The Boston Celtics started out the season going 16-3, but have since gone 16-11, now 4.5 games behind the 1st place Cleveland Cavaliers in the East. They’re currently 3rd overall in the league, also sitting 5.5 games behind the West’s top team, the Oklahoma City Thunder. After firmly finishing as the top overall team last year with plenty of cushion, fans have been concerned and disappointed with Boston’s recent slump.
Last year’s Celtics team was one of the best in NBA history. They finished with the #1 offensive rating, not just for the season, but in the entire history of the league. That, coupled with their exceptional defense, led to utter dominance, setting the league records for most 30-point (10, tied with 71-72 Bucks), 40-point (4, tied with 23-24 Thunder), and 50-point (3) wins in a single season.
They finished the season with a championship ring and an overall record of 80-21 including the playoffs, a win rate of 79.2%, which is the 13th best all-time. Their average point-differential through those 101 games was 10.7, the fifth highest in league history.
Boston sports fans have been able to enjoy a lot of success over the decades. They hold high expectations for their teams, especially for the Celtics who have the most championships, and also recently took over the highest win-percentage in league history. Unfortunately, that means that even with the team holding the third-best overall record so far this season, it feels as though the sky is falling for many fans.
It was extremely unrealistic to expect the Celtics to replicate last year’s success this year. Naturally, historic teams don’t come around that often. That doesn’t mean they’re above criticism or shouldn’t be held to a high standard, but we have to understand the context of the season.
The Celtics played 101 games last season, playing all the way until mid-June to bring home Banner 18. Jayson Tatum, Jrue Holiday, and Derrick White then proceeded to play competitive basketball for another two months, joining Team USA to beat France in the Olympics to win the gold medal, the last game being played in mid-August. That left them only about a month and a half off before they re-joined the Celtics for the start of training camp.
To make matters worse, Kristaps Porzingis had to get surgery shortly after the Finals, and it ended up sidelining him until late-November of this season, meaning the rest of the guys had a bigger workload until he came back. Usually, you would expect the players on a championship team to play fewer minutes per game the next season in anticipation of another deep playoff run. That hasn’t been the case for Boston this time around.
In the first 44 games of both last season and this season, Tatum (+0.5), Brown (+2.0), White (+1.7), Pritchard (+6.5), Kornet (+1.9), and Queta (+2.1) have all seen increases in their MPG. On the flip side, Porzingis (-1.9), Horford (-0.1), Holiday (-3.2), and Hauser (-1.4) have all seen their MPG decrease. With the exception of Al, whose MPG are nearly identical anyways, each of the other three has been dealing with nagging injuries: Jrue’s shoulder, Porzingis’ ankles, and Hauser’s back.
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Part of the minutes increase can be attributed to the lack of consistency with the team’s health. Porzingis has played 13 less games than he had at this point last season, while Jaylen has played 4 less, Jrue 3 less, Hauser 6 less, and Al 2 less. In fact, only 3 of the regular rotation guys have played more this season than last – Derrick playing 2 more games, Kornet 7 more, and Queta 20 more, though Luke and Neemi’s increased involvement can mainly be attributed to having to fill in with Porzingis and Al out.
The other reason for the increase in minutes? The Celtics aren’t playing nearly as much garbage time. While there’s no way of exactly tracking garbage time minutes, we can look at games that were decided by 15 or more points. In the first 44 games of last season, the Celtics won 38 of their games by 15+ and lost 5 games by 15+. That’s 43 of their 44 games which were decided by a significant margin, all of which likely contained garbage time minutes.
This season, the Celtics games have been much closer. Of their 44 games played, they’ve won by 15+ in 14 of them and only lost 2 games by a margin of 15 or more, the most recent one coming last night against the Lakers. That’s only 16 total games which likely had garbage time minutes, 27 less than they had at this point last year.
Other than the obvious reason of it being nice to beat teams by a buttload, garbage time minutes can be a crucial way to give your rotation guys much needed rest. Not only does it reduce the risk of injury, but it also opens up the opportunity to give the bottom-of-the-bench guys some extra run where they can build the trust of the coach. That trust can sometimes translate into short stints in the heat of games, giving an additional break to the regular rotation guys without having the fear of losing the lead or falling into a bigger hole. It may seem negligible, but over the course of the season, these extra breaks can add up to make a big difference.
It feels as though the Celtics are limping to All-Star weekend right now. They’re playing heavy minutes against a lot of tough competition, getting everyone’s best shot night in and night out. The much-needed break is still a few weeks away, though. We’ll have to wait to see if that can give them enough rest to get back to their dominant ways from last season and make life easier on themselves in the long run.
