Season glance: Games 20-22
Through 19 games, I have Missouri at a record of 14-5 overall and 3-3 in conference. So let’s get into February with matchups against Ole Miss, Mississippi State and Tennessee.
(Photo by Denny Medley – USA TODAY Sports)
GAME 20: Hosting Ole Miss. Saturday, Jan. 25, 5 p.m.
After winning a close game at Texas, the Tigers return home for a quick stop, hosting the Rebels, before heading back out on the road.
The Rebels are coming off a season where they went 20-12 overall and 7-11 in conference play.
Ole Miss beat Missouri 79-76 in Oxford for the teams’ lone matchup last year. The Rebels lead the all-time series 17-8 and have won the last two games. Missouri last beat Ole Miss 82-77 in 2023, the final game in a five-game Tiger winning streak in the series.
The Rebels opened the season on a 13-game winning streak last year, including wins against NC State, Memphis and California, but lost eight of it’s last 10 games in conference play and bombed out with an 80-71 loss to Texas A&M in the first round of the SEC Tournament to end any bid for another postseason tournament.
Ole Miss enters the season at No. 46 in the KenPom rankings.
Second-year coach Chris Beard returns alongside three of his four top scorers from last season and six transfers to go with three freshmen.
Senior guard Matthew Murrell (6-foot, 4-inch, 205-pounds) returns for his fifth season with the Rebels after leading the team with 16.2 points per game last year to go with 3.6 rebounds, 2.38 assists and 1.56 steals per game. Murrell was Second Team All-SEC last year and made 78 attempts from 3, tied for 10th most in Ole Miss single-season history.
Senior guard Jaylen Murray (5-11, 165) is back as well after averaging 13.8 points and a team-high 3.97 assists per game. In his first season in Oxford last year, Murray was instantly a key player running point and shooting 37.3 percent from 3, sinking 72 attempts.
Senior forward Jaemyn Brakefield (6-8, 225) is also back after averaging 12.9 points and 4.9 rebounds per game as the third returning regular starter for the Rebels,
Ole Miss also added key transfers in Malik Dia from Belmont, Sean Pedulla from Virginia Tech, Mikeal Brown-Jones from UNC-Greensboro and Drew Davis from Seton Hall.
Dia, a 6-9, 250-pound junior forward, was ranked No. 18 in Rivals’ transfer rankings after averaging 16.9 points and 5.8 rebounds per game for Belmont. He also had 26 blocks and 27 steals in 33 games.
Pedulla (6-1, 195-pound senior guard) played for Virginia Tech each of the past three years and was All-ACC Third Team last year after leading the team in scoring at 16.4 points per game. Pedulla was No. 44 in Rivals’ transfer rankings.
Brown-Jones was No. 46 as the 6-8, 225-pound senior forward scored 18.9 points and brought down 7.5 rebounds per game for UNC-Greensboro and being named First Team All-SoCon. He record six double-doubles and scored 39 points in two games.
Davis, a 6-6, 215-pound senior guard, started 36 games for Seton Hall and scored 15.0 points per game to go with 5.9 rebounds per contest. He was second on the team with 49 blocks and was named to the NIT All-Tournament Team.
John Bol, (I guess not related to Bol Bol from what I can find?) is a 7-2, 210-pound freshman who played for Overtime Elite and was the only ranked recruit the Rebels brought in. Rivals had him as a four-star recruit.
Ole Miss beat Illinois in an exhibition 91-74 Sunday and will open the season hosting Long Island on Monday.The Rebels play BYU, Louisville, and Memphis during it’s non-conference schedule.
I think this one goes to Missouri and the Tigers do a better job containing Murrell this year than they did when he scored 26 points on 7-of-10 shooting and 6-of-8 from 3 in last year’s matchup.
So a win for Missouri.
GAME 21: At Mississippi State. Saturday, Feb. 1, noon
Third-year coach Chris Jans is looking for the Bulldogs third-straight berth in the NCAA Tournament after Mississippi State went 21-14 overall last season and 8-10 in SEC play.
The Bulldogs won their first six games last season, but dropped back-to-back matchups, including a loss to Southern before finishing non-conference play on a five-game winning streak.
Mississippi State struggled through conference play, but beat Missouri 75-51 in the lone matchup between the programs last season.
The Bulldogs beat LSU and Tennessee in the SEC Tournament to earn a No. 8-seed in the NCAA Tournament, but they lost by 18 to Michigan State in the first round.
Sophomore guard Josh Hubbard (5-11, 190) returns after taking the league by storm last year with an average of 17.1 points per game in just 16 starts and 35 games played.
Graduate forward Cameron Matthews (6-7, 235) is also back after scoring 9.4 points and bringing down 6.8 rebounds per game, while dishing out a team-high 2.86 assists per game. He also had 73 steals for an average of 2.09 per game.
