Vaughn Dalzell breaks down his Elite 8 picks in the NCAA Tournament.
UConn’s bracket of death hasn’t appeared as deadly, but they still have one more test and that’s Terrance Shanon and the Illinois Fighting Illini.
This should be a fast-paced game with Illinois’ defense providing a good matchup for the Huskies to get off to a quick start.
The Huskies have scored 52, 40, and 40 first-half points in all three tournament games this season and Illinois has the style of play for that to continue.
Illinois plays the 69th-quickest tempo in the country and the 56th-quickest on defense. The Illini have scored 85, 89, and 73 points in their three tournament games with Iowa State’s stellar defense keeping them under 80 points.
However, no one outside of Morehead State (38) gave Illinois a competitive offensive game in the first half. Enter, UConn.
I played the Huskies Team Total Over 39.5 at -105 odds and would play the 38.5 for -125 odds. I also lean toward the UConn spread of -8.5 as they have covered nine straight NCAA tournament games.
I also played UConn to win the National Championship at -105 odds on DraftKings for 2 units. I love their chances to go back-to-back even more with Houston out.
Pick: UConn 1H Team Total Over 39.5 (1u)
Clemson held Arizona (5/28), Baylor (6/24), and New Mexico (3/23) to 14-of-75 from three (18.6%) in the NCAA Tournament, which makes this Elite 8 matchup with Alabama that more interesting.
Alabama is a top-five team when it comes to possessions per game, offensive tempo, and offensive efficiency. On the year, Alabama shoots 36.8% from deep (25th) and turned up for 42.3% from deep against North Carolina (11/26) after everyone outside of Mark Sears went 3-of-20 versus Michigan State.
If Clemson defends the perimeter, they can beat Alabama. Arizona has similar numbers to Alabama in terms of tempo, efficiency, and three-point marks, so I skipped the points and took Clemson on the ML at +140 odds. I’d go down to +120.
No one expected Clemson to get here, including me, but I expect we see at least one huge underdog in the Final 4, whether that’s Clemson or NC State.
Pick: Clemson ML (1u)
Season Record: 89-95 (48.3%) -11.08u
CBB Futures In My Pocket:
2u: UConn to win the National Championship (-105)
1u: UConn to make the Final Four (+110)
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