After 7 games at home, the Celtics are on the road to take on the Heat in Miami. This is the 3rd of 4 games between these two teams this season. They won 108-99 in Boston on December 2 and they won 103-85 in Miami on February 10. They will meet again for a 4th, and final, time on April 2 in Boston.
The Celtics won the series 3-0 last season, winning 2 games in Miami and one in Boston and they won the first round series between them in last year’s playoffs 4-1. They are 85-53 all time overall against the Heat and 41-30 in Miami. The Celtics are playing on the first night of back to back games. They are 8-2 on the first night of back to back games and 4-1 when the first game is on the road. They have 2 more back to back sets after this one.
The Heat made a 5 team trade at the deadline just before their last game against the Celtics. They traded the unjoyful Jimmy Butler to Golden State and Josh Richardson to the Jazz and they brought back Davion Mitchell, Andrew Wiggins and Kyle Anderson. They should be used to playing without Butler who was either injured or suspended for most of this season. All 3 of their new players made their debut for the Heat in the February 10 game against the Celtics.
The Celtics remain 2nd in the East. They are 8.5 games behind 1st place Cleveland, who have won their last 15 games. They are 4.5 games ahead of 3rd place New York and 10 games ahead of 4th place Milwaukee. They are 24-7 on the road and 7-3 in their last 10 games. They are 32-11 against Eastern Conference teams. After winning 5 straight, they lost to the Thunder in their last game.
The Heat are 9th in the East, 26 games behind first place Cleveland. They are half a game behind 8th place Orlando and 7.5 games behind 6th place Detroit and the final guaranteed playoff spot. They are 2 games ahead of 10th place Chicago and 6.5 games ahead of 11th place Toronto. They are 15-16 at home and 3-7 in their last 10 games. They are 18-22 against Eastern Conference opponents and have lost their last 5 games.
The Celtics just finished a 5-2 home stand. They lost the first game to the Cleveland Cavaliers and then beat the Denver Nuggets, Portland Trailblazers, 76ers, Lakers and Jazz in the next 5 games and lost the final game to the Thunder. After this game they will play at Brooklyn and then a home game against Brooklyn before they head out on a 6 game Western road trip through Utah, Portland, Sacramento, Phoenix, San Antonio and Memphis. They play 5 of their last 7 games at home.
The Heat are playing in the final game of a 5 game home stand. They lost the first 4 games of the home stand to Minnesota, Chicago, Charlotte and the Clippers. After this game they will play at Memphis and New York before another 5 game home stand where they will host Detroit, Houston, Charlotte, Golden State, and Atlanta. Next, they play at Philadelphia, Washington, and Boston before finishing out with 4 of their last 6 games at home.
Al Horford was originally listed as questionable with the toe sprain that has bothered him in the past but has been upgraded to probable at this time. Derrick White is questionable with a knee contusion. Jaylen Brown is questionable due to a right knee injury. Jayson Tatum is once again questionable due to right knee tendinopathy, Kristaps Porzingis is in danger of missing his eighth consecutive game due to a viral illness. If any or all of the 4 players are questionable, I don’t know who would start in their place so I’m just leaving them as starters for now.
The Heat are fairly healthy at this time Their starting lineup in the game notes are the same ones that they started in the last game. Alec Burks will miss his fifth straight game due to a back strain. Nikola Jovic fractured the second metacarpal on his right hand that won’t require surgery, but he has no timeline for a return at this time. Dru Smith ruptured his left Achilles tendon and will miss the remainder of the season.
Probable Celtics Starters
PG: Jrue Holiday
SG: Derrick White
SF: Jaylen Brown
PF: Jayson Tatum
C: Al Horford
Celtics Reserves
Payton Pritchard
Luke Kornet
Neemias Queta
Xavier Tillman, Sr
Jordan Walsh
Baylor Scheierman
Sam Hauser
Torrey Craig
2 Way Players
JD Davison
Drew Peterson
Miles Norris
Injuries/Out
Jayson Tatum (knee) questionable
Jaylen Brown (knee) questionable
Derrick White (knee) questionable
Kristaps Porzingis (illness) questionable
Al Horford (toe) probable
Head Coach
Joe Mazzulla
Probable Heat Starters
PG: Davion Mitchell
SG: Tyler Herro
SF: Andrew Wiggins
PF: Bam Adebayo
C: Kel’el Ware
Heat Reserves
Kyle Anderson
Haywood Highsmith
Jaime Jaquez, Jr
Keshad Johnson
Pelle Larsson
Kevin Love
Duncan Robinson
Terry Rozier III
Two Way Players
Josh Christopher
Isaiah Stevens
Dru Smith
Injuries/Out
Nikola Jovic (hand) out
Alec Burks (back) out
Dru Smith (Achilles) out
Head Coach
Erik Spoelstra
Key Matchups
Derrick White vs Tyler Herro
Herro is the Heat’s leading scorer this season. He is averaging 23.9 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 5.7 assists per game. He is shooting 46.1% from the field and 36.9% from beyond the arc. Against the Celtics in one game this season, Herro finished with 19 points, 5 rebounds and 4 assists while shooting just 31.6% from the field and 20.3% from beyond the arc. The Celtics need to keep him off of the 3 point line and defend him both on the perimeter and in the paint. White is questionable so he may or may not play in this one.
