The Xavier Musketeer mascot attempts to scare the Cincinnati Bearcats mascot during Skyline Chili’s Crosstown Shootout Party on Thursday, Dec. 7, 2023, at Skyline Chili in Downtown Cincinnati. The Crosstown Shootout, an iconic yearly mens basketball game in its 93rd year between the Cincinnati Bearcats and Xavier Musketeers, will be held on Saturday, Dec. 9, 2023, at the Cintas Center.
The generally accepted term “bracketology” has its origins from a Philadelphia Inquirer article nearly 28 years ago describing a guy named Joe Lunardi as a “bracketologist”. Lunardi was the editor and owner of the Blue Ribbon College Basketball yearbook who began predicting the NCAA selection committee’s picks the year before.
It evolved into a website Bracketology.com, which evolved into an ESPN page, which evolved into the guy actually teaching a course in the subject at St. Joseph’s University, where he’s long been their color commentator for Hawks basketball games.
Where do Cincinnati Bearcats, Xavier Musketeers fit into 2024 bracketology?
By all recent indicators going into February, both have work to do. Cincinnati dropped to 14-7 losing a highly winnable game at West Virginia Wednesday night. Back at Cintas Center, Xavier inched above .500 at 11-10 with a win over St. John’s. Going into Saturday’s games, by Lunardi’s ESPN predictions, both teams are on the outside looking to get into “The Dance”.
Cincinnati Bearcats head coach Wes Miller talks with the team during a timeout in the overtime period of a college basketball game between the TCU Horned Frogs and the Cincinnati Bearcats, Tuesday, Jan. 16, 2024, at Fifth Third Arena in Cincinnati. The Cincinnati Bearcats won, 81-77.
Cincinnati Bearcats: Where they stand
In theory, if you follow the NCAA NET or KenPom.com ratings, the Bearcats are at No. 34 which should seem comfortable when you factor in the NCAA tournament consists of 68 teams. But, 32 of those teams come by way of automatic bids. The easiest way to make the tournament is to win your conference tournament. UC will have that opportunity March 12-16 at Kansas City’s T-Mobile Arena.
However, so will the rest of the league.
And, so likely will several teams many didn’t count on making the NCAA Tournament by unexpectedly winning their conference tournaments. This includes many teams with computer ratings inferior to the Bearcats, which could then place them on the proverbial bubble. Lunardi’s last prognostication has the Bearcats among the first four out of the tourney.
On the other hand, Lunardi has nine Big 12 teams getting bids. Based on pre-Saturday numbers, UC would be the ninth-best team in the Big 12 in the NCAA NET behind No. 1 Houston, No. 9 BYU, No. 13 Iowa State, No. 15 Kansas, No. 16 Baylor, No. 21 Oklahoma, No. 22 TCU and No. 27 Texas Tech, but ahead of No. 35 Texas.
Then again, the Bearcats lost a winnable game vs. then-AP No. 25 Texas and Lunardi and Jerry Palm of CBS each have nine Big 12 teams in, but with the Longhorns among the last four in ahead of the Bearcats.
Prior to Saturday, USA Today’s calculations give the Big 12 a total of 10 bids with UC in as a No. 10 seed.
UC’s quadrant 1 wins
Before Saturday’s game at No. 15 Texas Tech, UC was 2-4 on the road, 0-1 at a neutral site (Dayton loss) and 12-2 at Fifth Third Arena. They are 2-5 in the Quadrant 1 category, 1-1 in Quadrant 2, 3-1 in Quadrant 3 and 8-0 in Quadrant 4.
Quadrant 1 wins are desirable to the selection committee, Quadrant 3-4 losses are not. An explainer of what constitutes each quadrant:
Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353
The Bearcats have lost five Big 12 games by a total of 17 points (3.4 per game). But horseshoes it’s not (close doesn’t count) and their Quadrant 1 record is 2-5 with wins over then-No. 12 BYU and then-No. 19 TCU. The regrettable loss at West Virginia becomes a Quadrant 3 loss.
