his 5^th year in the league at just 25 years old. Like Horford, he plays with a certain calm, controlled intensity. He won’t be screaming in anyone’s face like KG, but when the time comes, you can tell he’s locked in.

On the defensive end of the ball, Tillman manages to hold his own. He even forced a number of stops against “the greatest backcourt of all time” in the Finals.

X didn’t have a lot of time to acclimate to the team last year due to his late arrival and a nagging knee injury, but he’s consistently expressed just how openly the team has welcomed him. Having a chance to go through training camp and the pre-season this year will undoubtedly help his chemistry with them. He’s at that awkward size where he can’t really be a wing, yet he’s on the small side relative to conventional big men. Despite that, he moves his feet well, and he’s also got underrated strength. If he manages to develop more of an offensive game, he could even fill in the role of a less-obnoxious Grant Williams (said with love for Grant.)

He’s a nice option if the Celtics want to run a smaller lineup, and could even play the 4 next to Horford if Mazzulla wants to run a double-big lineup. He’s sort of an inverse to Luke, in that he’d be more likely to see the floor when the team needs to focus on defense, or when they want to get up and down the court quickly. He’s a workhorse, but his long-term viability likely hinges on his ability to develop a serviceable 3-point shot. He’s the player I’d most like to see absorb Kristaps’ minutes early in the season so that we can get a real sense of his ability to impact the games come playoff time.

Neemi

If the Celtics want to go even younger, then look no further than Neemias Queta. Neemi is actually only about 6 months younger than Xavier, but he’s been in the league for just 3 seasons so far, spending most of that time in the G-League. The 7-foot center recently inked a 3-year deal with the Celtics. His first multiyear contract shows that Brad Stevens is looking to make a real investment in him. Though most of his minutes come in garbage time, he averaged 5.5 points, 4.4 boards, and 0.8 blocks in just under 12 minutes per game.

Like Tillman, Queta is an incredibly hard worker, and he’s extremely active on the glass when he takes the floor. He’s probably the most athletic of Boston’s big men, though he can be a bit uncoordinated and out of control at times. Before Neemi sees significant playing time, I’d imagine the team will want to see his game mature a bit more. Like an early Rob Williams, Queta lacks a bit of discipline on the defensive end. He could really benefit from picking the brains of Jrue, Derrick, Al, and even Jayson to get more comfortable in Boston’s defensive schemes.

The other area I’d like to see him focus on is developing a better feel around the rim. He’s capable of getting up quickly for easy lobs and putbacks, but he has a tendency to rush himself. With a bit more composure and an improved touch, Queta could have a lot of upside. The potential is there, and I’m extremely curious to see how much trust Mazzulla puts in him early on next season.

Big Deuce

The roster is more-or-less set heading in to next season. If Lonnie Walker IV ends up taking the remaining roster spot, we can’t expect any big shakeups to the big-man rotation (barring an unforeseen and unlikely trade).

However, there is one unconventional option that’s especially intriguing to me given the current state of the team – playing Tatum at the five. Basketball is becoming more positionless by the day, and with Jayson’s gravity, floor spacing, and overall basketball IQ, he is the perfect small-ball center.

Jayson proved his ability to hold his own against centers like Myles Turner, Evan Mobley, Derrick Lively, and Daniel Gafford in the playoffs. While he’s been steadily adding muscle since entering the league, he’s probably not going to be able to win a battle of strength against guys like Bam Adebayo, Joel Embiid, Nikola Jokic, or Anthony Davis. However, he does a great job of mucking up pick-and-rolls, and denying entry passes into the paint.

With Tatum anchoring the defense from the paint, he can act as the general, reading the offense and directing his teammates. He does an excellent job of jumping passing lanes, and his switchability makes him a reliable last line of defense. He’s a great rebounder, a great playmaker, and he can push the ball up the court quickly for easy transition buckets off of misses. I’d love to see Joe try a lineup of Jrue – Derrick – Hauser (or Scheierman/Walsh depending on their development) – Jaylen – Tatum.

While Hauser would easily be the worst defender here, even he is underrated in that regard. He held his own throughout the playoffs, and his shooting ability more than makes up for any shortcomings he has in that department.

Beyond Hauser, this lineup is full of elite defenders, and maybe more than that, elite offensive players. Everyone is capable of creating shots for themselves and others, and they can all score at a high clip too. The lineup takes some inspiration from maybe Boston’s toughest matchup these last playoffs, the Indiana Pacers. The Pacers are able to give teams problems with just how quickly they run the floor and how many shots they manage to get off per game. With this lineup, the Celtics can use the same mindset to overwhelm teams offensively without conceding anything on defense.

Final Verdict

After Al Horford, there is no clear-cut number two option to fill in for Porzingis. Joe Mazzulla certainly has a lot of toys he can play with. He’ll have at least two months to try them out and pick his favorite. Even after Porzingis’s return, Joe will have to manage the minutes of Al and Kristaps to prepare them for the playoffs. It will be interesting to see if Tillman and Queta are able to carve out meaningful minutes for themselves after having limited opportunities last year. Either one could be a candidate to take on more of Horford’s role in the future, as he’s on the tail end of his career. For now, the primary goal is getting back to the Finals as healthy as possible.