The NBA Finals continue in Dallas with Game 4. The Celtics are up 3-0 in the series and are looking to close out the series in a sweep with a win in this game. The Celtics have won 10 straight games in these playoffs and are undefeated on the road, going a perfect 7-0. The Mavericks are 5-4 at home so far in the playoffs.
The Mavericks are facing a very tough task if they hope to win the series. In NBA history, 156 teams have been down 0-3 in the a 7 game series in the playoffs. Of those 156 teams, none have come back to win the series. Only four teams have even forced a Game 7 after trailing 3-0, and only one did it in the Finals.
The first and only team to force a Game 7 in the NBA Finals were the 1951 New York Knicks. On April 21, 1951, the Knicks lost Game 7 to the Rochester Royals, now the Sacramento Kings, by just four points and ending their quest to come back from 0-3. Both the Celtics and the Mavericks have experience in this area but on different ends of the 0-3 deficit.
In the 2003 Western Conference first-round, the Portland Trailblazers were down 0-3 to the Dallas Mavericks and forced a Game 7, only to lose to the Mavericks. Celtics fans (and these Celtics) will remember the 2023 Eastern Conference Finals. The Celtics lost the first 3 games and fought back to force a Game 7. The Celtics may have been the first team to win after falling behind 0-3 if it wasn’t for Jayson Tatum spraining his ankle in Game 7.
The odds of a sweep are more likely than a team coming back from 0-3. There have been 76 Finals series in NBA history. 10 of those series have ended in a sweep. The first sweep in NBA Finals history was also involved the Boston Celtics. In 1959. Bill Russell and Bob Cousy swept the Minneapolis Lakers, winning four straight games.
However, Kyrie Irving does have some experience in making Finals history that could give the Mavericks hope. In 2016, Kyrie Irving, Lebron James, and the Cleveland Cavaliers were the first and only team to ever come back from a 3-1 deficit in the NBA Finals. In that series, the Warriors won Games 1 and 2 but the Cavaliers won Game 3. The Warriors won Game 4 but the Cavs held on to win Games 5, 6 and 7 to win the series. The Celtics need to do their best to avoid letting the Mavericks win even one game.
After playing in the first 2 games, Kristaps Porzingis is back on the injury list. There are narratives that the Celtics can’t win the title without Porzingis, but, they have had a lot of experience playing without him, both in the regular season and in the playoffs. The Celtics are 21-4 without Porzingis in the regular season and 13-2 without him in the playoffs. Their win in Game 3 is proof that they can beat the Mavericks without him.
Porzingis came up limping after coming down awkwardly in the third quarter of Game 2. He tried to play through the injury but didn’t finish the game. He suffered a torn medial retinaculum. He is listed as day to day and was held out of Game 3. Porzingis was seen going through shootaround Thursday and has not been ruled out for Game 4 as yet His status is a game time decision.
As he has been throughout the post season, Luka Doncic is once again on the injury list. He has been listed as probable with a right knee sprain and left ankle soreness almost every game in the first 3 rounds but has not missed a game yet. Before Game 2, he was downgraded to questionable with a chest contusion and was wrapped up like a mummy before the game but played the game and didn’t seem to be hampered at all by the list of ailments. He played in Game 3 and is expected to play in this game as well.
Probable Celtics Starters
Celtics Reserves
Al Horford
Oshae Brissett
Sam Hauser
Svi Mykhailiuk
Payton Pritchard
Jordan Walsh
Jaden Springer
Xavier Tillman
Neemias Queta
Luke Kornet
2 Way Players
JD Davison
Drew Peterson
Injuries/Out
Kristaps Porzingis (lower leg) questionable
Head Coach
Joe Mazzulla
Probable Mavericks Starters
Mavericks Reserves
Dante Exum
Josh Green
Tim Hardaway, Jr
Jaden Hardy
Maxi Kleber
AJ Lawson
Dereck Lively II
Markieff Morris
Dwight Powell
Oliver-Maxence Prosper
Two-Way Players
Greg Brown III
Alex Fudge
Brandon Williams
Injuries/Out
Luka Doncic (ankle/knee/chest) probable
Head Coach
Jason Kidd
Key Matchups
Jrue Holiday vs Luka Doncic
As it was in the first 3 games, Doncic vs Holiday is the key matchup. Doncic finished Game 1 with 30 points, 10 rebounds, 1 assist and 2 steals while shooting 46.2% from the field and 33.3% from beyond the arc.He finished Game 2 with 32 points, 11 rebounds, 11 assists, 4 steals and 8 turnovers while shooting 57.1% from the field and 44.4% from beyond the arc. In Game 3, he finished with 27 points, 6 rebounds, 6 assists and 2 steal while shooting 40.7% from the field and 14.3% from beyond the arc. He is very tough to defend as he can shoot from pretty much anywhere on the court. He has played a lot of iso ball and the Celtics have been forcing him to play defense. Because of that, he hasn’t been very effective in the 4th quarter, going 1-5, 1-6 and 1-4 in the 4th quarters of the 3 games so far. Hopefully, the Celtics can continue that trend in this game.