Depending how the rest of the league fares, UC could have seven more Quadrant 1 win opportunities among their final 10 regular season games, then whatever goes down in the Big 12 tournament.
Cincinnati Bearcats guard Dan Skillings Jr. (0) reacts to hitting a 3-point basket over UCF Knights forward Marchelus Avery (13) to put Cincinnati Bearcats up by 5 points with under 3 minutes to play in the second half of the NCAA basketball game between Cincinnati Bearcats and UCF Knights at Fifth Third Arena in Cincinnati on Saturday, Jan. 27, 2024.
UC’s NCAA Tournament path
Much like every Big 12 game thus far, it will be tedious. The Bearcats beat BYU and UCF by 11 points, but every game has been nip-and-tuck. Merely holding serve at home, which hasn’t been a given, would add five more wins but the Bearcats dropped winnable home games against then-No. 25 Texas and then-No. 15 Oklahoma. It would behoove the Bearcats to go at least .500 in the next 10 games, putting them at 19 wins before the Big 12 tournament. Of the remaining contests, only UCF (74), Oklahoma State (126), Kansas State (72) and West Virginia (132) have NCAA NET ratings lower than the Bearcats.
Xavier Musketeers guard Desmond Claude (1) shoots a free throw in the second half of a college basketball game between the St. John’s Red Storm and the Xavier Musketeers, Wednesday, Jan. 31, 2024, at Cintas Center in Cincinnati. The Xavier Musketeers won, 88-77.
Xavier Musketeers: Where they stand
Xavier is back in the top 40 in the KenPom ratings after Wednesday’s win over St. John’s, sliding into the No. 39 spot with the No. 52 overall offense and No. 44 defense.
Simply put, Xavier has work to do if it wants to build off last season’s run to the Sweet 16. The Musketeers are in the middle of the pack in the Big East, and Lunardi’s recent projections have Xavier missing the NCAA Tournament for the fifth time in six seasons and the first time under head coach Sean Miller since his first year after replacing Thad Matta (2004-05).
Right now, Xavier’s main focus is playing consistent ball to break away from the logjam in the middle of the Big East standings. Xavier is part of a four-way tie for fifth place in the Big East (5-5 through Wednesday), along with Butler, Providence and St. John’s. Worth noting, Xavier is 3-1 against that rivalry trio, defeating Butler and St. John’s at home and Providence on the road.
Lunardi projects high seeds for three ranked teams in the Big East in No. 1 UConn (No. 1 seed), No. 9 Marquette (No. 2 seed) and No. 13 Creighton (No. 3 seed). Each team Xavier is tied with in fifth place are projected to make the tournament, per Lunardi’s projections, with fourth-place Seton Hall as one of the last four in.
Quadrant 1 wins
Going into the weekend, Xavier was No. 48 in the NCAA Net Rankings, moving up four spots after its recent Quadrant 2 win over St. John’s, and 1-5 on the road. Xavier is 1-1 in neutral site games (Continental Tire Main Event in Las Vegas) and 9-4 at Cintas Center.
Xavier is 2-7 in Quadrant 1 opportunities with its neutral site victory over St. Mary’s and 20-point road win over Providence. Xavier is 4-1 in Quadrant 2 games and 4-0 in Quadrant 4 contests. Xavier is really hurt in the Quadrant 3 section with a 1-2 record. Those two home non-conference losses to Oakland (13-9 through Wednesday) and Delaware (12-9) earlier in the season during Xavier’s 4-5 start to the year are not great on the resume.
Xavier has played KenPom’s No. 2 hardest schedule and its season of closes losses against top-tier teams (66-60 to Houston, 80-75 to UConn, 85-78 to Creighton) were missed opportunities.
