Vaughn Dalzell shares his best bets for the Saturday slate, including Kansas at Houston and Albany vs Vermont.
Kansas at Houston (-8): O/U 137.5
Kansas beat Houston at home earlier this season, 78-65, so this is a home revenge spot in the final home game of the season for Houston.
The Jayhawks got out to a hot start against Houston, leading 43-28 at the half. I doubt that happens here as Houston’s defense at home is more than elite.
Houston ranks top three in the country for turnover percentage, effective field goal percentage, efficiency, two-point percentage, and free-throw rate.
The Cougars are undefeated at home as to where the Jayhawks are 3-6 on the road this year. Kansas is 283rd in three-point offense (30.3%) and 345th in three-point defense (39.5%) with the 320nd-ranked offensive rebounding percentage (22.8%). Houston should have their way at home.
I played the Kansas First Half Team Total Under 29.5 at -106 odds on FanDuel. DraftKings has 30.5 at -135 to the Under.
Pick: Kansas 1H Team Total Under 29.5 (1u)
Albany at Vermont (-14.5): O/U 145.5
In the 2022 and 2023 American East Tournaments, Vermont has held its opponents to 59, 42, 43, 57, 57, and 59 points for 52.8 points per game.
The Catamounts have won by 13 or more in all six games and 15-plus in five of those six contests, including 39 and 27-point wins in the last two first-round matchups.
Vermont has the home-court advantage as the American East Tournament is at Vermont due to them being the No. 1 seed again.
Over the last 10 games, Vermont has the 13th-ranked defense per Barttorvik and comes in as the 99th-best team in the country (9-1 in that span), while Albany is 2-8 over the past 10 with the 262nd-ranked team.
Vermont beat Albany, 81-59, at home earlier this season. Since 2017, Albany has scored 66 or more points at Vermont once, and that was a COVID year. I laid the -15 with Vermont and took Albany’s Team Total Under 65.5 at -110 odds, both on DraftKings.
Pick: Vermont -15 (1u), Albany Team Total Under 65.5 (1u)
Season Record: 63-56 (52.9%) +0.65 units
CBB Futures In My Pocket:
1u: Houston win the National Championship (+700)
1u: Iowa State to make the Final Four (+550)
1u: South Florida to win the AAC Tournament (+500)
1u: Illinois to win the Big Ten Tournament (+500)
1u: Morehead State to win the OVC Tournament (+105)
1u: Samford to win the SoCon Tournament (+155)
1u: Stetson and Vermont Conference Parlay (+103)
0.1u: Ohio State to win the Big Ten Tournament (+5000)
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