What if the Celtics bench isn’t deep enough?

Brad Stevens has tried his best to retain as much of last year’s championship roster as possible in hopes of the Celtics finding more success through continuity. Only two players chose not to return, those being Svi Mykhailiuk, who is now on a 4-year $15M deal in Utah, and Oshae Brissett, who at this point remains unsigned. As of now, the only guaranteed addition to the Celtics roster has been rookie Baylor Scheierman, with the possibility of Lonnie Walker IV or one of their other training camp signees taking the lone remaining roster spot. All that to say, the roster is basically set for the start of the season, and they’re looking to run it back.

We saw this team get it done last year, but…

What if all the haters were right? What if it was a fluke? What if the Celtics really did benefit from a dysfunctional, injured Eastern Conference? What if the East teams improved enough to challenge them? What if Boston’s starters can’t carry as much of the load to bring them back to the promised land? What if the Celtics bench isn’t deep enough?

DISCLAIMER: I can’t emphasize enough that I do not believe that is the case. I am not trying to run a Felger and Mazz segment here. Please do not direct your pitchforks and torches towards me for trying to have a little fun with theoretical situations in the remaining days of the offseason.

Alright, back to our imaginations.

I think it’s fair to say that the top-8 for the Celtics is very well established. The starting lineup would consist of Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, and Kristaps Porzingis, with Payton Pritchard, Sam Hauser, and Al Horford being the first guard, wing, and big off the bench, respectively. An 8-man rotation is ideal come playoff time, but anything can happen over the course of a season.

Kristaps Porzingis is already set to be sidelined until at least December. Al Horford still holds a lot of responsibility for a 38-year-old by non-Lebron NBA standards, and his load isn’t getting any smaller with Porzingis out. Guys like Baylor, Jaden Springer, Jordan Walsh, and Neemias Queta are unproven at this point. Luke Kornet and Xavier Tilman have more NBA experience, but neither has presented themselves as the clear backup big, and there’s a chance neither of them does.

I wouldn’t expect Brad to make a move anytime soon, if at all, but come deadline time that may be a different story. Maybe someone key goes down for an extended time. Maybe the unproven guys fail to impress and don’t earn any additional minutes. Maybe the big-man rotation remains murky. Maybe the Celtics are just underperforming, and ownership forces Brad Stevens’s hand to make some changes in order to justify the enormous tax bill that they’re footing. How could the Celtics pivot to put themselves back on track?

With the new CBA rules that becomes pretty difficult. The Celtics are hard-capped at the 2^nd tax apron, meaning they are severely limited in their trade and buyout options. Keith Smith is an excellent resource for all things cap related, and created a very helpful graphic covering the options teams in each threshold have.

So basically, Boston can’t send cash, can’t aggregate two or more players in a trade, and it’s almost impossible to make trades with other teams who are also over the 2nd apron.

With that in mind, let’s set some ground rules for the sake of this exercise. We’re not looking to change the team too drastically which means the top 8 are going to be considered untouchable (except in one farfetched offer). Scheierman, being a rookie, is not going to be included in trade offers either as he is too much of an unknown, and is likely part of Boston’s future plans for when they try to get out of the 2nd tax apron.

I included draft compensation in some of the graphics, but I’m not an expert in what each team considers “fair” draft compensation. It’s something that is a lot more subjective, and is something that I don’t often predict accurately in trades. There’s a lot of volatility between draft classes, team needs, and pick position. For that reason, I will leave determining that to the GM’s of the NBA world, and will only mention the need for it in certain trades.

Okay, we’ve set the scene. Let’s finally get to the fun part and explore some options.

Winging It:

Kornet is a fan and team favorite, not to mention a reliable backup big, so this one is more of a “break glass in case of emergency” trade. If the Celtics find themselves in a position where they need to increase their wing depth, this is likely one of their better options, especially if Tilman or Queta prove they can hold their own even after KP is back. There aren’t too many veteran options on a minimum this year, and Ingles has his fair share of playoff experience. It’s made with the short-term in mind, and it doesn’t come at the cost of the long-term plans either.

