March Madness games can be overly influential for prospects’ draft stock. These are the most visible games of the season and performance in these often shifts the placement of prospects drastically on mainstream boards. This often goes too far, but tournament games can offer valuable data points for prospects.
Let’s discuss three of the most intriguing potential prospect matchups in the first few rounds of the tournament.
Derik Queen vs Florida – Sweet 16
Queen has played like one of the nation’s best players, dominating as a scorer and creator for an excellent Maryland team. If they can win their first two games (which won’t be easy), Queen will match up against the hottest team in the country in March Madness. The Gators have a first-round quality big in Alex Condon, who could give Queen some trouble with his size and mobility on both ends.
An elite Florida offense will give Queen all he can handle, pulling him out of the paint and challenging him with drives and shots at the rim. Maryland will need him to dominate as a post-up, pick and roll and isolation scorer to keep pace with the Gators. Florida would be the best team Queen has faced all season, presenting a notable challenge against an elite squad full of NBA talent.
Danny Wolf vs UC San Diego – Round of 64
The Wolverines drew an unfortunate first-round matchup with a strong UC San Diego team. Their biggest strength, turnover generation, lines up to capitalize on one of Danny Wolf’s big weaknesses. Wolf shot up boards this season for his handling and passing for a big, showcasing high-level skill that most centers can’t match.
Wolf has struggled with turnovers this season, posting a sky-high 24.6% turnover rate, the third highest of any high-major big. UC San Diego will challenge Wolf’s decision-making and processing, which NBA evaluators will monitor closely in March. Wolf playing smart basketball and weaponizing his size and skill against the Tritons could help scouts feel more confident about his projection on the ball at the pro level.
VJ Edgecombe vs Duke – Round of 32
Edgecombe faced a few high-level opponents throughout the season, but his biggest game yet could come in the second round if Baylor can beat Mississippi State. They’d face Duke and Cooper Flagg, the presumed top pick in the draft, in one of the marquee prospect battles of the season during March.
He’s already faced quite a few elite defenses; Edgecombe played three of Bart Torvik’s top-five defenses this season (Tennessee, Houston, St. John’s). Duke in the tournament would present a new challenge. We’d likely see Flagg check Edgecombe at least for some possessions, marking one of his tougher matchups this season. A strong tournament run against elite teams as Baylor’s lead initiator will provide more valuable data for Edgecombe’s ceiling projection on the ball.
