Longtime readers know that I’m a big proponent for waiting 20 games or so before making definitive judgments about the identity and capabilities of a team. I call it the 20-game rule but it is, of course, just a suggestion. I can’t stop you from making foolish, outlandish hot takes based on a small sample size. I can only make suggestions from my rocking chair and shake my head at the impetuousness of youth.
The thing is, this year is a bit different. We know exactly who this Boston Celtics team is (perhaps more than any other season in recent memory). They dominated last season, right on through the NBA Finals, and brought basically the entire team back. Predictably, they’ve hit the ground running in the first few games of the year. We don’t need 20 games to tell us they are title favorites (though of course anything can happen in a long season).
What will take a lot longer to figure out is the rest of the league. In particular, I’m interested in the rest of the Eastern Conference contenders (or pretenders?). Let’s look at each of them.
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The Knicks finished 2nd in the East last year and seemed poised to be a major challenge in the playoffs before injuries derailed their chances. They aggressively made changes this offseason, bringing in Mikal Bridges and Karl Anthony-Towns and letting Isaiah Hartenstein walk in free agency.
They didn’t exactly look like a cohesive unit in the first game of the year. They repeatedly went under picks, leaving Celtics shooters with open looks. Bridges’ shot looked broken. KAT looked passive. In general, they looked like a team that is still getting to know each other, despite the much ballyhooed Nova Knicks connection.
As much as I’d like those fit issues to continue throughout the season, I tend to think that they’ll still be a strong contender once they’ve had a few weeks together. I do think losing Hartenstein is going to hurt more than they’d like to admit when the playoffs roll around.
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This one is a little easier to pin down. The Sixers have lost two games thus far and stars Joel Embiid and Paul George didn’t play in either game. The team is actually being investigated for the way they are handling Joel Embiid’s “ramp up.” Injuries are a funny thing. Past injuries aren’t necessarily an indication of future issues, but it is a concern. Age doesn’t always lead to injuries, but it doesn’t help. Maybe they’ll both get healthy, play a lot of games, and be available for the majority of the playoffs. I just wouldn’t count on it.
I’m not sure if the 20-game rule really helps here. Even if they look great after 80 games, they just seem more susceptible than most teams to seeing everything fall apart at the end.
While the Knicks and Sixers haven’t looked good thus far, the Cavaliers have looked great. Granted, they haven’t beaten anyone of note yet (wins over the Raptors, Pistons, and Wizards). But they seem to be fit and trim on the (Coach) Atkinson diet. I’ve always liked the majority of their players, but there have been issues about how all the pieces fit. It sounds like Atkinson has worked the rotations to give each guy more space to create and thrive.
That’s great, but we’ll have to wait and see if it is still working when they play better competition. This feels like a team that could be convinced to make a mid-year trade to balance out the roster a bit.
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The Bucks had a very disappointing and downright odd year last season. They traded for Dame Lillard (thanks for Jrue Holiday by the way!), got off to a fools-gold start, fired their head coach, and ultimately came up shot in the playoffs (in part due to a Giannis injury).
This season Dame is getting a fresh start. They added Taurean Prince and Gary Trent Jr.. Theoretically Khris Middleton could eventually be healthy and playing again. And ultimately, if Giannis is playing, they have a chance to beat anybody on any given night.
I think they need 20 games just to get everyone on the court and working together. Perhaps with a full offseason as the coach we’ll see some new wrinkles from Doc Rivers. We’ll see.
Below are a handful of teams that could potentially leap ahead of some of these teams already mentioned. My quick thoughts on each.
Indianapolis Pacers – Halliburton is shooting 6.3% from 3 thus far. Not great for the first pick of my fantasy team.
Orlando Magic – Pundits and experts have been predicting the rise of the the Magic for a couple of years now. They have the defense and a star looking to level up. But can they score enough points?
Miami Heat – They got thumped by the Magic and then beat the Hornets. Jimmy Butler has promised to be all business this year. Will they be legit or is Heat Culture in store for more ups and downs?
Atlanta Hawks – Murray is gone and the Hawks are back to letting Trae Young cook as the focal point of everything. From a roles perspective that makes more sense for a team led by Trae. I’m just not sure if that’s a recipe for playoff success.
Charlotte Hornets – They have Charles Lee and a healthy LaMelo Ball. Brandon Miller looks like the real deal. They could make a little noise this year.
Detroit Pistons – They are 0-3 but have played each team tough. They seem like they are turning their raw youth into good young players. But probably still have a year of growth and a lot of losing ahead of them.
The Nets, Wizards, Bulls, and Raptors are all playing Capture the Flagg. As they should.
The bottom line for most of these teams is that it is still too early to tell what they will be by the end of the year. Sure, there are some early season trends to keep an eye on, but the sample sizes are too small at the moment.