This could also help out Minnesota now that they swapped Karl Anthony Towns for Julius Randle. KAT was more of a five and Randle a four, which works out for them in terms of playing him next to Gobert. Behind those two is reigning sixth man of the year, Naz Reid, who can play either the four or the five. Between these three, the Wolves have a solid big-man rotation, but if any of those guys were to miss any time, they get thinned out pretty quickly. Their next best options are between Jaden McDaniels and Luka Garza. McDaniels could slide in at the four spot, but I imagine he’ll spend most of his time at the three. Garza, on the other hand, rarely gets to see the floor, and is not out there for very long once his name gets called.

Over his last two seasons with Minnesota, Garza has played only 53 total games at 6.9 minutes per game. Not only that, but he’s seen a decrease in nearly every measured stat between year one and year two. He averages 4 points and 1.2 rebounds on about 48% shooting, which I wouldn’t say is awful, but is below where I would expect a near-7-footer to be. Kornet, in comparison, shot at a clean 70% from the floor last year. If Minnesota is in need of a budget big, Kornet would be a clear upgrade in my eyes.

For Boston, Joe Ingles leaves a lot to be desired on the defensive end, but he has the ability to make up for it with his veteran presence and floor spacing. He’s a career 41% shooter from three-point range, with 43.6/43.5/82.4 shooting splits last year in Orlando. He wouldn’t have a whole lot of responsibility, but if Hauser is sidelined or otherwise unable to produce, our bench gets severely limited on the offensive end outside of Pritchard. As of now, the next few up are Scheierman, Walsh, and Springer, none of which have shown to be a reliable scoring threat just yet. Ingles may be the one of the better options to fill in given the cap restrictions.

Win-Now Mode:

If the Celtics don’t end up getting enough production out of guys like Walsh, Scheierman, or Springer come mid-season, they may need a veteran injection to fill in. Torrey Craig is one of the better wings who could be on the trading block as a quality 3-and-D guy, though he would be a bit more expensive than Ingles. He fits in well with the Celtics system, and could play anywhere from a two to a small-ball four.

The Bulls are expected to be a bottom-tier team who is selling their veterans after losing DeMar DeRozan over the offseason. While other teams are probably going to focused on prying away Zach Lavine and Nikola Vucevic, Boston could try to take Craig off their hands in exchange for another young asset, Jaden Springer.

I will note that Chicago does already have an excess of guards who will be fighting for minutes. Coby White and Ayo Dosunmu are their breakout candidates leading the way, and with Lonzo Ball finally returning from his two-year injury-riddled absence, and new acquisitions like Josh Giddey and Chris Duarte, the Bulls are fairly set in their backcourt. That makes it harder to justify bringing in Springer.

My thought process here is that Chicago will likely be thinning out their rotation throughout the year in other trade packages. They’ve been stuck in no-man’s land for quite some time now, and it’s time for them to embrace the tank. Taking on young projects who have potential is their best path forward, and maybe in this case they’d need some light draft compensation to incentivize it, but Springer definitely has a future in this league. He has unteachable defensive skills that will only get better as he gets more comfortable with NBA-level play. If he can develop his shot, he could very well become the same 3-and-D guy that Craig is, if not better.

In the same vein, this trade is more short-sighted for the Celtics. This is a win-now move to push the bench over the edge in hopes of repeating this year. I love Springer, and I hope he comes around in Boston. Depending on his progress, though, his development timeline may not fit that of the Celtics.