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Derrick White
Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images
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Kyrie Irving
Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images
Derrick White vs Kyrie Irving
In Game 1, Irving finished with 12 points, 3 rebounds, 2 assists and 2 steals while shooting 31.6% from the field and 0-5 on threes. In Game 2, he finished with 16 points, 2 rebounds, and 6 assists while shooting 38.9% from the field and 0-3 from beyond the arc. In Game 3, he played much better, finishing with 35 points, 3 rebounds, and 2 assists, while shooting 46.4% from the field and 66.7% from beyond the arc. He played very poorly in the first 2 games of that 2016 series but came back to finish strong to help them to win the series, including a game winner in Game 7 so the Celtics can’t count him out. He will likely play well in Game 4 also.
Honorable Mention
Jayson Tatum vs PJ Washington
Washington was a big addition to the Mavs at the trade deadline and gave them added defense along with another scorer. In Game 1, Washington finished with 14 points, 8 rebounds, and 1 assist while shooting 45% from the field and 0-3 from beyond the arc. In Game 2, he finished with 17 points, 7 rebounds, 1 assist, and 1 block. In Game 3, he finished with 13 points, 8 rebounds and 2 assists, while shooting 33.3% from the field and 50% from beyond the arc. Role players usually play much better at home and so the Celtics need to be ready for a big game from him and keep him out of the paint and off of the boards.
Keys to the Game
Defense – Defense is always the number one key to winning games, especially in the playoffs. There is no truer statement than “Defense wins Championships.” The Celtics have held the Mavericks under 100 points in the first 3 games. The Mavs are 8th with a defensive rating of 111.4 while the Celtics are 3rd with a defensive rating of 107.6. When the Celtics struggle on offense, as they did in Game 2, they have to be able to stop the other team from scoring. The Mavs are likely to attempt more 3’s this game and the Celtics need to be ready to defend them tighter on the perimeter. The Celtics need to play tough, lock down defense for the entire game. The Mavericks have players who can put up a lot of points in a hurry if the Celtics don’t play tough team defense. Defense won the first 3 games and is likely going to be what wins this series.
Rebound – Second to defense, rebounding is the key to winning. One of the few times I have agreed with Pat Riley was when he said “No rebounds, no rings.” Much of rebounding is effort and the Celtics have to put out extra effort to win the battle of the boards. When they work hard on the boards, it usually follows through to the rest of the game as well. In Game 1, the Celtics out-rebounded the Mavs 47-43 but they were out-rebounded in Game 2 43-41 and also in Game 3, 43-36. The Celtics need to put out extra effort on the boards to keep the Mavs from getting extra possessions and second chance points and to give the same to themselves.
Maximum Effort for 48 Minutes – The Celtics have to play hard from the opening tip to the final buzzer. It will be important to get off to a strong start. Dallas is 8-3 when they win the first quarter and the Celtics are 11-0 when they win the first quarter. They have to play hard on offense and especially on defense with no let up. The Mavericks are the toughest team that they have faced in the playoffs and nothing less than full effort from every player every minute they are in will do. The Celtics need to be aggressive in defending, going to the basket and. especially in rebounding. The two games the Celtics lost in these playoffs were mostly due to a lack of effort, especially on defense. They can’t let the Mavs play harder than them if they want to win this game.
