Xavier Tillman is a good player who helped the Celtics run at the championship last year and will help them this year. However, Boston has a crowded center room so what kind of role will Tillman have this season?
First let’s go over Tillman as a player.
Tillman is a limited offensive player. He is not a pick-and-roll player. In Memphis last year, they scored just 0.67 points per possession when Tillman was the screen setter in pick-and-rolls. That number was 2nd worst on the team, with only Luke Kennard being worse. As a result, Boston did not use him in their pick-and-roll game after the trade.
However, his three-point shot has improved during the preseason.
Tillman shot 55% on threes in the preseason, albeit a small sample size. The 3-out-4 from above the break is encouraging but it is only four attempts and not enough to make a definitive statement. Throughout his career, Tillman has been bad from beyond the arch at just 27% for his career. Of course, his shot in Game 3 is one we’ll all remember:
I will always plug Banner 18 videos.
For his career, the three-point shot has not been there, but I am hopeful that it will start to come around this season but there is no guarantee of that.
Tillman was very good inside the arch post-trade last year, shooting 68% from two-point range and 71% on shots less than ten feet from the basket. He is not a useless offensive player — just a limited one.
The strongest part of Tillman’s game is his defense. During the 2023 playoffs, he was the starting center for Memphis due to injuries to Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke. According to PBP Stats, Memphis’ defense was 9.9 points better per 100 possessions with Tillman on the court versus when he was on the bench. Tillman is a very versatile defensive player; he can move his feet in space very well and can also guard centers well.
In the playoffs last year, there was a noticeable difference when Tillman was out there and when Luke Kornet was out there. Kornet had a great preseason and will likely see a bulk of the regular season reps but Tillman is less exploitable in a playoff series. The numbers back that up.
In 133 playoff minutes, the Celtics were -7.0 points per 100 possessions and gave up 114.8 points per 100 possessions with Kornet on the court. When Tillman was out there, the Celtics were +20.0 and gave up 100.0 points per 100 possessions in 69 minutes. Thus, while the sample size was small, Tillman was the better player in the playoffs.
So the question has to be asked; what will Xavier Tillman’s role be this season?
As was mentioned in my Celtics roster rankings, 21% of Tillman’s minutes after the trade came at the 4. I expect that number to either remain there or jump because of how many useful centers the Celtics have.
It is for this reason that the team wants Tillman to become more of a threat from 3-point range. Having 2 non-shooters on the court, Kornet and Tillman, would not be very Mazzulla Ball-like, so expect Tillman to continue to take more three pointers.
It will be nice to have Tillman with Porzingis out until around Christmas and Horford not playing back-to-backs but where does Tillman get his minutes when Horford is in the lineup?
Could he be that 9th man in the Celtics rotation? This would allow the team to use less of their other centers and play bigger more often. Horford and Tillman only played 77 minutes combined together in the regular season and playoffs but with a +21.7 net rating in the regular season and a +50.0 net rating in playoffs, there are positive signs that there could be some juice to those lineups.
A lot of people want Jordan Walsh to get those minutes, but Tillman has more experience and is a better player at this stage in their careers. Though Walsh did have a good preseason, I would lean Tillman to be the Celtics 9th man early in the season.
When Porzingis is back. Tillman will be a useful member of the stay ready crew but until then, X has a real chance to carve out a role for himself.