2023 Re-draft:

I’m a UConn guy, so I’ve been a big fan of Andre Jackson Jr. since his college days. He plays with a lot of grit, and he reminds me of a certain fan-favorite who was traded away last season (if you’re reading this, I still miss you, Marcus.) Jackson was actually drafted just two spots before Walsh back in 2023 (36^th and 38^th respectively), but as of now he’s looked more NBA ready. For those of you who don’t remember, we actually had a chance (or several) to draft Andre, and I was hoping we would. In the end, we essentially received Jordan Walsh as part of the Marcus Smart trade… well, kind of.

The 2023 draft was infamous for Celtics fans (who cared enough to watch into the 2^nd round.) Boston received the 25^th pick via Memphis in addition to Porzingis as part of the Smart trade. Brad Stevens decided to flip that pick (Marcus Sasser) to Detroit for the 31^st (James Nnaji) and two future seconds, then traded the 31^st to Charlotte for the 34^th (Coby Jones) and 39^th (Mouhamed Gueye), THEN traded the 34^th to Sacramento for the 38^th (Jordan Walsh) and a future second-round pick, and lastly, just when you thought Brad was done, he traded the 39^th pick to the Hawks for a future second. Were you able to follow all that?

As you can imagine, and maybe experienced yourself, that was a stressful night for me. We had at least three chances to pick Andre, and we still could have ended up with Walsh as well. I don’t think anyone except Brad Stevens knew what he was doing that night, but he has more than earned my trust, so we ride.

Anyways, as we head into the 24-25 season Andre Jackson Jr. has spent nearly all of his time in the NBA, whereas Walsh was primarily in the G-League. Both are more defensive-minded and are a similar size, but Jackson plays like more of a guard, with Walsh playing as a wing. Both are extremely versatile, and both are in need of an offensive breakout to become a reliable backup option.

I don’t necessarily think the Bucks will make Andre available, or that they would take Walsh in return without some kind of draft compensation, though it is worth noting that Jackson Jr. received 18 DNPs after Doc Rivers took over as the head coach compared to the 5 DNPs he received before the coaching change. He also seemed to play about 4 less minutes per game post Doc takeover. Milwaukee wasn’t particularly deep last year, especially with Khris Middleton missing significant time, so Doc’s decision was surprising to say the least.

I think Walsh could learn a lot from someone like Giannis Antetokounmpo, and maybe the Bucks would be willing to make that investment in him. He’s got a similar build, but in a smaller body, standing 4 inches shorter and about 35 pounds lighter than Giannis. Just about the only thing the Greek Freak couldn’t teach him is how to improve his shooting form. He would be a bit more of a project, which is why I don’t think Milwaukee would exactly be thrilled with the deal, but maybe a second-round pick or two could sweeten the deal. Imagine having Giannis and Giannis Lite on the same team.

For Boston, they would be bringing in another dog, who is also still a project, but is more of a win-now player than Jordan. If something were to happen to Pritchard, or if the second unit wasn’t able to keep up defensively, I believe Andre would be a great, low-cost option to keep in mind.

Hello, Old Friend:

Yeah, I’m not very serious about this trade. I think the Pelicans would actually go for this after losing Jonas Valanciunas, and I do still like Daniel Theis, but I’m not going to spend a ton of time explaining this one. Maybe the Celtics really just wanted some more spacing? Probably not, though. Kornet is perfectly fine. I just think it would be really funny if Brad brought Theis back another time.

You wanna get nuts? Let’s get nuts:

Now hear me out on this one. The Rockets may hang up on Brad if he came to them with an offer like this, but if there’s a way he could make it work (more picks than pictured), I’d be all-in. I love Pritchard. His half-court shots in the Finals will live in Celtics history forever, and he was a big key to last year’s success even otherwise. There aren’t many players I would consider trading him for, especially on the budget deal he’s on. This deal is calling to me, though (probably because it’s one that the Rockets likely wouldn’t go for.)

This trade requires a very specific set of circumstances to even be considered. In this reality, we’re going to pretend that Jaden Springer has begun emerging as a legitimate backup guard option who could take over for Pritchard, if not this season, then the following one. We also see Houston at a sort of breaking point with their young core. They have an excess of forwards, and they have a few guys who are going to get paid soon.