The Bulldogs lost Tolu Smith, DJ Jeffries and Jimmy Bell Jr. from their frontcourt rotation and Shakeel Moore, Dashawn Davis, Trey Fort and Andrew Taylor from the backcourt.
Jans added six transfers from the portal, led by Kanye Clary from Penn State.
Clary, a 5-11, 190-pound junior guard, was rated No. 15 in Rivals’ transfer rankings after averaging 16.7 points and 2.9 rebounds per game in 23 appearances and 20 starts for the Nittany Lions.
The Bulldogs also brought in Riley Kugel from Florida, the No. 128-ranked transfer recruit in Rivals’ rankings.
Kugel, a 6-5, 210-pound junior guard, scored 9.2 points per game and brought down 3.5 rebounds per contest in 11 starts and 33 appearances for Florida last season.
Mississippi State also added Jeremy Foumena from Rhode Island, Claudell Harris Jr. from Boston College, RJ Melendez from Georgia and Michael Nwoko from Miami.
The Bulldogs brought in two freshmen, in four-star guard Dellquan Warren (6-2, 180) and three-star center Chol Machot (7-0, 205).
Mississippi State opens the season hosting West Georgia and will play Utah, SMU, Pittsburgh and Memphis in non-conference play.
Hubbard and Matthews can both be big problems, but I think Missouri takes this game as well.
GAME 22: At Tennessee. Wednesday, Feb. 5, 6 p.m.
This will be the toughest game in this stretch by far. Tennessee enters the season ranked No. 12 in the AP rankings and No. 13 in the KenPom rankings.
The Volunteers went 27-9 overall and 14-4 in SEC play last season, bowing out in their first game in the SEC Tournament, but earning a No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Tennessee beat Saint Peter’s, Texas and Creighton to reach the Elite 8, but lost to Purdue to keep the Volunteers out of the Final Four.
Tennessee has made the past six NCAA Tournaments, as Rick Barnes has led the team to a 202-100 record in nine seasons.
Tennessee beat Missouri 72-67 in Columbia in the programs’ only meeting last year and has a 12-10 lead in the all-time series against the Tigers. You might remember Missouri’s two wins against the Volunteers in 2022-23, the first being the DeAndre Gholston half-court buzzer beater and the second being a 26-point performance from D’Moi Hodge and 24-point game from Kobe Brown in the SEC Tournament.
Seven returners, four transfers and four freshmen make up this year’s Volunteer roster.
Tennessee lost leading scorer Dalton Knecht to the NBA draft and second-leading scorer Jonah Aidoo to the portal, leaving senior guard Zakai Zeiglar (5-9, 172) as the highest-scoring returner on roster.
Zeigler started 30-of-36 games last season and averaged 11.8 points, 2.8 rebounds and 6.05 assists per game. His assist total was third all-time in Volunteer history and led the SEC, while he has made the All-SEC Defensive Team three times.
Zeigler is the only returning starter from last season.
The Volunteers brought in three ranked transfer recruits in No. 13 Chaz Lanier from North Florida, No. 20 Darlinstone Dubar from Hofstra and No. 116 Igor Milicic Jr. from Charlotte.
Lanier (6-5, 207), a fifth-year guard, spent the past four seasons at North Florida and averaged 19.7 points, 4.8 rebounds and 1.8 assists last season, starting 31-of-32 games.
He shot 51 percent from the field and 44 percent from 3.
Dubar (6-6, 220) a fifth-year guard, started his career with a season at Iowa State before playing the last three at Hofstra. Last year, Dubar played in all 33 games he could and averaged 17.8 points, 6.8 rebounds, 1.4 assists and 1.2 steals per game, while shooting 53.9 percent from the field and 39.9 percent from 3.
Milicic (6-10, 225) a senior forward, started his career with one season at Virginia then played the past two at Charlotte. Last season, he averaged 12.8 points, 8.5 rebounds, 1.7 assists and 1.1 blocks per game in 30 starts and 31 appearances.
The only ranked recruit the Volunteers brought in was four-star guard Bishop Boswell (6-4, 190) from Charlotte, North Carolina.
Tennessee lost to Indiana 66-62 in an exhibition Sunday and will open the season hosting Gardner-Webb on Monday.
The Volunteers will play Louisville, Virginia, Syracuse, Miami and Illinois in non-conference play this season.
Without Knecht, the Volunteers might take a bit to get rolling offensively, but I think they’ve got the talent to get back to the tournament and maybe compete to get to the Final Four.
Tennessee takes this win.
Conclusion
I’ve got the Tigers going 2-1 in this stretch, sweeping the Mississippi schools to get to 16-6 overall and 5-4 in SEC play.
I’m getting nervous about how many games I’m predicting the Tigers to win in a turnaround season. But that’s why I’m going game-by-game instead of picking based on an overall prediction.
