I consider myself something of a college basketball cartographer. Each autumn, I trace and trail the hills and valleys of this beautiful basketball-loving nation to discover which programs are best positioned to rule over their states.
But really: This is an easy graphic for you to take and share with your family and friends and use as bragging material. So get to it!
As is also true across a variety of states in next week’s presidential election, some races here, on the basketball front, are much closer than others. Agonizingly close! Meanwhile, some states only have one or two D-I schools, so the logos never change and the ruling party is forever running the show. But with a new season less than a week away, we must again share the map on our journey to the Final Four. What follows is the ranking of the best men’s college basketball program — as projected/forecasted for the upcoming season — in every state (plus Washington, D.C.) with Division I programs.
Alabama
Alabama Crimson Tide
Outlook: I’ve got the Tide No. 1 in the whole dang sport going into next week, so obviously they win out in the Heart of Dixie. Most importantly, Nate Oats has Mark Sears back; the lead guard could be the most valuable player in the nation. A fortified restock of transfers and one of the best offensive schemes in the sport should equate to Alabama winning the SEC. But it’s not like in-state foe Auburn won’t be a factor. Bruce Pearl’s team is led by fifth-year senior Johni Broome, who projects as one of the top bigs in college hoops. The Tigers are top-10 in a variety of predictive metrics and are looking to rebound after the stunning first round upset loss to Yale in the 2024 NCAAs. Those two won’t be the only good ones here: Samford should contend for a SoCon title for the second year in a row under Bucky McMillan, and UAB is the preseason pick to win the American Athletic Conference. A football-obsessed state is going to be better on the hardwood this season than the gridiron.
Arizona
Arizona Wildcats
Outlook: Are you aware that Arizona is the third-youngest state in our nation? It was the 48th state, certified in 1912. The University of Arizona is 27 years older than the state, and the basketball program began seven years before the region was given statehood. Anyway, Tommy Lloyd’s program is likely going to be very good again and is near-100% going to be the best team in the state. Caleb Love, Jaden Bradley, Trey Townsend and Carter Bryant are expected to be the core of a group that will challenge in the new-look Big 12. Arizona State … has some problems. The Sun Devils are looking like a bottom-fourth Big 12 program, especially after getting rocked 103-47 against Duke in an exhibition on Sunday. ASU is probably going to be the third-best team in a four-school union. Grand Canyon is the overwhelming favorite in the WAC and projects ahead of the Sun Devils. Even Northern Arizona is a top-three candidate in the Big Sky.
Arkansas
Arkansas Razorbacks
Outlook: The world has spun off its axis if any program other than Arkansas is viewed as the best in these parts of any given season. John Calipari begins the final phase of his coaching career in Fayetteville, where the Hogs seem to have a top-25 roster and should be among the most heavily tracked teams in college basketball. They aren’t the team most likely to win an auto bid to the Big Dance, however. Bryan Hodgson’s Arkansas State Red Wolves are the overwhelming pick in the Sun Belt. Few mid-majors in one-bid leagues figure to be better than that group.
California
UCLA Bruins
Outlook: The blue blood of the West Coast has had a lot of intra-state competition for this honor over the past decade. Be it Saint Mary’s, San Diego State or USC, those three schools have ripped the preseason title of “Best Program in California” from UCLA many times. But now the presumption is that Mick Cronin has the roster and proper rebuild in place to compete for a Big Ten title in the school’s first year in that league. As for the aforementioned Cali-based programs … Saint Mary’s is again going to be a WCC contender and should be in the mix to make the NCAAs. San Diego State should still be a factor in the Mountain West, but it’s fair to see a step back after losing four significant players from a season ago. At USC, Eric Musselman replaces Andy Enfield and has a litany of older transfers. The Trojans are one of the biggest mysteries in a rather mysterious Big Ten. At the mid-major level, we will likely see UC Irvine and UC Santa Barbara jostle for Big West supremacy.
Colorado
Colorado State Rams
Outlook: The Rocky Mountain region might not get an NCAA Tournament team in 2025. There are five D-I schools in the Centennial State. Air Force, Denver and Northern Colorado were not picked near the top of their respective leagues. The two biggest schools, Colorado and Colorado State, have a lot of ground to make up after losing big pieces. Colorado had three players drafted, a program record, and is now expected to be anywhere from 10th to 15th in the Big 12. Tad Boyle’s coaching has been steady, so I’d hesitate on outright thinking the Buffs will suddenly fall off a cliff. I’m taking CSU, though, due to Niko Medved retaining Nique Clifford and more likely than not holding top-five status in the competitive Mountain West.