Alperen Sengun, Jalen Green, Steven Adams, Jae’Sean Tate, and Jeff Green are all on expiring contracts. Jabari Smith Jr. and Tari Eason will be eligible for extensions at the end of the year. Fred VanVleet will have a team option at almost $45 million next year. There’s a lot of money to be spent in the near future for Houston, and in this reality, they’re trying to get ahead of that. In all likelihood, I don’t think they have any issues moving on from Adams, Tate, or Jeff Green if they needed to, but none of their contracts work in a trade with the Celtics, so just run with me here.

I think no matter what, this is a net-positive for the Knicks. Firstly, they get a more reliable big to backup KAT off the bench. Kornet, who started his career in New York, would be a great lob threat in the pick-and-roll with Jalen Brunson, and generally gives them more of the size they’re lacking, especially if Mitchell Robinson continues to miss significant time. He could also be a stretch-big in a pinch by going back to the three-point shot which he seems to have abandoned since coming to Boston. He’s not quite the defender Precious is, but I think all things considered, he’d still be an upgrade at a discount.

Next, while Cameron Payne is more of a veteran point guard who can help the team during their playoff push, Aaron Holiday is younger, and has potential to carve out a long-term spot on the roster. Their production was extremely similar last year. Holiday was a touch more efficient, while Payne was a slightly better distributor.

Aaron didn’t absorb all of Jrue’s defensive abilities growing up, but he’s still above average at the guard position, which is something that the Knicks could really use. He would be the third-string behind Brunson and Deuce McBride, same as Payne will be. They could also play Holiday and McBride together with Deuce at the two spot for smaller, more offensively focused lineups.

For the Celtics, losing Pritchard is undoubtedly a big hit. For this to make more sense, we’re going to assume Springer has emerged as a serviceable backup. Payne would be used to ease Springer into that role this season, with the hope that Springer would take over full-time the following year. Other than that, Cameron would be there for filler, though he does have valuable playoff experience which could be useful.

The real draw here for the Celtics is Tari Eason, obviously. Tari is just 23 years old, and could be a big small forward, or a mid-sized stretch four. He’s super athletic and loves to run the floor. He has active hands on defense, and he’s been working on his jumper too. He missed the vast majority of the last season to stress reactions in his left leg, but still managed to impress when he was available.

The numbers may not necessarily jump out, but on a Houston roster that didn’t really have set roles, it was hard for any of their guys to find consistency and significantly establish themselves with the exception of Sengun. It was even harder for Tari given his absences, and in this scenario, that makes him the odd-man out going forward. Celtics fans have been looking as Xavier Tilman as the next-up to replace Al Horford when the time comes. Tari could be a much better candidate, and he would most certainly be a lot more versatile.

With Al still on the roster, you have the option of pushing Derrick to the bench as the sixth man, and play Eason at either the three or four with Jaylen sliding down to the two. That would be a huge lineup which doesn’t lose a step on defense. And then you have Springer/Payne, Derrick, Hauser, Horford, and Tilman/Queta coming off the bench? Insanity.

Say you would rather keep Derrick as a starter. The same starting five that you know and love, and then you have Payne, Springer, Hauser, Tari, and Horford off the bench. The offense would take a bit of a dip now that you lost Pritchard (remember, though, that Springer has improved enough to cover in this scenario), but the defense most definitely takes a step forward. Another insane bench lineup.

Either way, the path forward is a lot clearer once Horford is ready to hang it up. Tari is a young project who could learn a lot in even half a season with last year’s champs. Maybe if we want to keep the fantasy going even longer, we can say that Springer becomes good enough to replace Jrue soon after to save money. Okay, maybe that’s too far for right now. Let’s dial it back a bit again.

