Jeff vs. Gemini – AI: Mailbag answers to your questions

As usual, you folks came through with some great questions in response to my open mailbag post.

This time I thought I’d do something a little different with the answers. I decided to plug your questions into Gemini (Google’s version of an AI chat/search assistant). Then I would share my own answers. You can then compare and contrast the different answers. Think of it as a sports blog Turing Test.

I’ll share my overall thoughts on the experiment at the bottom. But let’s get to the questions!

IHaveSpoken: What is the main factor for more losses between last year and this year? and does this equate to a change in philosophy, luck, focus, or the proverbial target on the players’ back?

Gemini answer:

It’s tough to pinpoint one main factor for any increase in losses between seasons, as basketball is a complex game with many variables. However, here’s a breakdown of some potential contributing factors for the Celtics in 2024-25, and how they relate to your categories:

1. Increased Competition:

Proverbial Target on Their Backs: Absolutely. After a successful previous season, the Celtics were a marked team. Opponents came into games with extra motivation, having scouted their strategies and looking to exploit any weaknesses. This is a natural consequence of success in the NBA.

2. Changes in Team Dynamics:

Possible Shift in Philosophy: While it’s hard to say definitively without being in the locker room, subtle changes in team philosophy can impact results. Did the team lean too heavily on offense? Was there a slight drop in defensive intensity? These things can be hard to detect from the outside but can make a difference.

Focus: This is related to the “target” point. Did the team maintain the same level of focus and hunger after a successful season? Complacency can creep in, even unconsciously.

3. Luck and Circumstances:

Luck: Injuries, close game losses that could have gone either way, even a few hot shooting nights by opponents – these elements of luck can play a role in a team’s win-loss record.

Scheduling: The NBA schedule is grueling, and some teams have tougher stretches than others. A particularly difficult run of games could lead to more losses.

4. Specific Areas to Investigate:

To get a more concrete answer, one would need to delve into specific stats:

Defensive Efficiency: Did the Celtics’ defensive rating slip compared to the previous year?

Clutch Performance: How did they fare in close games?

Opponent 3-Point Shooting: Did opponents shoot a higher percentage from three-point range against them?

In Conclusion:

It’s likely a combination of all these factors that contributed to any increase in losses. The Celtics were a talented team, but the NBA is a league where even small dips in performance or increased intensity from opponents can affect results.

Jeff’s answer: I think it boils down to human nature. They put everything they had into winning the title last year. They achieved that goal and checked that box. The underlying drive to achieve something again is just less than it would be to achieve it for the first time. Subconsciously they probably don’t want to keep sprinting because the regular season is a marathon. Having to be “on” every night in an 82 game season has to be exhausting. They can say what they will about giving it their all for the fans and all that, but again, human nature is prone to letting up after achieving the ultimate goal.

Of course a) they are not far off their pace from last year, b) have looked great as of late, and c) they have an easy strength of schedule in the final 3rd of the season. So there’s still plenty of time to practice good habits and flip the proverbial switch for the long playoff run.

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ezwind: If we cut the Cavs lead down to a couple of games with a week or so left in the season, do we go all out in an effort to catch them or do we rest our regulars for the playoffs?

Gemini answer:

This is a great strategic question, and the answer depends on a few factors! Here’s a breakdown of the considerations for the Celtics in that situation:

Arguments for Going All Out:

Momentum: Catching the Cavs and potentially securing the top seed in the conference would provide a huge momentum boost heading into the playoffs.

Home-Court Advantage: The top seed usually guarantees home-court advantage throughout the playoffs, which is a significant benefit.

Psychological Edge: Overcoming a deficit and overtaking the Cavs could give the Celtics a psychological edge over their rivals.

Arguments for Resting Regulars:

Injury Prevention: The playoffs are the most important part of the season. Resting key players reduces the risk of injury, ensuring they’re healthy for the postseason.

Fatigue Management: The NBA season is long and grueling. Resting players allows them to recover and be fresh for the playoffs.

Strategic Positioning: Sometimes, a slightly lower seed might actually be preferable if it means avoiding a particularly tough matchup in the first round.

Decision-Making Factors:

Celtics’ Health: If key players are dealing with nagging injuries or fatigue, resting them is the priority.

Cavs’ Situation: If the Cavs are also resting players or appear to be slumping, the Celtics might see an opportunity to overtake them without overexerting themselves.

Playoff Matchups: The Celtics’ coaching staff will analyze potential playoff matchups and consider whether securing the top seed is worth the extra effort.

Team Confidence: If the Celtics are confident in their ability to perform well regardless of their seeding, they might prioritize rest.