Will Dan Hurley and UConn do the near-unthinkable and become a three-time national champ in a three-year span?
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Connecticut
UConn Huskies
Outlook: The college basketball capital of the world. The Huskies are going for immortal status in chasing a third straight national title. Inside the Nutmeg State, the anticipation for men’s and women’s basketball is hitting a fever pitch. Dan Hurley has been gifted exactly what he was seeking: a ranking outside No. 1 nationally. Pair that with a lot of players who haven’t proved anything in a UConn uniform (yet) and it’s giving Hurley all the ingredients he needs to coach this season with as much intensity and chip-on-shoulder attitude as ever. This state might produce three NCAA tourney teams in 2025, by the way. Quinnipiac is the preseason favorite in the MAAC, while Yale is a close No. 2 to Princeton in the Ivy League. The Elis have made four Big Dances under James Jones. Those two teams meet on opening night in New Haven.
Delaware
Delaware Blue Hens
Outlook: The First State has two programs: UDel and Delaware State. The Blue Hens operate out of the CAA and rank ahead of their MEAC counterparts almost every season; so it will be again. Martin Ingelsby is in his ninth season at Delaware. The Blue Hens were picked No. 5 in a 14-team CAA in that league’s preseason poll. The Delaware State Hornets were tied for fifth in preseason voting of the MEAC poll.
Florida
Florida Gators
Outlook: Todd Golden’s Gators are comfortably in the top spot going into November, as FAU is undergoing a coaching change, Florida State isn’t relevant these days and Miami is hoping to surge back after a bad 2023-24. At UCF, Johnny Dawkins’ team could play spoiler and maybe sneak into the bubble picture in the Big 12. But Gainesville should have the best team in the Sunshine State, led by Walter Clayton Jr. and FAU transfer Alijah Martin in the backcourt. This hasn’t been UF territory in much of the past decade; things seem to be shifting back to normal. Tragically, South Florida’s outlook is unknown after the shocking death of coach Amir Abdur-Rahim at the age of 43 on Oct. 25. The Bulls were a great story in Abdur-Rahim’s one and only season leading the program, and now a group of men will play in his honor under very difficult circumstances.
Georgia
Georgia Bulldogs
Outlook: Perhaps Damon Stoudamire’s Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets can make a jump and really shock some folks in the ACC, but to me the fourth-oldest state in this nation is going to be ruled on the basketball court by Mike White’s Bulldogs. I’d like to think this program is going to be the surprise of the SEC and be the last team to make it out of the conference and into the NCAA Tournament. Even if that falls short, Georgia looks poised to be an above-average defense that’s highlighted by a freshman who could be a lottery pick: Asa Nowell. It’s time for this perpetually underachieving school to exceed some expectations.
Hawaii
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
Outlook: It’s Eran Ganot’s 10th season running Hawaii’s program. Despite the remote/tropical outpost, UH has been above .500 every season in Ganot’s tenure. No one other than Ganot has ever coached Hawaii for at least five seasons and been above .500 in each campaign. And here’s a treat. This year, he’ll get to host (likely-to-be-ranked) North Carolina before UNC plays in the Maui Invitational in November.
Idaho
Boise State Broncos
Outlook: I’m the conductor of the Boise State train this season, having ranked the Broncos 19th — well above any other human or computer you’ll find. Leon Rice has dutifully built one of the most consistent mid-major programs of the past decade. The point guard play is going to be high-level, combo forward Tyson Degenhart could be the most valuable guy in the Mountain West, and that home court is a hot barn to play in. For Idaho and Idaho State, both are expected to be in the bottom half of the Big Sky.
Illinois
Illinois Fighting Illini
Outlook: In totality, the Fighting Illini have been the best team in the Big Ten since Brad Underwood took the job in 2017. Illinois isn’t predicted to win the league this season, but it should easily rank as the top school in the Land of Lincoln again. Northwestern could surprise and fight for an NCAA bid, while Loyola Chicago has a chance to be on the bubble as well. But Illinois could have the most overlooked backcourt heading into November. Arizona transfer Kylan Boswell is playing alongside Lithuanian point guard Kasparas Jakucionis, who has lottery buzz already. The most likely league champ in this state is Bradley, which was picked to win the Missouri Valley and has one NCAA Tournament appearance since 2006.
