The Celtics enter Game 5 of this best of 7 series with a 3-1 lead after winning Games 3 and 4 in Miami. The Celtics won Game 1 119-94 putting up a franchise record 22 3 pointers. It looked like the Celtics would dominate the series. Then came Game 2. The Heat caught fire from 3 and set their own franchise record with 23 threes and they shot 53.5% from beyond the arc on the way to a 111-101 victory.
When the series shifted to Miami for Game 3, the Celtics once again found their defense. The Celtics jumped out to a big lead in the first quarter. Unlike Games 1 and 2, neither team was highly dependent on threes. The Celtics attempted 37 and hit just 29.7% of them. The Heat attempted just 28 threes and hit 32.1% of them. With 3’s not falling, the Celtics found other ways to score and played tough defense to win 104-84.
The Celtics won Game 4 102-88.The Celtics played the second half without Kristaps Porzingis who left in the 2nd quarter with a calf injury. Tatum and Brown had rather quiet nights and Pritchard and Hauser combined to go 0-6. But, Derrick White carried the team with a season high 38 points and once again the Celtics played very good defense to hold the Heat to 88 points.
As the Celtics go into Game 5, their mindset has to be to close out the series as soon as possible. With Porzingis out and Tatum struggling with another ankle injury, they could really use a few days off at this point of the post season as the Magic and Cavaliers fight for the opportunity to take on the Celtics in Round 2.
You would think that a team coming home, where they lost just 4 games in the entire regular season, would give fans a reason to be confident. However, their post season record does anything but give confidence. The Heat have won 5 of their last 7 playoff games at the TD Garden. The Celtics lost Game 2 at the Garden before winning 2 games in Miami, where they have won 7 straight playoff games.
Only 13 teams in NBA history have come back to win the series after being down 1 game to 3 in a best of 7 series. The Celtics came a Jayson Tatum ankle sprain from being the first team to come back from an 0-3 deficit against this Heat team in last year’s Eastern Conference Finals. With injuries to Porzingis and Tatum, the Celtics can’t really afford to allow the Heat even one more game. They need to close this series out in Game 5. The team that is up 3-1 in a best of 7 series wins the series 95.6% of the time, so may as well get it over with now.
Kristaps Porzingis is the only one on the Celtics injury report due to a right soleus strain. This is the same injury that has kept Giannis Antetokounmpo out of the Bucks/Pacers series. Even though Jayson Tatum injured his ankle in Game 4, he is not on the injury list at this time. I’m going to guess that Horford gets the start in Porzingis’ place but I could be wrong.
Former Celtic Terry Rozier will miss his 11th straight game with a neck strain. Jimmy Butler remains out with the MCL sprain that he suffered in the play in game against the 76ers. Josh Richardson remains out after having shoulder surgery. Jaime Jaquez, Jr has been added to the injury list with a hip flexor strain that he suffered in Game 4. I took a guess that Highsmith will start in place of Jaquez.
Probable Celtics Starters
PG: Jrue Holiday
SG: Derrick White
SF: Jaylen Brown
PF: Jayson Tatum
C: Al Horford
Celtics Reserves
Oshae Brissett
Sam Hauser
Svi Mykhailiuk
Payton Pritchard
Jordan Walsh
Jaden Springer
Xavier Tillman
Neemias Queta
Luke Kornet
2 Way Players
JD Davison
Drew Peterson
Injuries/Out
Kristaps Porzingis (calf) out
Head Coach
Joe Mazzulla
Probable Heat Starters
PG: Tyler Herro
SG: Caleb Martin
SF: Haywood Highsmith
PF: Nikola Jovic
C: Bam Adebayo
Heat Reserves
Thomas Bryant
Kevin Love
Patty Mills
Duncan Robinson
Orlando Robinson
Delon Wright
Out/Injuries
Jimmy Butler (MCL) out
Josh Richardson (shoulder) out
Terry Rozier III (neck) out
Jaime Jaquez, Jr (hip) out
Two Way Players
Jamal Cain
Cole Swider
Alondes Williams
Head Coach
Erik Spoelstra
Key Matchups
Al Horford vs Bam Adebayo
Adebayo has played well in all 4 games. Over the first 4 games, Adebayo is averaging 22.5 points, 10.5 rebounds, and 3.3 assists. He is shooting 53.5% from the field and 14.3% from beyond the arc. He is coming off a game where he pulled down 17 rebounds. I’m just guessing that Horford will get the start at center but Mozzulla may go with Kornet, Tillman or Queta to start.
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Jrue Holiday
Photo by Alex Goodlett/Getty Images
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Tyler Herro
Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images
Jrue Holiday vs Tyler Herro
Herro has been up and down in this series. in Game 2, he led the Heat with 24 points, 5 rebounds, 14 assists and 1 steal while shooting 53.8% from the field and 54.4% from beyond the arc. But the Celtics have been defending him well in the other 3 games. Over the 4 games, he is averaging 17.3 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 6 assists while shooting 40.7% from the field and 40% from beyond the arc. Holiday has been quiet offensively in this series, but has been a force on the defensive end.