Possible Approach:

Gradual Reduction: The Celtics could gradually reduce the minutes of their key players over the final week, balancing the need for rest with the desire to maintain momentum.

Targeted Rest: They might choose specific games to rest certain players, depending on the opponent and the importance of the game.

Situational Awareness: The coaching staff will closely monitor the Cavs’ results and adjust their strategy accordingly.

Ultimately, the decision will be a careful balancing act between maximizing their chances of catching the Cavs and ensuring the team is in peak condition for the playoffs.

Jeff’s answer: I’m a big believer in developing winning habits during the regular season. The season is a chance to put in those reps that develop muscle memory and improve read-and-react decision making. For that reason, I would largely ignore the standings until the last half month of the year. Give veterans situational rest throughout the year, but go all out to win the games with the players you have available. In the last few weeks if the race is close enough, keep pushing for that top seed. If not, get creative with giving some deep rotation guys some spot minutes (just in case they are needed in the playoffs) and experiment with different rotations, defenses, and scenarios.

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TOFTT and ezwind: What is the prognosis for Jrue’s shoulder? / How worried should we be about Jrue’s shoulder issue?

Gemini answer:

Unfortunately, I cannot give you a definite prognosis for Jrue Holiday’s shoulder.

Here’s what I can tell you based on recent information:

He has been dealing with a right shoulder impingement. This is an injury that affects the rotator cuff and can cause pain and limit movement.

He has missed some games recently. This indicates that the injury is significant enough to keep him off the court.

The Celtics are being cautious. They are likely prioritizing his long-term health and not rushing him back.

How worried should you be?

It’s natural to be concerned when a key player like Jrue Holiday is dealing with an injury. However, here are some things to keep in mind:

Shoulder impingements can often be managed with rest and treatment. Many players are able to return to play and continue to perform at a high level.

The Celtics have a deep roster. They have other talented players who can step up in Holiday’s absence.

The most important thing is for Holiday to be healthy for the playoffs. The Celtics will likely take a long-term view with his injury and make sure he’s ready for the postseason.

What to watch for:

Updates from the team: Keep an eye on the Celtics’ official website and social media channels for updates on Holiday’s condition.

His return to play: When Holiday is able to return to the court, it will be a positive sign.

His performance: Once he’s back, monitor his performance to see if the injury is affecting him.

Overall, it’s reasonable to be somewhat concerned about Holiday’s shoulder issue, but it’s not time to panic. The Celtics are likely taking the necessary precautions to ensure he’s healthy for the most important part of the season.

Jeff’s answer: Like the computer, I don’t have any inside info on Jrue’s shoulder. In general, however, it feels like it is just something they are being cautious about, giving him an extended period of rest. The team will likely need him to be healthy and on his A game for the playoffs, so giving him some time off seems wise.

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AlohaCeltic: How would you rank the current set of rotation players in terms of ouch factor if they were to suddenly become unavailable for the playoffs.

Gemini answer:

This is a tough question, as every player brings something unique to the Celtics. ”Ouch factor” considers not just talent, but also positional scarcity and how their absence would impact the team’s overall strategy. Here’s my ranking from highest “ouch factor” (most detrimental loss) to lowest (least detrimental, though still impactful):

Tier 1: Massive Ouch – Potential Title Contender Crippling

Jayson Tatum: Losing Tatum is an absolute worst-case scenario. He’s the engine of the offense, a consistent scorer, and draws double teams, creating opportunities for others. The Celtics’ championship hopes diminish drastically without him.

Jaylen Brown: Brown is a near-All-Star level player and a vital second scoring option. His athleticism, scoring ability, and two-way play are irreplaceable. Losing him significantly reduces the Celtics’ offensive firepower and defensive versatility.

Tier 2: Major Ouch – Significant Impact, Adjustments Required

Jrue Holiday: Holiday’s impact goes beyond scoring. His defense, playmaking, and experience are crucial. While the Celtics have other guards, none replicate his two-way impact. His absence would force significant adjustments to both the offensive and defensive schemes.

Kristaps Porzingis: Porzingis brings a unique skill set with his size, shooting, and rim protection. While Al Horford can fill some of that role, Porzingis’s offensive versatility and ability to stretch the floor are difficult to replace.

Tier 3: Significant Ouch – Noticeable Loss, But Team Can Adapt

Al Horford: Horford’s veteran presence, basketball IQ, and ability to space the floor are valuable. He’s a key cog in the Celtics’ system. However, the team has shown they can play smaller or rely more on Robert Williams III.

