We’ve seen a lot of basketball and all kinds of upsets, comebacks, buzzer-beaters, and exciting performances, and it’s all led to one of the most improbable Final Fours in recent memory. We’re left with four teams, none of which are seeded 1 through 3. Another way of looking at it is, technically not one top-10 made the Final Four. San Diego State has displayed a lockdown, suffocating defense with timely offensive runs. Florida Atlantic has been one of the best all-around teams in the country as they lead the nation in wins with an absurd 35-3 record. UConn has looked like a machine since the tournament started winning all three games by double digits and three of four tournament games by an astonishing 24 points or more. And Miami has been on a wild run since trailing Drake late in the second half in their first-round game. The Canes have since run through Indiana, Houston, and Texas to set up this matchup with UConn.
What a run it’s been. Let’s look at some lines and best bets.
The Best March Madness Final Four Betting Sites
March Madness 2023 Final Four Odds and Schedule
*All times Central
Saturday, April 1
- No. 5 San Diego State (-2.5) vs. No. 9 Florida Atlantic | 4:09 p.m. | CBS
- No. 4 UConn (-5.5)vs. No. 5 Miami | 6:49 p.m. | CBS
No. 5 San Diego State -2.5 vs. No. 9 Florida Atlantic | 4:09 p.m. | CBS
This is shaping up to be an absolute battle. In the updated Ken Pom Efficiency Ratings, SDSU is ranked 14th and FAU is ranked 17th, meaning this is an extremely even matchup. I feel like I keep waiting for the Aztecs’ lack of offense to put them in a dry spell that they can’t defend their way out of. But it hasn’t happened yet. They’ve certainly gone cold for stretches, but they’re getting stops at the same time. But this is a team that ranks 75th in adjusted offensive efficiency. I can’t find any metrics that give us stats on all-time Final Four teams in this metric, but I’d be willing to bet that is near the worst offensive efficiency rating for a Final Four team. For the tournament, San Diego State has held teams to 16-of-94 (17.0%) from 3-point range and 27% all season. The only team that held their opponent to a worse 3-point percentage for the season was Tennessee, a team FAU just beat and shot 30% from three against. It feels like a statistical improbability that SDSU holds FAU to the 17% from deep that they have in the rest of their tournament games. To me, this just feels like a supremely balanced FAU squad is matched up against a more offensively challenged Tennessee. I think it will be a battle, but I like the Owls to advance to the national title game.
THE PICK: FAU +2.5
No. 4 UConn -5.5 vs. No. 5 Miami | 6:49 p.m. | CBS
I’m just not going to overthink this one, at all. I had UConn in my title game in my original bracket, albeit losing to Bama, but I’ve really loved this squad all year. They just wear teams down and they wear ’em down fast. They protect the ball, can beat you offensively a number of ways, and play team defense with passion and enthusiasm. It’s been a nice run for Miami but they’ve dodged some bullets and a first-round exit when they trailed by 8 to Drake, late. They did the same last week to Texas. But UConn doesn’t let teams back in. They extend, and then they extend some more. They have a killer mentality and I think they keep the Canes at bay for most of tomorrow. I’m going to have two plays in this one, and I’ll even toss out a guess at a final score. Huskies 86-72.
THE PICK: UConn -5.5 & Over 149.5
