We are now deep into the season, as teams have played more than 60% of their games. With the All-Star break over, this gives us time to look around the NBA and evaluate how the Celtics’ contenders are doing.
We will rank the five most dangerous teams for the championship based on the Celtics’ strengths and weaknesses. For each contender, we’ll give a level of confidence that the Celtics can beat this team in seven games, from 0 to 100.
#1 – Denver Nuggets
The Denver Nuggets might not be the best team out of these five, but they are the best equipped to beat the champs. The Celtics haven’t beaten the Nuggets with Nikola Jokic playing since November 2022 – and he is the main reason the Celtics could be scared to face Denver in the Finals. Jayson Tatum might agree with that.
This offseason, Tatum said that he knew they would win the title once the Nuggets lost to the Wolves – leading us to think the Celtics are aware that the Nuggets are a threat for a championship run. And the reason for that is the three-time MVP. Jokic might be the ultimate weapon to dismantle the Celtics’ defense. The Celtics can’t match him up with Kristaps Porzingis. The Latvian’s size and rim protection aren’t enough to slow him down.
Usually, the Celtics would assign Jayson Tatum or Jrue Holiday to the opponent’s center. This approach allows Porzingis to roam the paint, playing the safety role while JT or Jrue slow down the opponent’s center. However, in most cases, the opponent’s center doesn’t have the same scoring ability as Nikola Jokic. The Serbian big man might be the best scorer in the NBA. Among players with a superstar usage rate, nobody comes close to his efficiency (66% True Shooting).
Like the rest of the league, the Celtics don’t have an answer for the Joker. What about the rest of the team? Well, despite losing an important piece in Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Denver found a way to remain one of the best teams in the league. They are the best team at getting to the rim, thanks to Jokic’s gravity and their cutting game. The Celtics’ off-ball defense has been problematic this season, and a series against the Denver Nuggets could be very challenging.
On the other side, the Denver Nuggets have weaknesses. Their two biggest weaknesses are transition defense and rim protection – which aren’t the Celtics’ biggest strengths. Joe Mazzulla’s team doesn’t put a lot of pressure on the rim and isn’t generating a lot of transition opportunities. Of course, they could adapt, increase their drive volume, and try to force turnovers as much as possible.
Nevertheless, based on the Denver Nuggets’ strengths and weaknesses, I feel that they are the Celtics’ biggest threat. If a series were to start today, my level of confidence in the Celtics in seven against the Nuggets is at 49%.
#2 – Oklahoma City Thunder
The young guys from Oklahoma are taking the league by storm with one of the best regular seasons of all time. The defensive performance from the Thunder this year is incredible. They have the second-best relative defensive rating of all time – beating the legendary 2008 Celtics, for example. Their defense generates so many turnovers and forces opponents to take inefficient shots.
With their aggressive approach, they have found a way to create turnovers every five possessions and are taking away drives and corner shots. This was done with Chet Holmgren missing a lot of games and Isaiah Hartenstein starting the season on the bench. Despite missing their defensive anchor, they maintained an elite level. But with either Isaiah or Chet on the floor, they reach an entirely different level.
While Chet can play a similar role to Porzingis in defense, Isaiah Hartenstein can switch. With these two centers, they can adapt to whatever offensive scheme their opponents are playing. This leads me to think they are equipped to slow down the Celtics’ offense. In their first matchup earlier this season, Isaiah Hartenstein was able to switch onto Jayson Tatum, and he is one of the only centers in the world who can slow him down with the ball in his hands.
Yet, while the Thunder’s defense is impressive, they have an obvious offensive problem: their lack of spacing. As most of us expected, I was convinced they would move to trade for Cam Johnson and add a shooting threat who can play defense to their roster – but they didn’t. With Lu Dort or Alex Caruso on the court, the Thunder are giving the Celtics an easy way to keep Porzingis near the rim – this wouldn’t be possible with Cam Johnson. If they go with Isaiah Joe, Cason Wallace or Aaron Wiggins, they are giving the Celtics an easy target on offense.
As much as the Thunder could slow down the Celtics’ offense, I don’t buy into their offensive firepower overwhelming the green army’s defense. As of right now, my level of confidence in the Celtics in seven against the Thunder is at 60%.