Robert Williams III: “Time Lord” brings elite athleticism and rim protection. His rebounding and defensive presence are a big plus. However, his availability has been inconsistent, and the Celtics have learned to play without him at times.

Tier 4: Moderate Ouch – Depth Tested, Opportunity for Others

Grant Williams: Williams is a solid role player who brings toughness, defense, and three-point shooting. While his absence would be felt, the Celtics have other wings who can step up.

Payton Pritchard: Pritchard provides energy, shooting, and playmaking off the bench. He’s a valuable backup guard, but his role is somewhat replaceable.

Tier 5: Minor Ouch – Depth Pieces, Next Man Up Mentality

Sam Hauser: Hauser is a sharpshooter who provides valuable floor spacing. While his shooting is an asset, the Celtics have other offensive options.

Oshae Brissett: Brissett provides energy and rebounding off the bench. His role is important for depth, but he’s not a core rotation player.

Important Note: This ranking is subjective and can change based on injuries, matchups, and team performance. The specific role each player fills and the overall health of the team also play a significant role. For example, if both Tatum and Brown were out, even the loss of a role player would be a bigger “ouch.”

See, now I feel better about keeping my job. Note that I was specific in my original prompt about asking questions about the 2024-25 season.

Jeff’s answer:

Here’s my list:

Tier 1: Tatum, Brown – I don’t think we win the title if either one misses significant playoff time

Tier 2: Derrick White, Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis – each of these guys could be the difference between winning and losing a series, but we managed to win a title with very limited Porzingis minutes last year and the same could happen this year with any of these three (though I would put them in this order)

Tier 3: Payton Pritchard, Al Horford, Sam Hauser, Luke Kornet – great role players, very valuable, not ultimately irreplaceable

Everyone else is there for injury insurance and garbage time during the playoffs.

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Charlie-two-protons: Which fringe rotation guy do you trust with 6-10 minutes/game in a playoff series?

Gemini answer:

This is a good question, as playoff rotations tend to tighten up, and trusting a “fringe” player becomes crucial. Given the Celtics’ current roster, the player I’d trust most with 6-10 minutes in a playoff series is Payton Pritchard.

Here’s why:

Playoff Experience: Pritchard has seen playoff minutes and hasn’t been overwhelmed by the intensity. This is a big factor. You want someone who’s been there, done that, and won’t shrink under the pressure.

Shooting: Pritchard’s ability to knock down three-pointers is a valuable asset, especially when the game slows down in the playoffs. He can space the floor and provide instant offense.

Ball-Handling: He can handle the ball and run the offense for short stretches, giving the starters a breather. He’s not just a spot-up shooter.

Confidence: Pritchard plays with confidence, which is essential in the playoffs. He’s not afraid to take big shots.

Situational Use: His minutes would be very matchup-dependent. He’s best suited against teams where his shooting and ball-handling are more valuable than his defensive limitations might be exploited.

While other players like Grant Williams or Sam Hauser might get some run, Pritchard’s combination of playoff experience, shooting, and ability to run the offense makes him the most trustworthy option in that 6-10 minute range, if the matchup is right. The coaching staff will definitely consider matchups when making these decisions.

Jeff’s answer: I’ll define “fringe” players as guys that didn’t fit into the top 3 tiers in the question above. So for that I would probably turn to Neemias Queta for spot minutes at center. He provides a different skillset look from the other bigs and has had some success filling in for rotation bigs. I also wouldn’t rule out Torrey Craig getting spot minutes when the team needs another 3-and-D option on the wing.

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Photo by Brian Babineau/NBAE via Getty Images

allston1985: What is the real, deep, and true reason that Luke does not shoot threes anymore?

Gemini answer:

While there are various theories circulating, the most probable reason Luke Kornet doesn’t shoot threes anymore boils down to a strategic shift in his role and a focus on maximizing his strengths in other areas.

Here’s a breakdown of the factors at play:

Role Optimization: Kornet’s role with the Celtics has evolved. He’s now valued more for his interior presence, pick-and-roll ability, screening, and offensive rebounding. These skills are more valuable to the team’s overall strategy than him occasionally shooting threes.

Team Needs: The Celtics already have numerous proficient three-point shooters. Kornet’s skillset is better utilized in the paint, where he can create opportunities for others and contribute in ways that other players can’t replicate as effectively.

Efficiency and Impact: While Kornet has shown he can knock down threes, his overall impact on the game is likely higher when he focuses on his strengths inside. Offensive rebounds, setting screens, and facilitating the offense from the short roll are all valuable contributions that might be diminished if he was primarily focused on perimeter shooting.