Indiana
Purdue Boilermakers
Outlook: I think this is the only state in which the top team is taking a step back, while teams 2, 3 and 4 are all high-majors AND likely to improve, yet none could overcome the leading candidate. Purdue won’t be a top-three team, as it was last season, and it probably isn’t going to be a No. 1 seed as it was the past two years. But in a wide open Big Ten, the Boilermakers are still the choice over Indiana. The Hoosiers are looking to return to relevance after a down year. They’ve got Malik Reneau back, and he’s getting help from point guard Myles Rice and center Oumar Ballo, both of whom were plucked from the portal. I like Purdue just a smidge more, but it should be a close race. Look for Butler to improve after only 14 wins a season ago. Notre Dame should also experience a leap in standing, as the Fighting Irish won 11 games but are quickly building something nice under Micah Shrewsberry.
Keshon Gilbert will try to give Iowa State another win vs. Iowa in the Cy-Hawk Series.
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Iowa
Iowa State Cyclones
Outlook: To the Iowa State fans who have come at me from all directions for daring to rank the Cyclones 21st before a game has been played, take this graphic and share it with all of your Hawkeye-honk friends. There is no doubt that this territory is Iowa State’s to claim for the next year. The Cyclones should be one of the two-to-five best teams in the Big 12. The Iowa Hawkeyes might be an NCAA Tournament team … or they might not be NIT-worthy. It’s unclear. This state should have a good outing on the whole, though. Northern Iowa figures to be in the top three of the Missouri Valley, while Drake starts with coach Ben McCollum, who was hired after winning four D-II national championships in the previous decade.
Kansas
Kansas Jayhawks
Outlook: For the second consecutive season, Kansas is the preseason No. 1 team in the AP Top 25. Bill Self has the privilege of coaching a team that returns vital pillars (Hunter Dickinson, Dajuan Harris Jr., KJ Adams) and brought in highly touted transfers (AJ Storr, Zeke Mayo, Rylan Griffen). Can KU make the Sweet 16, though? The program has been preseason No. 1 four times under Self and failed to reach that far every previous time. At Kansas State, Jerome Tang has a team I think will be top 25-good, thanks to late-spring portal adds Ugonna Onyenso and Coleman Hawkins. The Sunflower State Showdown is going to be must-watch in both matchups. And Wichita State, though a couple tiers below, is moving toward top-100 status after some down years.
Kentucky Wildcats
Outlook: For the first time in nearly 100 years, Kentucky and Louisville hired coaches in the same offseason. We polled more than 100 coaches over the summer and asked which coach was going to be better over the next five years: Mark Pope at UK or Pat Kelsey at Louisville? Pope won by a 2-to-1 ratio. I like Pope’s chances in Year 1 as well. Big Blue Nation is salivating for the season to begin. It’s a roster overhaul, but Kentucky is in the preseason top 25 of a variety of human polls and advanced metrics. Louisville has a wider spectrum, but watch for Wisconsin transfer Chucky Hepburn and James Madison transfer Terrence Edwards Jr. to be the biggest names in red. Western Kentucky and Morehead State are coming off NCAA appearances, but both had coaching changes. The over/under on Big Dance bids in the Bluegrass State is 1.5.
Louisiana
McNeese Cowboys
Outlook: If you asked random college sports fans how many D-I schools Louisiana has, what do you think the average response would be? Five? Seven? The answer is 12. A fairly dense state in that regard, but it’s almost always the Bayou Bengals who rule here. Except. Hrmm. Well, well, well. This year it’s the Bayou Bandits! Will Wade’s McNeese Cowboys look to be the best in the Pelican State, and almost definitely will win more games than anyone inside these borders. McNeese won 30 last season, was a No. 12 seed and had its best season in school history. Another huge year seems to be in store. As for LSU, it’s the program’s third season under Matt McMahon and no one’s quite sure how good the team will be in a loaded SEC. The goal is to match the 17 wins from last season, but that won’t be easy.
Maine
Maine Black Bears
Outlook: Third-year coach Chris Markwood is making big plans from minimal kindling up in Orono, Maine. The Black Bears are nearly as isolated as any other D-I program, but the days of being a laughingstock are over here. The program is 28-34 in two seasons under its alumnus, which marks a massive jump from the state of affairs over the previous 15 years. Maine was picked fourth in the preseason America East poll and just picked up a commitment from Ace Flagg, Cooper’s twin brother.
