The Sweet 16 seems so calm compared to last week, at least in terms of the sheer amount of action.
The first four days is a firehose of March Madness hoops and bets, which is why so many people go to Las Vegas for it every year. You spend the days from selection Sunday to the tipoff of games breaking down 68 teams. Then all of a sudden, there are only four games each on Thursday and Friday.
The quantity might not match the first two rounds but there are some great games coming up. Let’s take a look at the games with picks for each one (spreads are from BetMGM):
Arkansas (+9.5) over Gonzaga
We saw in the second round that Gonzaga is beatable. Memphis put a real scare into the Bulldogs. Credit to Gonzaga for a great second half, but it should give their opponents some hope.
Arkansas is 17-3 in its last 20 games. The Razorbacks have wins over Kentucky, Tennessee and Auburn. Make all the jokes you want about those teams failing in the tournament, but those are quality wins. Arkansas has lost three games by double digits all season and two came back in December. In one, leading scorer J.D. Notae didn’t play.
It’s also very rare for a Sweet 16 game to have a spread this high. According to Matt Eisenberg’s tournament guide, there have been five double-digit spreads in this round since 2015 (2015 Kentucky and Arizona, 2018 Duke, 2020 … wait for it … Gonzaga and Arkansas) and the favorites are just 2-3. Gonzaga did cover as a 12.5-point favorite in the Sweet 16 last year, but it’s still a lot of points and Arkansas is a good team. It seems like too many points.
Drew Timme and the Gonzaga Bulldogs are looking to go back to the Elite Eight. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)
Michigan (+4.5) over Villanova
It’s not easy to take Michigan. Is this run a fluke? From Jan. 26 to the start of the NCAA tournament the Wolverines had one two-game winning streak. They were 17-14 going into the tournament. There’s no reason to go against Villanova, which just keeps winning.
Yet, Michigan’s talent isn’t a secret. UM just had a disappointing season, perhaps due to a very young lineup that needed time. Maybe the Wolverines are finally turning it on. Center Hunter Dickinson has been great this tournament and Villanova doesn’t have a lot of size. There’s a concern that Collin Gillespie goes off (Michigan wasn’t great against elite guards this season) but taking the 4.5 points seems right.
Story continues
Texas Tech (-1.5) over Duke
This wasn’t an easy pick. Duke has four projected first-round NBA picks and Texas Tech has none. At some point, it’s hard to win when your opponent has that much top-end talent. But other than a great finishing kick against Michigan, Duke hasn’t looked like a team with four first-round picks for a long time. They aren’t a great defensive team. Michigan State, which was not having one of its best seasons, had a good chance to beat Duke in the second round. The Blue Devils have been underwhelming for a while, and A.J. Griffin (one of those potential first-round picks) has an ankle injury that could limit his effectiveness.
Texas Tech is a really good team and has been all season. The Red Raiders are the best defensive team in the nation. They’re tough. They beat Baylor twice and Kansas once. There’s a lot of experience too, and not the burden of winning for Mike Krzyzewski that Duke seems to be feeling. Maybe it’ll be obvious when this game tips that Texas Tech simply can’t match Duke’s talent, but let’s go with the Red Raiders.
Arizona (-1.5) over Houston
There are three big reasons Arizona is barely favored: The Wildcats barely survived TCU in the second round, Houston is an analytics darling and Houston’s offensive rebounding prowess could be a problem for Arizona based on how TCU did on the boards.
First, Arizona’s near-win over TCU wasn’t a bad thing. TCU had recent wins over Texas Tech and Kansas. The Horned Frogs were playing well and did so against the Wildcats. Houston’s metrics (they’re No. 2 in the nation at KenPom) are impressive but that can’t be the end of the conversation. Houston was a No. 5 seed for a reason. Arizona isn’t bad in the KenPom category either, ranking No. 3.
Offensive rebounding could be an issue. Keeping opponents off the boards is one of UA’s few weaknesses, and grabbing offensive boards is pretty much the engine of the Cougars’ offense. I still trust Arizona. The Wildcats have had a fantastic season from beginning to end. The scare against TCU could end up being a positive going forward. Arizona looks like a good value laying only 1.5 points.
First Four: 2-2
First round: 10-22
Second round: 11-5
Tournament to date: 23-29
