We all know that the end goal is to raise Banner 19 and now we have part of the roadmap to get there.
The Celtics completely outpaced the rest of the league last season with 64 wins, fourteen ahead of everybody in the East and seven in front of the Thunder and Nuggets. When they were tested, they passed with flying colors. When they could have coasted, they didn’t.
But this upcoming season is a title defense and that comes with everybody using them as a measuring stick.
Positive Residual ranks the Celtics’ 2024-2025 regular season schedule as the 4th easiest in the league based on travel and rest day advantages, but as Larry Legend once astutely pointed out, everybody has the same number of home and road games. Bird didn’t play in the In-Season Tournament or load management era, so some of that logic is a little dated. Nonetheless, here’s the marathon course that runs from October to April. I always find it useful to break up the regular season into bite-size chunks. Let’s eat:
Knicks, at Wizards, at Pistons, Bucks: It’s always a curious choice who the league picks to be the visiting team on Ring Night. For the Celtics, their Atlantic Division rival will do just fine. New York is arguably the team that did the most in the offseason to matchup with Boston. A week later, they’ll host another Eastern Conference (supposed) juggernaut in the Bucks. Both matchups will be juiced (3-1).
at Pacers, at Hornets, at Hornets, at Hawks: First extended road trip features a rematch of the ECF and a two-game mini-series in Charlotte. It’s the first of 13 back-to-backs of the year. Spoiler alert: the Hornets wrap up their season in Boston with two games at TD Garden (3-1).
Warriors, Nets, at Bucks, Hawks, at Nets: Don’t put it pass Joe Mazzulla to play Jayson Tatum 48 minutes against Golden State and Olympic head coach Steve Kerr even if the score comes close to last year’s 52-point blowout in Boston. A home-and-away B2B most likely means Al Horford doesn’t make it up I-84 to Brooklyn, but he’ll probably play in the team’s first game of the NBA Cup round robin vs. his former Atlanta team (4-1).
Raptors, Cavaliers, at Wizards, Timberwolves, Clippers: By now, Mazzulla will have a good sense of what his big man rotation is going to be without Kristaps Porzingis for the first two months of the season. That’ll be tested when the Celtics host Cleveland and Minnesota. The winner of that Cavaliers game could be the Group C (3-2).
at Bulls, at Cavaliers, Heat, Pistons, Bucks, Grizzlies: This homestand features a brutal stretch of five games in seven nights that includes Boston’s third game against Giannis Antetokounmpo and the return of Marcus Smart back to the Garden. Maybe Memphis loans out our prodigal son for the night against the Greek Freak before NBA Cup Week (4-2).
Bulls, at Bulls, at Magic, 76ers, Pacers, Pacers, Raptors: The first third of the Celtics regular season schedule is extremely East-heavy and this is the final stretch of facing teams from east of the Mississippi. The biggest gift under the tree is that Christmas Day game tilt against Philly and if medical projections are right, the looming return of KP (6-1).
at Timberwolves, at Rockets, at Thunder, at Nuggets: The new year has Boston on the road for their first venture to the Western Conference. Knock on wood that the team is healthy because that could make for a week against potential Finals opponents (2-2).
Kings, Pelicans, at Raptors, Magic, Hawks: Hear that? That’s the drone of the dog days of an 82-game slog. Four out of five at home will recharge the batteries, but Boston can’t take it lightly against second tier teams looking to jockey for playoff position (4-1).
at Warriors, at Clippers, at Lakers, at Mavericks: Road trips have a way of defining/re-defining a team midway through the season. How many times have we seen the Celtics play in the PST and just flex on the West? (4-0).
Rockets, Bulls, at Pelicans, at 76ers, at Cavaliers, Mavericks, at Knicks, at Heat, Spurs: The march towards the NBA trade deadline on February 8th could be proving stage before the team goes into All-Star Weekend. Brad Stevens will be a little hard-pressed to make a move because of the CBA restrictions, but if the team stumbles in or around this stretch, maybe there’s a Xavier Tillman- or Jaden Springer-ish trade to be made (6-3).
at 76ers, Knicks, at Raptors, at Pistons: Some of the team will be in San Francisco for the ASW festivities. Others will be coming back from a beach or a staycation. Keep those bags packed, fellas. Three-games-in-four-nights with travel days from all three cities is your welcome back to the NBA grind (3-1).
Cavaliers, Nuggets, Trail Blazers, 76ers, Lakers, Jazz, Thunder: Seven games on the parquet floor is Boston’s longest home stretch of the year. They’ll need that homecooking before leaving for most of March (6-1).
at Heat, at Nets, Nets, at Jazz, at Trail Blazers, at Kings, at Suns, at Spurs, at Grizzlies: Last year, the Celtics had a big enough cushion to coast to the regular season finish line. The 2024-2025 schedule is very similar to last season’s with a long road trip followed by a long homestand. However, they’ll do this year’s roadie out west (5-4).
Heat, Suns, Wizards, at Knicks, at Magic, Hornets, Hornets: Home sweet home. A back-to-back at Madison Square Garden and the Magic Kingdom isn’t exactly the most inviting way to close out the year, but the champs won’t have to really defend the Larry O’Brien until May, June, and July (5-2).
Not counting the NBA Cup games, my prediction adds up to 58-22. That doesn’t touch last year’s 64 wins, but that’s right around DraftKings 58.5 win prediction and striking distance of that 60-win peak of greatness.
It’s been seven years since the Warriors put together back-to-back 60-plus wins. This version of the Celtics has already put their name in the history books; basketball immortality has a higher bar