Maryland
Maryland Terrapins
Outlook: Kevin Willard had a bad second season in College Park, going 16-17 and failing to find footing in the back half of the season. But this is clearly still the top program in the seventh-oldest state of our union. Expect improvement, but the Terps won’t win their conference, however. That might not be true of Maryland-based Towson, which is the preseason favorite in the CAA and brings back a larger portion of its roster than any other non-service academy mid-major. Pat Skerry’s Tigers are primed for a fourth straight 20-win season, which would be a program record.
Massachusetts
UMass Minutemen
Outlook: No team from the Bay State looks aligned to make the NCAA Tournament. I did rank UMass in my top 100 And 1, but Frank Martin’s team barely squeaked through at No. 99. I like that program to be in the top five of what could be be a three-bid Atlantic 10 in 2025. Elsewhere: UMass Lowell was picked second in the America East. The program has been D-I since 2013 and has won 48 games the past two seasons. As for Boston College, it’s a complete unknown. The Eagles made progress in Year 3 under Earl Grant, finishing 20-16. Now, with some significant roster changes, they’re expected to be a bottom-three team in the 18-school ACC.
Michigan fans hope Dusty May will have the Wolverines playing meaningful games in March.
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Michigan Wolverines
Outlook: Yes, that’s a maize-colored M on the map above. Many would take Michigan State ahead of Michigan going into November, but I am the biggest buyer on the U-M roster you’ll find. Dusty May enters with a really good portal class, led by the likes of big men Vlad Goldin and Danny Wolf, plus a deeeeeeep stable of wings (Roddy Gayle Jr., Nimari Burnett, Rubin Jones, Sam Walters and more). Then there’s Michigan State, which could be the best team in the Big Ten … or finish eighth. Jaden Akins will be asked to step into the role of floor leader. There’s been buzz in the preseason on the progression of big men Jaxon Kohler and Xavier Booker. Coen Carr might be the best dunker in college hoops. It’s a beautifully tight race in the state where Oakland gave us one of the best stories of 2024. We won’t soon forget Jack Gohlke and the Grizzlies upset of Kentucky after unexpectedly winning the Horizon League title under longtime coach Greg Kampe.
Minnesota
Outlook: The Gophers went 19-15 last season, including a 9-12 mark against league foes. It was a good step in the right direction under Ben Johnson. Then the program was pilfered in the portal, losing junior point guard Elijah Hawkins, who led the nation in assists. Cam Christie also bolted after one season to chase the NBA. Fifth-year big man Dawson Garcia stuck around and he’s going to be a stat monster because of it. Can Minnesota overcome low expectations for a second straight year?
Mississippi
Ole Miss Rebels
Outlook: One of the tightest races of the 51 we’ve got here (D.C. included). Chris Beard’s Rebels barely outrank Chris Janes’ Bulldogs of Mississippi State. Ole Miss won 20 games last season but that didn’t correlate to high rankings in predictive metrics. Now they’ve got a guard-heavy group, led by Matthew Murrell and Dre Davis, that figures to have this team in the thick of the middle of a very deep SEC. I think Mississippi is going to barely rank ahead of Mississippi State, which will thrive on the play of diminutive sophomore lead guard Josh Hubbard. Jans is 2 for 2 in making the Big Dance in Starkville. Going three in a row is legendary stuff at that program, but it means just as much to outpace the Rebels. Expect a close chase all season long.
Missouri
Saint Louis Billikens
Outlook: This isn’t the first time I’ve put a Billiken head on a map. Let the record show this is choice was razor-tight. I’ve got Saint Louis 76th in the sport, Missouri 81st. And it could be that the SLU preseason hype is too much under new coach Josh Schertz, but you won’t find me doubting Robbie Avila any day of the week. The Billikens have a chance to immediately matter and rank as one of the three or four best teams in their conference (Atlantic 10). That’s not the case with Missouri, which is coming off an 0-19 run against SEC opponents last season and trying to find footing in Year 3 under Dennis Gates. I think Mizzou gets back above .500, but the rigors of that conference are probably going to keep the Tigers from flirting with the NCAA Tournament. For Saint Louis, I think the hope is justified.
