And it all comes down to this. The Celtics host the Dallas Mavericks for Game 1 of the NBA Finals. It has been 13 years since the Mavericks won their only title in 2011. It has been 16 years since the Celtics won their 18th championship. This is the first time in NBA history that Boston and Dallas have played each other in the NBA Finals.
This is the Mavericks third trip to the Finals as a franchise. The first two times in the Finals, they faced the Miami Heat. In 2006, the Mavericks lost to a Wade and Shaquille O’Neal-led Heat squad in six games in the Finals. In 2011, when they won the title, they defeated the Heat’s “Big 3” of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh in their first season as a super team.
The Celtics have won the Finals 17 times and have lost in the Finals an additional 5 times. This is the 2nd time in 3 seasons that the Celtics have made it to the Finals. In 2022, the Celtics lost in 6 games to Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors. The next most recent appearance was in 2010 when an injury to Kendrick Perkins and some questionable referee shenanigans resulted in a loss in 7 games.
The Finals this year don’t lack for interesting story lines. It has been 5 years since Kyrie Irving played for the Celtics, but negative feelings toward him are still very strong among Celtics fans. After leaving Boston for Brooklyn, his Nets beat the Celtics in 5 games in the 20-21 first round. After the game, he made a big show of stomping on Lucky’s head on the logo. Since that time, he has lost 10 straight games against Boston.
We also have Kristaps Porzingis playing against his former team as well. Porzingis played for the Mavericks and with Luka Doncic for 2 and 1/2 years. It didn’t work out with the Mavs losing in the first round of the playoffs in 2020 and 2021. He was traded to the Wizards mid-season amid rumors of discord between Luka and Porzingis. After a year and a half in Washington, Porzingis was traded to the Celtics, where it has worked out quite well.
Porzingis has been sidelined since straining his calf in Game 4 of the first round series against the Heat. The Celtics went 9-1 without him in the next 2 rounds of the playoffs, but they are very happy to have him ready to return for this game. Porzingis has been removed from the injury list and now, the Celtics should have everyone available.
For the Mavericks, Luka Doncic is listed as probable due to a right knee sprain and left ankle soreness. Doncic has been a regular on the injury report all postseason but hasn’t missed a game. Since he has just had a week off to rest and heal, I’m expecting him to be ready to play without restriction. Olivier-Maxence Prosper is listed as questionable due to an ankle injury and will be a game time decision.
Probable Celtics Starters
Celtics Reserves
Al Horford
Oshae Brissett
Sam Hauser
Svi Mykhailiuk
Payton Pritchard
Jordan Walsh
Jaden Springer
Xavier Tillman
Neemias Queta
Luke Kornet
2 Way Players
JD Davison
Drew Peterson
Injuries/Out
None listed
Head Coach
Joe Mazzulla
Probable Mavericks Starters
Mavericks Reserves
Dante Exum
Josh Green
Tim Hardaway, Jr
Jaden Hardy
Maxi Kleber
Markieff Morris
AJ Lawson
Dereck Lively II
Markieff Morris
Dwight Powell
Two-Way Players
Greg Brown III
Alex Fudge
Brandon Williams
Injuries/Out
Luka Doncic (ankle/knee) probable
Oliver-Maxence Prosper (ankle) questionable
Head Coach
Jason Kidd
Key Matchups
Jrue Holiday vs Luka Doncic
Doncic is averaging 28.8 points, 9.6 rebounds, 8.8 assists and 1.6 steals per game in the playoffs. He is shooting 43.8% from the field and 34.3% from beyond the arc. In 2 games against the Celtics this season, he averaged 35 points, 15 rebounds, 12 assists, and 1 steal while shooting 47.3% from the field and 29.4% from beyone the arc. He is very tough to defend as he can shoot from pretty much anywhere on the court. If the Celtics can slow him down, it would go a long way toward getting a win.
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Derrick White
Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images
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Kyrie Irving
Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images
Derrick White vs Kyrie Irving
Irving is averaging 22.8 points, 3.9 rebounds, 5.2 assists and 1.2 steals per game in the playoffs. He is shooting 48.5% from the field and 42.1% from beyond the arc. In the 2 games against the Celtics this season, he finished with 21 points, 5 rebounds, 2.5 assists, and 1 steal while shooting 41.9% from the field and 28.6% from beyond the arc. Although Irving has been talking about maturing and being over his grudge against the Celtics, he will do his best to beat his former team and the Celtics need to do their best to keep him from doing so.
Honorable Mention
Jayson Tatum vs PJ Washington
Washington was a big addition to the Mavs at the trade deadline. He is averaging 13.6 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 1.4 assists per game in the playoffs. He is shooting 43.2% from the field and 36.3% from beyond the arc. In 2 games against the Celtics this season, he averaged 16 points, 4 rebounds, 0.5 assist, 1 block and 1 steal. The Celtics need to keep him out of the paint and off of the boards. With a 7’3” wingspan, Washington will likely be tasked with defending Jayson Tatum.
Keys to the Game
Defense – Defense is always the number one key to winning games, especially in the playoffs. In the playoffs, the Mavs are averaging 107.9 points per game (6th) while the Celtics average 111.4 points per game (2nd). The Mavs are 7th with a defensive rating of 111.1 while the Celtics are 3rd with a defensive rating of 108.7. When the Celtics struggle on offense, they have to be able to stop the other team from scoring. The Celtics need to play tough, lock down defense for the entire game. The Mavericks have players who can put up a lot of points in a hurry if the Celtics don’t play tough team defense. Defense is likely going to be what wins this series.
