In Boston’s squeaker against the West’s worst Pelicans (8-32) on Sunday night, there was a bit of a rare hallmark in the win. No, it wasn’t Derrick White making a boneheaded mistake by generating a 5-second violation on a late inbound pass. For just the third time in nine games, the Celtics won a game after shooting under 30% from behind the arc.
It’s happened a few times in notable losses. Boston made just 18-of-60 when Marcus Smart and the Memphis Grizzlies came to town. An abysmal 9-of-46 buried a strong effort in Oklahoma City. And most recently, 11-of-41 couldn’t hold off a streaking Sacramento Kings.
They’ve been able to weather bad shooting nights against the Wizards and Nets and after a making just 13-of-44 vs. New Orleans, they narrowly won after a CJ McCollum layup attempt mercilessly bounced off the front of the rim at the buzzer.
Now, teams have bad shooting nights. Teams have bad shooting slumps that stretch over several games. However, there’s a troubling trend developing for the defending champs. Their three-point percentage has fallen every month — 40.7% in October, 36.7% in November, 35.4% in December, and finally, (gulp) 32.8% in January which has coincided with Kristaps Porzingis’ much anticipated return. Even more troubling is that they’ve shot under this 30% Mendoza line nine times already over 39 games. It only happened twelve times all of last regular season and three games in the playoffs (two of which they won).
Despite the slide, Joe Mazzulla has stressed process over results for the time being.
“The expected offense last year was, like, 1.2 (points per possession). They actual was like 1.16. The defense was actually a little bit better. This point last year, the offense was worse on an expected basis, but the actual was better and they were shooting 39% as opposed to 29% (from 3),” Mazzulla said of his starting lineup and their lack of playing time together this year. “When you take a look at the expected offense vs. where they’re at now, where they are, they almost had triple the possessions of the time, rhythm, and trust.”
Mazzulla has consistently pointed to some unfamiliarity amongst the players with injuries dotting the availability of the team’s top-8 all year. Opposing coaches have also adjusted their approach with them and if you ask ESPN Boston’s Brian Scalabrine, Boston is getting everybody’s best shot. Nobody is kissing the ring; everybody is trying to rip it off their fingers. There’s some truth in all of that, but ultimately, what should concern everybody is the Celtics’ shot.
Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, and Mazzulla have stressed that last season was last season and this season is this season. However, they’ve leaned into the same three-point heavy offense as they did in 2023-2024, if not more. Unfortunately, the make-or-miss stats have been drastically different, particularly over the last three-plus weeks.
Translation: when they’ve been good, they’re on par with last year’s barnstorming tour; when they’ve been bad, they’ve been really really bad and it’s come against marquee talent and sometimes, on the national stage.
Another way to look at it is that the good news is that they’re generating more open threes than last year. The bad news is that across the board, nearly everybody is having a down year from behind the arc. After being King of the Corner last season hitting over 60% of his corner 3s, Jrue Holiday has made just 17-of-61 this year. Sam Hauser hit 42.5% of his catch-and-shoot opportunities in 2023-2024; that’s down to 36.2% this season.
On top of their own struggles, opposing teams have shot the lights out in their losses:
It’s not just that the Celtics have had a bunch of bad nights shooting recently. It’s that whenever it happens, opposing teams have gone Steph Curry.
Tonight, the Celtics are 12-of-41 (27%) the Kings are 18-of-47 (38%). pic.twitter.com/ioGodN3gwz
— Bill Sy (@deliberatepix) January 11, 2025
“If we’re not making shots, it starts to wear on us a little bit,” Porzingis said. “And then we have 5% less effort on defense, 10% less effort, somebody takes a bad shot or I take a rushed shot or whatever — we just have to be mindful of those moments. Play smart. Take the right shot at the right moment. But still shoot the ball because we’re a great shooting team, but just being really smart about it.”
It may not be as easy as my colleague Oliver Fox simply asking, “do the Celtics want to be better than this?” A small move could be made to improve the roster on the margins, but ultimately, there may not be a better option than just leaning in to how they won last year and how this roster has been built and its strengths.
“We got to get those up. We had those numbers way up earlier in the season and now it seems like we’re taking less. I like when we’re shooting a lot of threes,” Al Horford said. “We have a lot of good shooters. We have a lot of good shooters, so I feel like when we shoot more, we have better chances.”