Montana
Montana Grizzlies
Outlook: The Griz rank 178th at KenPom.com heading into the season, while Montana State is in the rearview mirror at 196. These are the top two teams in the Big Sky, per the league’s preseason poll. Montana picked up seven of the nine first-place votes, with MSU getting the other two in the coaches poll, while the media flipped it: Montana State had 14 first-place votes, Montana 11, to outrank their foes in the Treasure State. Montana State is coming off a charmed run to the NCAA tourney under Matt Logie, who is a rising star in the profession. Montana coach Travis DeCuire is still superintendent in these parts, though. Look for the Griz to be above .500 for the eighth straight season under DeCuire thanks to fifth-year senior point guard Brandon Whitney.
Nebraska
Creighton Bluejays
Outlook: Greg McDermott was hired at Creighton in 2010. Since then, the Bluejays have outranked Big Red at KenPom all years but two. That will be the case again in 2024-25, given Creighton could have a national player of the year candidate — and the frontrunner for defensive player of the year — in Ryan Kalkbrenner. The Bluejays bring back other key pieces on a team that will challenge in the Big East and should again earn a good seed. Nebraska has a lot of players who have not yet proven their value in a Cornhusker uniform. But this team did make the NCAAs in March as an 8-seed, so perhaps the good juju will carry over.
Nevada
Nevada Wolf Pack
Outlook: The Silver State vacillates between Nevada and UNLV for supremacy, one of a cluster of states with just two Division I programs. As UNLV enters a big year for fourth-year coach Kevin Kruger, look for sophomore guard Dedan Thomas to be one of the best scorers in mid-major hoops. It’s unclear if UNLV will have the all-around support to rank top-five in the Mountain West, though. For Nevada, that seems near-automatic. Steve Alford’s program brings back a respectable amount of minutes from a 26-8 team. The Wolf Pack should rank in the top 70 in most, if not all, metrics by season’s end.
New Hampshire
New Hampshire Wildcats
Outlook: Forever a two-school race in the Granite State. Dartmouth’s football team is off to an unbeaten run through October, but I don’t expect the hoops team to be nearly as solid. Meantime, New Hampshire is now coached by Nathan Davis. He spent 2015 through 2023 coaching at Bucknell, making two NCAA Tournaments and finishing above .500 in four of his eight seasons. He’s going to at least bring some stability to Durham, New Hampshire, in the America East.
Rutgers could reach new heights with fabulous frosh Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey.
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New Jersey
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Outlook: Seton Hall was picked 10th in an 11-team Big East. Princeton is the preseason pick to win the Ivy League. (We’ve got two Princeton players in our Top 100 And 1 list as well.) But the reasonable choice for top team in the Garden State is Rutgers. This is a program that could have two top-five picks on the roster … AT RUTGERS. Can’t wait to see how Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey bring electricity to Piscataway. Now, the defense is expected to be dialed back, but if that happens in exchange for some bona fide glitz and glamour on offense, you know we’ll take it. NCAA Tournament expectations for Steve Pikiell’s program after a spotty 15-17 year. Princeton is the safest pick to make the tournament, but Rutgers has the highest ceiling.
New Mexico
New Mexico Lobos
Outlook: The Lobos are again the best in the Land of Enchantment … albeit with New Mexico State as their only competition. The Aggies went 13-19 in their first season in Conference USA, though they’re projected to be at or above .500 in Year 2. The Lobos, meantime, are the highest projected Mountain West team on average across KenPom, Torvik and EvanMiya.com. Even after losing the likes of JT Toppin, Jamal Mashburn Jr. and Jaelen House. With Donovan Dent back, Richard Pitino’s team should again clear the 20-win threshold.
New York
St. John’s Red Storm
Outlook: Not only are the Johnnies the pick, they are easily ahead of the Empire State pack. I have ranked Rick Pitino’s program No. 11 in the country going into next week. It’s a huge swing, but the team should be a lot better defensively. St. John’s began to matter last season in a way it hadn’t for a long time; I’m forecasting the 2024-25 campaign to truly bring this program back to the national stage we haven’t seen since the last century. Behind St. John’s, I go Syracuse, though I think the Orange narrowly miss the NCAAs. Watch for JJ Starling at the Cuse; he’s a terrific shooting guard. At the mid-major level, I think we’ll see good seasons out of Hofstra (CAA), Colgate (Patriot League) and St. Bonaventure (A-10). Colgate’s probably the best bet to rank No. 1 or 2 in wins in this state. There’s new enthusiasm in Olean, as Bonaventure builds for the future with the power of Adrian Wojnarowski, who retired from a wealthy career as the foremost NBA newsbreaker in order to use his connections to enhance his alma mater as the general manager of Bonnies basketball.