Play of the Supporting Cast – Both of these teams have 2 big stars. The Celtics have Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown while the Mavericks have Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. One or both of the stars for both teams have played well so far in the series. The play of the other starter and role players may very well decide this game. The Mavericks will be depending on PJ Washington, Derrick Jones Jr, Daniel Gafford, Dereck Lively and assorted others to help out their stars. The Celtics will depend on Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, Al Horford, Payton Pritchard, Sam Hauser and maybe others. I know which supporting cast I would pick. The Celtics have to play as a team with each player contributing on both ends of the court.
X-Factors
On the Road – The Celtics are playing on the road once again. They need to keep their focus on playing the right way and not let the distractions of the road take away that focus. Over the past 3 years, Boston has gone 21-7 on the road in the playoffs. This is the best road record in the playoffs over a 3 year period. The Mavericks, especially the role players, are likely to play better on their home court and in front of their fans. The Celtics need to dig down deep and match the energy of the Mavs and continue to play Celtics basketball on the road.
Close Out Game – It is a well known fact that close out games are the hardest to win. The team that is down has their backs against the wall and play with desperation and the team that is up tends to let up, knowing that they have another chance if they don’t finish it here. Once again Kyrie Irving has experience in close out games that he can use to encourage his teammates. Irving was a perfect 14-0 in closeout games before a loss in Game 4 to the Timberwolves spoiled his perfect record. The Celtics have to remember their failure to close out the ECF last season and the Finals in 2022 and come into this game determined to close out the series in this game. They don’t want to give the Mavericks confidence.
Officiating – The officiating can always be an x-factor. Every crew calls the game a little differently and teams need to adjust to how the game is being called. Will they call the game tight or will they let them play? The Celtics can’t let the officiating take away their focus and they have to adjust to the way the refs are calling it. The Celtics need to build a lead so as not to have to worry about a call causing them to lose at the end of the game. In Game 3, Luka spent more time complaining to the refs than he did playing defense. We can only hope he will do that again.
Official Report
Crew Chief – Scott Foster
Foster has a home win/loss record of 48-28 this season. In these playoffs he calls 51% of fouls on the road team and 49% on the home team. Boston is 9-1 in their last 10 games with Foster as an official, including the Game 1 win over the Cavs and Game 2 loss to the Pacers. Dallas is 5-5 in their last 10 with Foster, including 5/29 loss to the Minnesota and 5/9 win over OKC. The Celtics are 73-60 all time with Foster while the Mavericks are 73-72 all time in games Foster calls. Foster is known as the Fixer and The Extender and is known for trying to keep games competitive as well as trying to extend series to extra games. He was voted the worst ref in the league in a poll taken of league referees (just ahead of Tony Brothers, who is in the replay center). Just the name Scott Foster tends to cause fear and gnashing of teeth by every fan base in the league. He can be very good but he can also be very bad. He has been good in the Celtics recent games. He called Game 4 of the Celtics sweep of Brooklyn in 2022.
Referee: David Guthrie
Guthrie has a home win/loss record of 26-37. The Celtics are 8-3 in their last 10 games with Guthrie as a ref, including the 4/24 loss to Miami, the 5/15 win over the Cavs and the 5/21 win over the Pacers. The Mavericks are 6-4 in their last 10 games with Guthrie, including 5/13 loss to OKC and 4/21 loss to the Clippers. He calls 44% of fouls against the road team and 56% against the home team. The Celtics are 79-45 all time with Guthrie on the court while the Mavs are 55-29 all time with Guthrie. In last year’s Finals, Guthrie was seen encouraging Michael Malone to challenge a call against the Nuggets which has caused some controversy.
Umpire – James Williams
Williams has a home win/loss record of 46-28. He calls 54% of fouls on the road team and 46% on the home team. The Celtics are 7-3 in their last 10 games with Williams on the crew including 5/11 win over the Cavs and 4/27 win over the Heat. The Mavericks are 6-4 in their last 10 games with Williams, including 5/9 win over OKC and 5/1 win over the Clippers. The Celtics are 34-21 all time in game Williams calls and the Mavs are 24-30 all time with Williams. Williams has faced criticism for bad calls during several games this season which added to a series of high-profile mistakes.
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