Celtics’ Schrödinger’s KAT defensive dilemma?

To better understand how Karl-Anthony Towns’ trade might impact the Celtics’ defense, let’s revisit the last time the Knicks came to Boston. In April, the Celtics employed two schemes to (try to) stop Jalen Brunson’s heliocentric offense.

Roaming

The first scheme aimed to keep Kristaps Porzingis near the rim by ignoring a non-shooter on the Knicks. If Kristaps Porzingis’ matchup set the screen, this turn into drop coverage. With Isaiah Hartenstein and Mitchell Robinson as the centers, this was a simple scheme in theory — both are non-shooters who could be disregarded beyond the three-point line.

While Mitchell was completely ignored on the perimeter, Isaiah Hartenstein managed to pull his defender away from the rim — not because of his shooting, but due to his ability to facilitate offense. He’s an excellent passer for his size and can handle the ball when needed.

As a result, Porzingis was assigned to the second-worst shooter, Josh Hart, while Jrue Holiday focused on Hartenstein.

In response, the Knicks used Josh Hart as a screener to attack Porzingis with Jalen Brunson. During these plays, Hartenstein was positioned in the dunker spot, which limited the Knicks’ spacing. But because Brunson is deadly in the mid-range, this didn’t pose too much of a problem that night.

However, with Karl-Anthony Towns instead of Hartenstein, Brunson will have even more space to operate against the Celtics’ defense and target as the unfortunate 7’3” Latvian center.

To illustrate how Karl-Anthony Towns could benefit Brunson’s driving game, let’s look at Anthony Edwards’ true shooting numbers from last season, with and without Towns on the floor:

  • In 1,953 minutes with KAT on the floor, Edwards’ TS%: 59.2%
  • In 1,466 minutes without KAT on the floor, Edwards’ TS%: 56.6%

This drop shows how challenging it might be to contain Brunson when Towns, a shooting threat, is on the floor instead of a non-shooting center. Could Boston’s other scheme against the Knicks prove more effective? Let’s examine the Celtics’ “switch-all” approach and how the trade could affect it.

Switch-all

The “switch-all” scheme usually appears when Kristaps Porzingis is on the bench. Without Porzingis, Boston moves away from drop coverage and roaming (which ultimately prioritizes rim protection) and switches to a more versatile approach. This is possible thanks to Al Horford, the ageless wonder.

When Boston becomes a “switch machine,” Jalen Brunson gets to choose his target. The problem is, Boston’s worst defender is often still above average in isolation. Still, Brunson can score over almost anyone, so help defense often comes from the rim or stunts from the wings.

Last season, Horford frequently provided help at the rim while Mitchell Robinson or Isaiah Hartenstein lingered in the dunker spot. Jayson Tatum also helped at the nail, and Jaylen Brown rotated in from the wing. Will this remain possible if the Knicks deploy a 5-out offense featuring Karl-Anthony Towns, OG Anunoby, Mikal Bridges, and Miles McBride? We’ll have to wait and see, but it will be a significant challenge.

Like Schrödinger’s cat, this is a curious thought experiment — only by opening the box and watching the games will we find out the answers. But it’s fascinating to see yet another Eastern Conference team with a center capable of pulling Porzingis out of the paint. The Sixers have Joel Embiid, the Bucks have Brook Lopez, the Pacers have Myles Turner, and now the Knicks have Karl-Anthony Towns.

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