North Carolina
Duke Blue Devils
Outlook: This battle seems to flip every other season. Duke beats out North Carolina on the strength of its top-ranked freshman class, headlined by one of the most lauded incoming freshmen of the past 15 years to the sport: Cooper Flagg. Going to be a heavily tracked year in Durham, even more than usual. North Carolina is a close No. 2 — the Tar Heels have First Team All-American RJ Davis back, plus a couple of dazzling freshmen waiting for their unsheathing — followed by Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons are one of my chic picks to be among the 15-20 best teams in the country. NC State is coming off that all-time Final Four run, but I am expecting a fall back into the pack for the Wolfpack, alas. Look for High Point (Big South) and App State (Sun Belt) to threaten to make the NCAA Tournament.
North Dakota
North Dakota State Bison
Outlook: Maybe one of the five hardest state nicknames to remember? The Peace Garden State. Who knew! Anyway, this is still Dave Richman’s land, as the Bison were picked third in the Summit League preseason poll, while the North Dakota Fighting Hawks were sixth. The University of North Dakota has been Division I since 2009 and is yet to finish higher than North Dakota State at KenPom.
Ohio
Xavier Musketeers
Outlook: From Xavier to Ohio State to Dayton and Cincinnati, it looks like the Buckeye State should send at least four teams to the NCAA Tournament. The Musketeers narrowly beat out the other three thanks to Sean Miller’s veteran coaching presence and the return of Zach Freemantle and Jerome Hunter, both of whom missed last season due to health. Xavier was picked third in the Big East and has Indiana State transfer Ryan Conwell set to pop as one of the best shooting guard transfers in the nation. At Ohio State, a new era begins with Jake Diebler, who retained Bruce Thornton in the backcourt and brought in a litany of high-ceiling transfers. Dayton is my pick to win the A-10; Anthony Grant’s program is not going to fall that far after earning a No. 7 seed in 2024. Cincinnati’s due for its breakthrough under Wes Miller. With so many proven players back from a 22-win team, the Bearcats look like a second-tier team in the loaded Big 12. Elsewhere: Ohio and Akron will vie for MAC supremacy, with Kent State and Toledo likely to be within striking distance.
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Outlook: The Sooner State claims four D-I programs: Oklahoma, OSU, Oral Roberts and Tulsa. None of them project as NCAA Tournament teams in 2025. Oral Roberts is probably going to be the best of the four in respect to their conferences; the Golden Eagles should be top-three in the Summit League under second-year coach Russell Springmann. Oklahoma is now in the SEC and readies for its fourth season under Porter Moser. I’ve narrowly picked the Pokes over their rivals due to Steve Lutz’s really strong (and short) track record as a head coach. Took multiple mid-majors (Texas A&M-Corpus Christi and Western Kentucky) to the NCAAs in three straight seasons. But it would be a surprise if OSU or OU wound up top-12 in the standings in their respective conferences.
Oregon moves into the Big Ten, and it’s TBD on how the Ducks fit in Year 1 in their new surroundings.
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Oregon
Oregon Ducks
Outlook: Oregon’s key piece is probably going to be sophomore point guard Jackson Shelstad, who should have a coming-out campaign in Eugene. The Ducks project as a bubble-type team in their first season in the Big Ten. That’s more than enough to declare them preseason logo champs in the Beaver State. As for the Beavers of Oregon State, Wayne Tinkle’s team is in the WCC for this season and next, before rebuilding the Pac-12. The Beavs project outside my top 100 and the top 100 of multiple metrics. Tinkle is likely in a hot-seat season.
Pennsylvania
Pittsburgh Panthers
Outlook: The second-oldest state is going to play a pivotal part in deciding the 2024 presidential election. The stakes won’t be nearly as high on the basketball floor … though maybe I should take Villanova fans into account before writing such a declaration. For the first time in a long time, Villanova doesn’t load as the preseason pick in PA. The Wildcats were picked seventh in the Big East preseason poll. Pitt, meanwhile, lost a lottery pick and still might be better than last season. Look out for Jaland Lowe, yinzers. He’s a really good guard prospect. Elsewhere: Saint Joseph’s is the trendy pop team in the A-10; Duquesne is coming off its first NCAA Tournament (with a win!) in more than four decades; Temple seems to not yet be out of the woods on the gambling scandal that perked up last March; and Penn State might struggle in the Big Ten, but at least is has one of the best guards in the nation (Ace Baldwin Jr.).