So, the big questions. What’s in it for Houston? Can’t they get a better deal elsewhere? Yeah, probably. Maybe Brad asks them reeeally nicely though.

I believe that Payton Pritchard is a legitimate starting caliber point guard. Not only that, he’s certainly a heck of a lot cheaper than Fred VanVleet, and on a longer contract too. I’ve always looked at the VanVleet contract as a bridge for Houston. Not many people value him as a max-contract type of player, especially with the new CBA, and he signed on a short-term deal knowing that the rest of the team would be getting paid around the time his contract expired. He was meant to push them forward while their young guys developed. By bringing Payton in, the Rockets give themselves more of a future, and more flexibility with it to boot.

If they wanted to bring back VanVleet, I’m sure they could do it on a much more team friendly deal than his current one. They wouldn’t necessarily have to bring him back, though, and his contract could open up a lot of trade options for them to either tend to other deficiencies on the team, or cut the cost overall so they could pay to retain their young guys without a huge tax bill as they work their way up to contention. For the sake of clarity, I do need to establish that VanVleet is a better player than Pritchard. It would not be a one-to-one replacement, but I also think the price difference makes the value a lot closer between the two.

Houston undoubtedly is going to be building around guys like Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith Jr., Cam Whitmore, and Amen Thompson, all guys who play the same positions as Tari. That doesn’t even include guys like Jalen Green, Reed Sheppard, and Dillon Brooks who they’ll also be making a key part of their future. There has been speculation that they’d move on from Jalen Green, but I think it’s more likely than not that he sticks around on a big pay day this offseason.

In reality, Jae’Sean Tate is most likely of the Rockets forwards to be on the outs, but his contract doesn’t work for the Celtics, and I wouldn’t be willing to give up Pritchard for him even if it did. Just live in La La Land with me for a little while longer.

Precious Achiuwa is still a decent, young prospect, but is more of a filler here for the Rockets. He could hold down the paint as a backup for another season, any maybe he would come back on another small contract afterwards, but I wouldn’t bet on that. He would really just be another way to free up cap space for the coming years since he’s on an expiring contract. He also kinda reminds me of that late-career resurgence we saw from Kenneth “The Manimal” Faried in Houston some time back, but the league has changed quite a bit since then.

The Celtics and Knicks are going to need to be willing to part ways with significant draft compensation to make this worth it for Houston, more so Boston than New York. I can’t see the Knicks giving up any more firsts, especially since they’re not getting too significant of an upgrade. One to two second-rounders is all I would expect from them. Boston, however, would need to dish out at minimum one future first and some seconds. More likely, they would have to go as far as multiple firsts. Given how high the tax bill already is, they could be less willing to do that than in prior years, though.

Ultimately, this trade idea was made, and will only exist, in fantasy land. A boy can dream.

Final Thoughts:

The biggest thing I learned from this lesson? It’s very hard to make trades in real life compared to NBA 2K where you can turn trade logic and financial restrictions off. Finding something mutually beneficial from a fan’s point of view is even harder. I scrapped at least three more trades from this piece because I just couldn’t justify them.

A lot of them were guys who could be on the move, but would likely garner more interest than Boston could keep up with. Others were guys who Boston could get, but who wouldn’t move the needle much, if at all. Unless the Celtics are looking to make a splash by moving someone from the top 8, they’re pretty limited in the trade market. For those curious, here’s a few of the targets who Boston technically could trade for, but wouldn’t make sense for one reason or another: Tre Mann, Garrett Temple, Ben Sheppard, Santi Aldama, Walker Kessler, Kevin Love.

All of that being said, the Celtics are fortunate enough to be in a great position with their current roster. Hopefully no unforeseen circumstances come into play so that remains the case throughout the year. It is good to have at least a vague idea what our options are if push comes to shove, though.

If you have any trade targets you think the Celtics could pursue this year, leave them in the comments. Feel free to get crazy with it. We’re probably not getting any of them anyways!