Entering the 2025 draft cycle, most scouts and draft outlets considered Cooper Flagg the clear top prospect. Many scouts (myself included) consider Flagg a special prospect, capable of developing into an NBA superstar.
Some other prospects, notably Dylan Harper, have crept towards the conversation. But I’d argue that Flagg’s start to the season only adds confidence to his superstar projection. Let’s discuss three reasons Flagg is still the clear top prospect in the 2025 NBA Draft and one of the best prospects on the planet.
Flagg’s high usage is promising for on-ball creation potential
Detractors often cite Flagg’s poor efficiency; he’s posting a frigid 50.5% true shooting so far. Context here is critical, as Flagg’s age (he turns 18 on December 21st), height and offensive load all influence this number. He’s harbored an enormous 30.4% usage rate, tied with Dylan Harper for the second-highest of any high-major freshman this season (Jeremiah Fears ranks first).
The vast majority of high-usage college primaries are guards. Flagg represents a clear outlier here given his size at 6’9. He joins Michael Beasley, DeMarcus Cousins and Vernon Carey Jr as the only 6’9 or taller freshmen since 2008 with usage rates above 30%. Critically, Flagg is a far superior passing prospect to all three of those players.
He’s always passed the ball at a high level, flashing NBA-quality traits dating back to high school. That playmaking verve translated to the college level immediately, reflected in his passing numbers — 23.4% assist rate, 7.0 assists per 100 possessions and a 1.6 assist-to-turnover ratio.
His playmaking meshing with the immense usage helps us imagine a path for Flagg to command the ball eventually at the NBA level. Since 2008, the only other freshmen taller than 6’8 to post above 20% assist rate, 1.0 assist-to-turnover ratio and a 25% usage rate were Ben Simmons and Scottie Barnes. That combination of high offensive responsibility at a young age, passing volume and turnover avoidance is extremely valuable.
Flagg has shown the ability to create downhill advantages with his speed, size and explosion, even if his ball control and dribble counters still need improvement. That’s the case for almost all 17-year-old wings, though. Jon Scheyer has asked Flagg to carry his team’s offense against some of the best teams in college basketball and he’s answered the bell, all things considered.
His shooting projection is strong
Projecting shooting to the NBA level is one of the most challenging aspects of scouting. Many prospects, especially freshmen, have nothing close to a stable 3-point shooting sample. Cooper Flagg has made 24.4% of his threes so far, but that’s on just 41 attempts. If, for example, five of those misses went in, Flagg’s 3-point percentage would spike to 36.6%.
Adding his final high school and AAU season to Flagg’s college start paints a clearer picture of his shooting ability — 33.2% (83-250) on all 3-pointers with similar efficiency off the dribble and off the catch. That might not appear stellar, but most teenagers, especially ones as tall as Flagg, aren’t efficient shooters. Anthony Edwards, Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart, Buddy Hield, Donovan Mitchell and Tyrese Maxey all shot below 30% from beyond the arc as college freshmen.
Flagg’s shooting indicators, notably his free throw percentage and volume, are solid. He’s shooting 76.3% (45-59) from the line this year. Adding that to his high school and EYBL free-throw shooting, we arrive at 83.3% (299-359). He’s taking 7.1 3-point attempts per 100 possessions.
I’d love to see him increase that volume to 8.0 or 9.0 to feel even more confident in his shooting projection given the value of volume. His shot diversity, flashing off-dribble and off-movement shooting, add to Flagg’s encouraging shooting projection. Flagg developing into a high-level shooter would clear and widen his star paths.
He’s an elite defensive prospect
Mainstream scouting analysis has never valued defense as much as I feel they should. Measuring and evaluating defense can be challenging, especially as compared to offense, given the relative lack of defensive statistics. Flagg’s steal and block numbers, though, are stellar, posting a 5.1% block rate and a 3.1% steal rate to this point. The only other freshmen since 2008 to match those numbers were Zion Williamson, Nerlens Noel, Tari Eason and Andre Roberson.
cooper flagg’s 5.1% block rate and 3.1% steal rate to this point makes him one of five drafted freshmen since 2008 to meet those benchmarks
the ridiculous range, versatility and shot blocking have immediately translated to high level ball pic.twitter.com/xZN96mSwNH
— ben pfeifer (@bjpf_) December 18, 2024
Flagg covers enormous areas of ground as a weak-side shot blocker and jumps passing lanes for easy transition chances. His on-ball defense has been stellar, sliding and mirroring even smaller players with his lateral quickness and size. He still profiles as the kind of defensive prospect who can challenge for Defensive Player of the Year Trophies in due time.
That’s an incredibly valuable commodity, something NBA teams can undervalue at times. Even without discussing his offensive potential, Flagg’s defense raises his floor to a ridiculously high baseline.