Rhode Island
Providence Friars
Outlook: The gap will be closer this year than last. Providence is still looking like the best team in the smallest state, but the University of Rhode Island should be above .500 this season after failing to clear that bar in Archie Miller’s first two runs. Brown, which came achingly close to an Ivy League title game upset vs. Yale, is also going to be a quality Ivy League program. But Kim English’s Friars are the best of the four (Bryant, hello!) and are looking for Bryce Hopkins to return from injury and emerge as the go-to all-around guy.
South Carolina
Clemson Tigers
Outlook: Brad Brownell has never made back-to-back NCAA Tournaments but has a great chance this season. Chase Hunter is the head of the snake in Clemson, where the Tigers are expected to be one of the four best teams in the ACC. In Columbia, the South Carolina Gamecocks are expected to take a step back after making the NCAAs as a No. 6 seed in Lamont Paris’ second second. His top guy, Collin Murray-Boyles, is one of the best players in that conference. On the mid-major front, Charleston is a preseason player in the CAA under first-year coach Chris Mack and Furman is going to be good in the SoCon again with Bob Richey still captain of that ship.
South Dakota
South Dakota State Jackrabbits
Outlook: Owning a 109-48 mark, Eric Henderson is a mid-major coach on the rise. His Jackrabbits are still the best ’round the land of the Badlands. (I know SDSU is not near/in the Badlands.) SDSU, picked second in the Summit League to Kansas City, has Washington State big man transfer Oscar Cluff and sophomore guard Kalen Garry teaming up. The Coyotes of South Dakota were picked seventh in the Summit League poll.
Tennessee
Tennessee Volunteers
Outlook: If things play out as the pattern has been laid in recent years, then the Volunteers will have no competition inside state borders. As it stands, Rick Barnes’ program looks to again be near the top of the SEC. Names to know: Zakai Zeigler (point guard) and sharp-shooting North Florida transfer Chaz Lanier (shooting guard). Memphis rates as No. 2 heading into 2024-25, but it continues to be turbulent around the program under Penny Hardaway. The Vols and Tigers might not wind up winning their leagues, but Chattanooga could bust through in the SoCon under Dan Earl.
Houston’s Final Four hopes rest in the hands of NPOY dark horse L.J. Cryer.
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Texas
Houston Cougars
Outlook: One of the beefiest states in college hoops. Houston is the clear-cut pick here, but I’ll note that Baylor isn’t far behind. Plus, Texas, Texas A&M and Texas Tech should also make the NCAA Tournament. Kelvin Sampson’s Cougars are the preseason pick across the board in predictive metrics as the No. 1 team. Will be interesting to see if the Coogs can match that forecast. UH go-to guys L.J. Cryer, Emanuel Sharp and J’Wan Roberts will compete with Kansas, Iowa State, Baylor and Arizona in a stacked-stacked-STACKED Big 12. A&M has Wade Taylor IV, who could average 20/night. At Baylor, look for Duke transfer Jeremy Roach to be the most important guy, unless freshman VJ Edgecombe breaks out as a 15/16/17-point per game guy. The Lone Star state has been a prideful and productive one in basketball for a good while, and it’s got better odds than any other to produce a Final Four team in 2025.
Utah
BYU Cougars
Outlook: The Cougars adapted well to Big 12 life last season under Mark Pope. Now Kevin Young replaces him, coming over from the NBA, and it looks like the Cougs have the top outfit in the Beehive State. BYU was able to retain a lot of its best talent, including Dallin Hall. Fans are expecting an NCAA Tournament in Year 1. (I’m not there yet.) Meantime, Utah is in a year of transition into the Big 12 under Craig Smith, who’s done OK but not yet broken through with the Utes. He needs to avoid a sub-.500 season to stay off the hot seat. In Logan, Utah State had a great year under Danny Sprinkle, but he left for Washington, so Jerrod Calhoun is now running the show — and the Aggies could still be a factor in the Mountain West.