#3 – Cleveland Cavaliers
It wasn’t expected before the season started, but the Cleveland Cavaliers appear to be the biggest threat to the Celtics in the East. The usual rivals during the Jayson & Jaylen era seem a step behind. The 76ers are out of shape, the Bucks are too average, and the Heat were forced to trade Jimmy Butler to California. While the usual Celtics’ nemeses are declining, a new enemy rises: the Cleveland Cavaliers.
The Celtics and Cavaliers met in the playoffs last year, and before Donovan Mitchell went down, the Cavaliers looked like a legitimate rival. Despite playing without Jarrett Allen, the Cavaliers were able to put pressure on the Celtics thanks to Donovan Mitchell’s driving game and playmaking.
As CelticsBlog’s Mike Shearer noted, the Celtics struggle to contain quick guards who can pull up and drive. With Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland, the Cavs have two players with such skills.
However, the Cavaliers sometimes lack spacing when they play with their two big men, making it easier to contain their backcourt. They sometimes go to a single-big lineup, and when they do, Joe Mazzulla counters with a double-big lineup and wins the possession battle. With Kornet and Horford, for example, the Celtics can dominate on the boards when the Cavaliers decide to go small. When the Cavaliers go big, the Celtics can stretch the floor as much as possible with Porzingis.
The Celtics are equipped to adapt based on the Cavaliers’ game plan, even with De’Andre Hunter’s arrival. Yes, the former Hawk brings more depth on the wing, but this is not where the Cavaliers struggle against the Celtics. While facing Boston, Cleveland struggled because of their backcourt defense. The Celtics love to pick a target and attack Donovan Mitchell or Darius Garland.
Because of that backcourt issue, my level of confidence in the Celtics in seven against the Cavaliers is at 66%.
#4 – Los Angeles Clippers
Yes, the Clippers. The only reason they aren’t higher is that I still have a hard time trusting Kawhi Leonard’s body. Nonetheless, they feel like one of the biggest threats to the Celtics—if they can stay healthy. Despite losing Paul George, the Clippers remained one of the best teams in the West. Like in Moneyball, they replaced PG13 in the aggregate with Kris Dunn, Derrick Jones Jr., and by giving more responsibilities to Norman Powell.
James Harden also turned back the clock and increased his volume following Paul George’s departure. He has lost some of his burst, but his passing and playmaking remain elite. In the middle of all that, Clippers fans also witnessed Ivica Zubac’s All-Defense campaign. The big man has been one of the most—if not the most—important players for the Clippers. Without him, the defense collapses, and the offense struggles to function without his screens and Harden’s playmaking.
That is why they were aggressive on the trade market this winter. They needed a backup for Zubac to keep playing drop coverage—but with Ben Simmons, they can also transform into a switch-everything monster. Add to that Bogdan Bogdanovic’s playmaking off the bench, and you have one of the deepest teams in the West. They can play various defensive and offensive styles while having two of the best isolation players in the league.
In the playoffs, the ability to play two different styles at a high level while having elite isolation scorers is one of the best assets a team can have. Nonetheless, they will face spacing issues, and the isolation-heavy approach might not work all the time. Also, the deeper they go in the playoffs, the easier it will be for opponents to exploit their aging legs. Because of that, my level of confidence in the Celtics beating the Clippers in seven is at 70%.
#5 – New York Knicks
While all the teams mentioned before might have spacing issues, that won’t be the case with the New York Knicks. Around Karl-Anthony Towns, Tom Thibodeau has built an impressive offense with well-timed cuts and various pick-and-roll actions. Jalen Brunson is unstoppable one-on-one, and his incredible scoring ability forces help, which creates even better spacing.
However, this high-powered offense comes at a cost—a defensive one. With KAT at center, the Knicks are unable to contain the Celtics’ offense. They hope Mitchell Robinson will be their savior on that end, but I doubt he will be back and healthy enough to compensate for their defensive struggles. Moreover, if they play Robinson, their spacing disappears.
Despite an elite offense, the Knicks’ defensive shortcomings make me 99% confident the Celtics would beat them in seven.
The other potential threats would have been Dallas with Luka Dončić or the Warriors if they had better spacing around Jimmy and Curry.
What about you? Who do you think could beat the Celtics in seven as of right now?