Rebound – Second to defense, rebounding is the key to winning. Much of rebounding is effort and the Celtics have to put out extra effort to win the battle of the boards. When they work hard on the boards, it usually follows through to the rest of the game as well. The Celtics are averaging 43.7 rebounds per game (3rd) while the Mavs are averaging 43.1 rebounds per game (4th). The Mavs are 4th with 13.4 2nd chance points per game while the Celtics are 9th with 12.1 2nd chance points per game. The Celtics need to put out extra effort on the boards to keep the Mavs from getting extra possessions and second chance points and to give the same to themselves.
3 Point Shooting – Both of these teams shoot a lot of 3 pointers. The Celtics are 1st in the playoffs with 16.5 three pointers made, while the Mavs are 3rd with 14.6 three pointers made. The Celtics are 1st with 42.5 threes attempted while the Mavs are 2nd with 39.5 threes attempted. 47.1% of the Celtics shots are 3’s while 44.1% of the Mavs shots are 3’s. Only 4 teams in history have reached the Finals while averaging at least 14.3 threes made per game. If the 3’s aren’t falling, the Celtics need to go to the hoop and not shoot themselves out of the game. On the other hand, the Celtics need to work hard to limit the Mavs 3 pointers.
Maximum Effort for 48 Minutes – The Celtics have to play hard from the opening tip to the final buzzer. They have to play hard on offense and especially on defense with no let up. The Mavericks are the toughest team that they have faced in the playoffs and nothing less than full effort from every player every minute they are in will do. The Celtics need to be aggressive in defending, going to the basket and in rebounding. The two games the Celtics lost in these playoffs were mostly due to a lack of effort, especially on defense. They can’t let the Mavs play harder than them if they want to win this game.
Bench Play – The Celtics need their players off the bench to play well in this series. In the regular season, the Celtics reserves were 26th in the league, averaging 29.3 points per game. The Mavericks bench players were 11th in the league, averaging 35.8 points per game. Dallas’ bench players also averaged more rebounds, assists and steals per game than the Celtics reserves. While coaches usually shorten their rotation for the playoffs, the starters still need to get some rest and they will need the reserves to hold their own while they are in.
X-Factors
Home Court Advantage – The Celtics worked hard all season to obtain home court advantage for the entire playoffs. However, they haven’t used that to their advantage in the playoffs. Their only 2 losses so far in the playoffs were at home while they are undefeated on the road so far. The Garden crowd will be loud and the Celtics need to use that as motivation to play their best for their fans and win their games at home.
Experience – Seven of the Celtics players have at least 5 games of Finals experience, including 4 of the starters plus Al Horford. Combined, the Celtics have 44 games of Finals experience. The Mavericks, on the other hand, have a total of just 23 games of Finals experience. Kyrie Irving has 13 of those 23 games with the rest of the team having just 10 games. This is the 2nd time in just 3 years that Tatum, Brown and Horford have been to the Finals. The Celtics need to use their experience and also to use the Mavericks’ lack of Finals experience to their advantage.
Officiating – The officiating can always be an x-factor. Every crew calls the game a little differently and teams need to adjust to how the game is being called. Will they call the game tight or will they let them play? The Celtics can’t let the officiating take away their focus and they have to adjust to the way the refs are calling it. In these playoffs, we have seen several games lost on bad calls at the end of games. The Celtics need to play hard and build a lead and not allow the refs to take the game away on a bad call at the end.
Official Report
Crew Chief – Zach Zarba
Zarba has a home win/loss record of 43-33. He calls 50% of fouls on the road team and 50% on the home team. The Celtics are 8-2 in their last 10 games with Zarba, including the Game 3 win over Cleveland and Game 4 win over Indiana. The Mavericks are 6-4 in their last 10 games with Zarba, including Game 5 win over the Clippers, Game 4 loss to OKC, and Game 2 win over Minnesota by 1 points. Zarba was the crew chief in Game 1 of Knicks/Pacers where they made a crucial bad call that pretty much cost the Pacers the game.
Referee – Josh Tiven
Tiven has a home win/loss record of 45-31 this season. He calls 52% of fouls against the road team and 48% against the home team. The Celtics are 6-4 in their last 10 games with Tiven including Game 1 win over Miami and a 1/22 win over the Mavericks in the regular season. Dallas is 5-5 in their last 10 games with Tiven including Game 2 win over Minnesota and a 1 point win over OKC in Game 6. Lakers fans called for Tiven to be investigated for missing an obvious foul call against the Mavericks that cost the Lakers the game.
Umpire – Courtney Kirkland
Kirkland has a home win/loss record of 30-34 this season. In the playoffs, he calls 47% of fouls on the road team and 53% on the home team. The Celtics are 8-2 in their last 10 games with Kirkland on the crew, including Game 4 at Miami in Round 1, Game 3 against Cleveland, and Game 3 against Indiana. Dallas is 7-3 in their last 10 with Kirkland, including Game 5 win over OKC. 2 years ago during the ECF between Boston and Miami, Kirkland was the replay official in Secaucus who said Max Strus was out of bounds on a key 3 in Game 7. He was not bad in the previous games in these playoffs.
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