Strategic Decision: It’s likely a conscious decision by the coaching staff to utilize Kornet in a way that best suits the team’s needs and his individual skillset. This might involve limiting his three-point attempts to specific situations or eliminating them altogether to maximize his effectiveness in other areas.

In essence, it’s not that Kornet can’t shoot threes, but rather that his role and the team’s needs dictate a different approach. He’s become a valuable role player by focusing on what he does best, and that currently involves operating primarily in the paint.

Jeff’s answer: The real, deep, and true reason he doesn’t shoot 3’s anymore is money. He was out of the league, focused on what made him the most valuable to an NBA team, and found his way back to the NBA. He very well could get a nice, long-term contract this offseason and he’s not going to mess that up by improvising.

Let me make this analogy. A little over 20 years ago I started a sports website where we talked about all types of sports topics. We soon discovered that we were competing with ESPN and would never win that war. So I focused on what I know the best and carved out a humble space to thrive within my role. I may have some thoughts and feelings about the Red Sox, NFL mock drafts, and the Swimming 100m freestyle relay, but I’m going to keep those to myself for the moment.

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ezwind: How much of an impact will it have if Sam Cassell leaves before the end of the season to take the FSU job?

Gemini answer:

It’s definitely something the Celtics would need to adjust to, but I wouldn’t say it would be a crippling blow to their championship hopes. Here’s a breakdown of the potential impact:

Positive Impacts:

Opportunity for Others: Cassell’s departure would open up opportunities for other assistant coaches on the staff to take on more responsibility and gain valuable experience. This could be a chance for someone to step up and prove themselves.

Fresh Perspective: Sometimes, a change in coaching personnel can bring a fresh perspective and new ideas to the team. This could be beneficial in the long run.

Negative Impacts:

Loss of Experience: Cassell is a highly experienced coach with a deep understanding of the game.1 His knowledge and insights would be missed.

Player Development: Cassell has played a key role in the development of several Celtics players, particularly the younger guards like Payton Pritchard. His departure could slow down their progress.

Chemistry: Any change in coaching staff can disrupt team chemistry, at least in the short term. It would take time for the team to adjust to a new dynamic.

Playoff Adjustments: Cassell is valuable during the playoffs for in-game adjustments, scouting reports, and general strategic input. This is where his absence might be most felt.

Overall:

Manageable Loss: While Cassell’s departure would be a loss, the Celtics have a strong coaching staff and a talented roster. They should be able to adapt and overcome his absence.

Timing Matters: The timing of Cassell’s departure would be important. If he leaves during the season, it would give the Celtics time to adjust. If it happens right before the playoffs, it could be more disruptive.

In Conclusion:

It’s never ideal to lose a valuable coach, but the Celtics have shown resilience and adaptability in the past. While there might be some short-term challenges, they have the foundation in place to continue their pursuit of a championship.

Jeff’s answer: The Celtics clearly benefitted from adding Sam Cassell and Charles Lee last season. They gave Coach Mazzulla experienced opinions and provided him with additional respected voices for the players to listen to. Lee is already gone and losing Sam would hurt, especially mid-season (chemistry is a weird thing and you hate to mess with it in-flight). That said, this team knows what it is doing and Joe has established himself with championship credibility and I wouldn’t see the team missing too many beats going forward.

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This was getting very long so I had to cut it short there. Perhaps we can get to the offseason questions later in the year or closer to the summer.

Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

Thoughts on this experiment: Gemini does a better job of positive reinforcement than I do. Perhaps I should lead more answers with “Hey, great question!” The bot also does a pretty decent job giving thorough, Wikipedia type information scraped from the internet.

Of course Gemini did a poor job of keeping up with who is still on the Celtics roster. It didn’t really have a good feel for what the term “fringe player” means in this context. Also, as much as it tried to sound like a helpful human assistant, it still comes across somewhat robotic and static.

I won’t pretend that my answers are in any way brilliant or offer much more wisdom than the average reader of this site, but I try to give my own perspectives along with my own writing style. Results may vary, but that’s part of the fun with being a human.

Lots can be said about AI and I don’t have the time or expertise to cover it all. In the near-term I think it will be great for handling repeatable tasks. As long as you provide some level of oversight and human guidance. For example, I would be open to AI doing research on the stock market, perhaps identifying trends and alerts. I just wouldn’t give it the green light to buy and trade stocks for me.

Specifically when it comes to creative jobs like journalism (insert your own jokes about blogging), I don’t see the computers taking my place any time soon.

But those are just my thoughts. I would welcome your thoughts in the comments below.