The good news? The worst of Xavier’s schedule is over after finishing its regular-season matchups with UConn and St. John’s. Xavier could realistically be favored in over half of its remaining 10 Big East games and, as the NCAA Net Rankings sit right now, have five Quadrant 1 games left on the schedule and two Quadrant 2 opportunities. Xavier has yet to play Marquette (No. 14 NET) and will host Creighton (No. 15) next Saturday.
Xavier’s NCAA Tournament path
It’s hard to pinpoint exactly how big Xavier’s 88-77 win over St. John’s was, just that it was imperative for a young team to avoid slipping under .500. Miller might echo how important each Big East game is, which is true, but it’s hard to ignore the fact the Xavier’s hardest road trips in the Big East are behind them.
Simply put, it’s time to start stacking wins.
Per KenPom, Xavier is projected to go 17-14 overall and 11-9 in conference play. The aforementioned four-way tie for fifth in the Big East is important, given the top-5 teams in the conference receive a first-round bye in the Big East Tournament at Madison Square Garden next month.
Predicting the finish
UC
Keep in mind we’re a long way from St. Patrick’s Day and Selection Sunday on March 17. They do not hand beat writers crystal balls otherwise we could leisurely sit through Big 12 rock fights with our stories already written.
Realistically, UC will only be favored in four of their next 10 games. They have the familiar Houston Cougars, who sit atop the NCAA NET and have the best adjusted defensive efficiency in the country, twice. They get Iowa State at home, but the Cyclones were good enough to have a Houston win on their resumé. TCU, Oklahoma or UCF for that matter won’t be picnics on the road.
Four wins put them at 18-13 and squarely on the bubble. Realistically, the Bearcats are going to have to win one or two they weren’t favored in to gain some eyeballs. Their strength of schedule is mainly because of the Big 12 but is currently at No. 82, compared to Purdue at No. 1, or Xavier for that matter at No. 2. UC’s non-conference slate was only ranked No. 282. UC’s adjusted defensive efficiency is No. 16 compared to top-ranked Houston and they’ve been a rebounding force. However, the ball needs to find the cylinder a little more consistently, otherwise, you’ll be up late Sunday, March 17 trying to figure out where they land in the NIT for a second straight year.
Xavier Musketeers head coach Sean Miller asks for an explanation of a call from a referee in the first half of a college basketball game between the St. John’s Red Storm and the Xavier Musketeers, Wednesday, Jan. 31, 2024, at Cintas Center in Cincinnati. The Xavier Musketeers won, 88-77.
Xavier
Since the 4-5 start, Xavier has had no trouble defending home court, going 6-1 overall at Cintas Center (5-1 in Big East). Xavier needs to figure out its road woes, especially since the last time the Musketeers were on a rival’s home court (No. 1 UConn), they suffered their worst loss in nearly a quarter century.
Xavier has an upcoming stretch where three of four games will be at home. Realistically, Xavier will be favorites in five of its remaining 10 games. If you look at the final score projections in KenPom of Xavier’s five underdog opportunities, the predicted spread is two points or less in four of them. The outlier is at Marquette at the end of February, a tough matchup against the No. 9 Golden Eagles at Fiserv Forum.
Xavier has already beaten three of its final four road opponents in Seton Hall, Georgetown and Butler. A few months ago, this Xavier team looked destined to have the program’s first losing seasons since 1996. With the unpredictability of the Big East, that’s obviously still a possibility, but there’s also an NCAA Tournament berth there for the taking.
Xavier was projected to be a work in progress with 10 new players and only one returner from last year’s run, and that’s exactly what they’ve been at the halfway point of the Big East schedule. But an NCAA Tournament berth is there for the taking. If Xavier can beat up on the bottom of the barrel teams in the Big East and grab a few Quadrant 1 wins at home, they should earn a first-round bye when they visit Manhattan for the Big East tourney in March and be playing their best basketball when tournament time rolls around.
This article originally appeared on Cincinnati Enquirer: NCAA Tournament scenarios for Cincinnati, Xavier basketball