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Al Horford
Photo by Brian Babineau/NBAE via Getty Images
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Bam Adebayo
Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images
Al Horford vs Bam Adebayo
Adebayo is averaging 17.7 points, 10 rebounds, 4.4 assists, and 1.3 steals per game. He is shooting 48.8% from the field and 31.0% from beyond the arc. In the first 2 games against the Celtics, he averaged 18.5 points, 10 rebounds, and 4.5 assists while shooting 34.3% from the field and 22.2% from beyond the arc. He is a threat to score in the paint and grab rebounds and so the Celtics need to box him out and defend him well around the basket.
Honorable Mention
Jaylen Brown vs Andrew Wiggins
Wiggins is averaging 17.8 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 2.5 assists per game. He is shooting 44.0% from the field and 36.6% from beyond the arc. In 3 games against the Celtics this season (2 with Golden State and 1 with Miami) he averaged 10.3 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 1.7 assists per game while shooting 27% from the field and 13.3% from beyond the arc. Brown is questionable so he may or may not play in this one
Keys to the Game
Defense – Defense will always be the biggest key to winning every single game. The Celtics defense hasn’t been as good this year as it was last year. The Celtics are 5th with a defensive rating of 110.3 while they were first most of last season. The Heat are 12th with a defensive rating of 112.4. The Celtics need to defend the perimeter especially since the Heat attempt 38.4 threes a game and shoot threes just slightly worse than the Celtics at 36.1%. The Celtics need to work hard on defense and make that their priority.
Rebound – Along with defense, rebounding is always a key to winning. As Pat Riley once said “No rebounds, no rings.” The Celtics average 44.9 rebounds per game (10th) while the Heat average 43.5 rebounds per game (21st). The Celtics are 29-6 when they out-rebound opponents but just 18-13 when they are out-rebounded. It takes effort and hustle to get rebounds and the Celtics need to give more effort and hustle than the Heat to grab rebounds if they want to win this game.
Move the Ball – The Celtics are tough to beat when they keep the ball moving and find the open man but when one player over dribbles and lapses into hero ball, they falter. The Celtics are 34-2 when they have more assists than their opponent. Keep the ball moving and don’t lapse into iso ball, whether in the first quarter or the 4th quarter. Hero ball rarely ends well.
Don’t Underestimate – The Celtics need to stay focused and be aggressive from start to finish. The Heat have not been playing well, but they are still playing hard and trying to make the play-in, unlike a lot of tanking teams. Also, no matter what, the Heat always want to beat the Celtics after their heated playoff series in recent history. The Celtics can’t underestimate them because Butler is gone or because they are under .500 or because they have lost 7 of their last 10 games. They will still try their hardest to beat the Celtics and the Celtics need to work even harder to beat them.
X-Factors
On the Road – The Celtics are on the road after being at home for 7 games. In spite of the distractions of playing on the road, the Celtics have a better road record than home record. The Celtics need to stay focused on playing hard and as a team and not be distracted by the hostile crowd or the unfamiliar court or the fatigue that comes from travel.
injuries – The Heat are mostly healthy unless they have late additions to their injury list. The Jazz were just fined $100,000 for holding Lauri Markkanen out of a game for rest. The Celtics need to be careful holding players out for rest. Unless there is proof that the player is injured, they can’t hold more than 1 star player per game. So, I don’t see them just sitting guys out with the League keeping eyes on teams for violating the Player Participation Policy. Obviously, the more players who don’t play, the harder the game will be to win.
Officiating – Officiating is always an x-factor in every game. Every crew officiates differently. Some call it tight, others let them play. The Celtics need to adjust to how the refs are calling the game and not allow bad calls or no calls to take away their focus from playing the game. The more aggressive team will usually get the benefit of the calls and so the Celtics need to be the more aggressive team.
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