Honorable Mention
Derrick White vs Caleb Martin
In last year’s Eastern Conference Finals Game 7, Martin became a flame thrower and put the Celtics away, shooting 69% from the field and 67% from beyond the arc. In Game 2 Martin finished with 21 points, shooting 58.3% from the field and 83.3% from beyond the arc but he came back to earth in Games 3 and 4. Over the 4 games, he is averaging 12 points, 3.5 rebounds and 1.5 assists while shooting 42.2% from the field and 50% from beyond the arc. The Celtics need to keep him off the 3 point line in this game. Another Derrick White flame thrower game would be nice.
Keys to the Game
Defense – Defense remains the biggest key to winning every single game. In Game 2, the Celtics defense was pretty much non-existent. The Celtics’ perimeter defense was lazy and cost them the game. The Celtics won Games 3 and 4 with their defense. The Celtics must commit to once again playing tough, lock down defense and not allow the Heat to get comfortable in their offense.
Rebound – Along with defense, rebounding is always a key to winning. As Pat Riley once said “No rebounds, no rings.” In Game 1, the Celtics out-rebounded the Heat 44-34 and 10-5 on offensive rebounds and they won the game. In Game 2, the Heat out-rebounded the Celtics 40-39 and the Celtics lost. In Games 3 and 4, the Celtics once again out-rebounded the Heat and they won both games. It takes effort and hustle to get rebounds and the Celtics need to give more effort and hustle to grab rebounds if they want to win this game.
Next Man Up – With Porzingis out and Tatum possibly struggling with the ankle sprain, the Celtics will need every player to step up their game and contribute on both ends of the court. They need the starters to come out strong and get off to a good start once again. The reserves need to come in and keep up the energy and hit their shots and most importantly, every player must play lock down defense and also crash the boards.
Play Hard for 48 Minutes – The difference in the Celtics wins and losses in this series so far has been the amount of effort they give on both ends of the court. The Celtics must be more aggressive in going for loose balls, rebounds, in going to the basket and on defense. They have to commit to giving full effort from the opening tip until the final buzzer. Hopefully they learned their lesson in Game 2 and won’t slack off on effort for even a minute in this game. They need to take charge of the game from the opening tip until the final buzzer. The Celtics must be the tougher team both physically and mentally.
X-Factors
Home Game – Home court hasn’t meant much for the Celtics in these playoffs. The Celtics can’t assume that they will win because they are at home because the Heat have already taken one games in Boston when the Celtics played like they expected to win without giving effort. Often young players and role players struggle more on the road, especially when the crowd is into the game and loud and when the pressure is on. The Garden needs to be loud and cheer the Celtics to a win in this one.
Coaching – Erik Spoelstra is thought by many to be the best coach in the league. He has coached 2 championship teams, has taken his teams to 6 finals, and his teams have won 6 Eastern Conference Championships. Spoelstra has 112 playoff wins while Mazzulla has 14. In spite of the difference in coaching experience, so far, Joe Mazzulla has held his own in this series, adjusting and keeping the Celtics focused. He needs to be ready for yet more adjustments from Spoelstra and also to adjust his own game plan to counter.
Closeout Game – Close out games are the hardest games to win because the opponent is desperate with their backs against the wall and tend to play harder for that reason. It is human nature to tend to let up, knowing that you have more chances to close out the series. The Celtics have to play like this is their Game 7 and play like they are the ones with their backs against the wall. They need to fight human nature and be the team that plays the hardest.
Officiating -Officiating is always an x-factor in every game. Every crew officiates differently. Some call it tight, others let them play. The Celtics need to adjust to how the refs are calling the game and not allow bad calls or no calls to take away their focus from playing the game. The more aggressive team will usually get the benefit of the calls and so the Celtics need to be the more aggressive team.
Official Report
Crew Chief – Marc Davis
David has a home win/loss record of 37-30 as crew chief this season. The Celtics are 6-4 in their last 10 games with Davis, including 1 win and 1 loss against Miami. He calls 51% of fouls against the road team and 49% against the home team. In a poll of NBA players, Davis was voted the third worst referee in the league behind Scott Foster and Lauren Holtkamp. Comments from players say he is arrogant and will sometime instigate things. This is not a good game to complain about the refs.
Referee – Ben Taylor
Taylor has a 27-20 home win/loss record as part of the crew. The Celtics are 6-4 in their last 10 games with Taylor as a ref and the Heat are 3-7 in their last 10. He calls 51% of fouls on the road team and 49% against the home team. Last season, after several complaints from players about Taylor’s officiating, he was removed from crew chief position and was used only as crew for the rest of the season.
Umpire – Brian Forte
Forte has a home won/loss record of 36-30 as part of the crew this season. Boston is 8-2 in their last 10 games with Forte while Miami is 5-5 in their last 10 games. He calls 51% of fouls on the road team and 49% against the home team. Forte is the son of former NBA ref Joe Forte.
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