The All-Star break is a great reflection point. It’s far enough into the year to make meaningful deductions about the team, while also providing a window of opportunity to make adjustments before the playoffs.
I wanted to take a moment to review some of the numbers behind the first half of the season, with some that may be flying under the radar.
Payton Pritchard’s shotmaking
It’s no secret that the 5th year guard has taken a leap, but Pritchard’s scoring is even more impressive that it may seem.
This season, Payton is averaging 129.1 points per 100 shot attempts, putting him in the 100th percentile among guards.
With two versatile combo guards ahead of him in the rotation, Payton has made himself uniquely valuable. His scoring output is absurd, and he frequently takes over pockets of the game. Even with Pritchard’s microwave scoring ability, he’s struck a great balance between on- and off-ball work.
81% of Payton’s 3PM are assisted, ranking him in the 26th percentile. By contrast, 24% of his rim makes and just 14% of mid-range field goals are assisted, placing him in the 93rd and 95th percentiles, respectively. Despite this self-creation, Payton is shooting 63.7% on 2-pointers—impressive, considering no other guard is above 60%.
He had a couple of off-nights before the break, but the spark of energy he provides can’t be questioned. Boston is at their best when Pritchard is empowered, and it’s clear his green light wont turn red.
Sam Hauser marksmanship
If you told me after the rough start that Sam Hauser’s 3PT% would climb 5% before the break… I would’ve believed you right away. Water always finds its level with Sam, and there’s never a reasonable time to panic when he hits a cold stretch.
In the first 15 games of the season, Hauser shot 34.9% from distance. In the last 15 games, he’s knocked down 46.6% of his attempts. This brought him back to 40% from 3 on the year, marking the fourth time in as many seasons that he’s sustained this marksmanship.
The last time Hauser finished a season under 40%, in any league, he was a high school sophomore that shot 2 for 6 on the season. That jumped to 52% on 142 attempts in his junior year.
Hauser rebounded from the early season back injury, and increasingly resembles one of the NBA’s foremost sharpshooters. Pritchard’s aforementioned scoring production has kept the bench in good shape, but when those two are clicking at the same time Boston’s offense is nearly untouchable.
Derrick White’s scouting report
While Hauser has successfully fought off the down year, Derrick White is just a touch below his standards from 3PT range. He’s converting 37.8% of his 3’s, compared to 39.6% last year, but he’s actually seen a bump in volume, up two whole attempts.
It was a tough January for the team, and a shooting slump for Derrick played a part in that. His confidence didn’t go anywhere, but you could see the discomfort as the misses piled up. White has been better in February, and brought some momentum into the break.
Even through the ups and downs, White has had success in a few specific areas on the perimeter. A majority of Derrick’s threes come from above the break, where he’s shooting 36.9% on 366 attempts. Not bad by any means, but when you zoom in a bit, an interesting trend is revealed.
His shot chart looks like alChristmas, but it’s a meaningful difference. Here are the splits:
Center- 13/57 (22.8%)
Right wing- 48/156 (30.8%)
Left wing- 74/153 (48.4%)
The Celtics have been strategic about the looks they’re generating for White. He’s had great success running empty and angled ball screen actions from the left wing.
There’s no doubt bad shooting luck is involved here, considering the difference wasn’t nearly this drastic in the past. But, it makes sense for Boston to keep going to what works, and they’ve found a lot of value in these actions.
He’s also been lights out from the corners, drilling 45.3% of his 3’s, so it’d be beneficial to find more opportunities for him to space from both sides. Either way, it might be good to stay away from the top of the key for a bit!
Kristaps Porzingis foul drawing
Porzingis is a man of many talents, and his versatility at 7’3 is quite rare. He may not be a bruiser on the block, but his ability to shoot over switches makes him a mismatch nightmare in his own right. He spaces the floor at a high level, and saves Boston points with rim protection.
Kristaps also does something else unusually well: getting fouled. He’s somewhere around middle of the pack in terms of drawing shooting fouls, but it’s the non-shooting fouls where he excels.
Porzingis draws non-shooting fouls on 4.1% of team plays, putting him in the 100th percentile among all players.
Some would categorize this as “flopping,” but he’s a Celtic, so that’s not a conversation I have to indulge in. Instead, we can comfortably appreciate a master at his craft.
He is hilariously good at using a defenders aggression against them. Don’t get me wrong, he absolutely embellishes contact, but players don’t argue the calls very much because they are trying to knock him around a bit.
Even if it doesn’t result in free points, it pushes the opponent closer to the foul limit. In the playoffs, a foul on the right player, at the right time is enough to swing a game.
Jaylen Brown dunk score
Why not end on a fun note. The NBA introduced a new metric this season to help capture how great each dunk is. Dunk Score is made up of several different measurements like vertical leap, hangtime and ball speed through the rim.
For reference, there have been 20 dunks this season to receive a score of 100 or higher. Jaylen Brown appears twice on that list, with his best coming in at #4.
Brown is actually dunking less frequently this season with dunks making up 4.8% of his FGA, compared to 7.5% last year. He’s maybe less bold, and more selective about when it’s time to rise up, but he’s still willing to add a body to his collection.
He’s got a long list of posters in his career, so it would be interesting to see where some of his greatest hits would score.