Vermont
Vermont Catamounts
Outlook: Another year, another Vermont team that’s well ahead of the America East pack and is going to strut to at least 22 or 23 wins. John Becker is one of the best mid-major coaches in the country. To go 308-120 (.720 winning percentage) at a small school tucked in the foothills Green Mountains — hundreds of miles from any agglomeration of Division I talent — is a crazy accomplishment.
Virginia
Virginia Cavaliers
Outlook: Even with the stunning mid-October retirement from Tony Bennett, the Wahoos can be the best program in this Commonwealth. I’ll rank them accordingly, but slightly. The team that’s most likely to challenge UVa is VCU, the projected Atlantic 10 champion under second-year coach Ryan Odom (who will become a Virginia head coaching candidate if VCU makes the 2025 NCAA Tournament and Virginia does not). The Rams are led by one of the better mid-major players in the country, fifth-year guard Max Shulga. As for Virginia, there are a lot of new pieces and roles still to be defined. (One guy just bounced for the portal Tuesday.) Expect a two-school race in this state, as Virginia Tech’s roster situation seems troublesome, especially after former Temple player Hysier Miller was dismissed from the team last week.
Michael Ajayi, a slept-on transfer, will try to have Gonzaga leave the WCC on a high note.
USATSI
Washington
Gonzaga Bulldogs
Outlook: The Bulldogs have been the best program in the top left of the continental United States for more than 20 years running. They are in no danger of having that status change over the next six months. Mark Few’s team is ranked in the top 10 of most preseason polls and rankings and should be among the best offensive units college basketball has to offer yet again. Elsewhere, the University of Washington hired Danny Sprinkle to replace Mike Hopkins; Washington State (temporarily in the WCC with Gonzaga) hired David Riley from Eastern Washington to succeed Kyle Smith; and Seattle U looks for a fourth straight 20-win outing in the WAC under Chris Victor.
Washington, D.C.
Georgetown Hoyas
Outlook: The Hoyas were 192nd at KenPom but still finished ahead of Howard, American and George Washington last season, the first campaign under Ed Cooley. The Hoyas will outpace their District peers as usual yet again, but how big can this jump be? I’ve got Georgetown in my top 101, but on the back end. Jayden Epps’ return could lead to some increased success; he averaged 18.5 points a season ago, the most of any player who is returning in the Big East. If you’re looking for an Atlantic 10 mover, Chris Caputo’s George Washington team could be the surprise group that flirts with top-four status in that league. And I’m in on Howard coach Kenny Blakeney, as I wrote in my best-of-the-rest preview here.
West Virginia
West Virginia Mountaineers
Outlook: WVU ranks well ahead of Marshall, as has been the case for 99% of the time these two have played D-I ball. The Mountaineers aren’t expected to be good, though. New coach Darian DeVries brings along his talented son Tucker to help ease the transition after WVU was thrown into chaos by the forced retirement of Bob Huggins in the late spring of 2023. WVU was 9-23 under interim Josh Eilert. Now the ‘Eers will try to avoid a bottom-three finish in the 16-team Big 12.
Wisconsin
Marquette Golden Eagles
Outlook: Wisconsin has been Marquette territory the past two seasons under Shaka Smart and figures to be that again in 2024-25. The Golden Eagles bring back a higher portion of starters and established role players than almost any other high-major program. I like MU to be top-20 in the country, top-three in the Big East and good for a fourth straight NCAA trip under Smart. The Badgers have some big questions after losing key pieces in the portal. Greg Gard’s program was a 5-seed last season but was upset in the first round by James Madison. They were picked 12th in the 18-team Big Ten by our panel here at CBS Sports. Elsewhere in the Badger State, we’ve got coaching intrigue in Green Bay. Doug Gottlieb is now running the Phoenix, and doing so while maintaining his national radio show for Fox Sports. No clue how this goes, but it will bring interest to the Horizon League.
Wyoming
Wyoming Cowboys
Outlook: The lone D-I program in this state, and almost certainly always will be. The last four Wyoming coaches did not stay longer than five seasons. Sundance Wicks, who comes over from Green Bay, is now the head coach after Jeff Linder left to be an assistant for his friend Grant McCasland at Texas Tech following the Cowboys’ 15-17 season. The Cowboys project as a bottom-half Mountain West team.
College basketball rankings: The Top 100 and 1 best players entering the 2024-25 season
Kyle Boone
