During the NBA Finals, Celtics fans were acutely aware that every non-Celtics fan was rooting for Dallas to pull off the upset. However, once the series was over, there was near unanimous happiness for Al Horford finally winning a championship. Even the biggest Celtics detractors could appreciate one of the NBA’s greatest humans finally winning a title.
I say near unanimous because Sixers fans exist. At 38 years old, Al Horford wasn’t merely a bystander; his contributions were crucial, and the Celtics might not have secured the title without him.
Al Horford should not have been able to deliver the Celtics a playoff run as he did in the 2024 playoffs. 38-year-olds are not supposed to be this good at basketball at this advanced age. Even if we remove the context of Horford playing in the NBA since 2007, he still performed at an elite level.
Last season, there were only nine centers who averaged at least 3.5 three-point attempts per game and had a block percentage of 3%: Joel Embiid, Victor Wembanyama, Jaren Jackson Jr, Kristaps Porzingis, Chet Holmgren, Brook Lopez, Naz Reid, Myles Turner, and Al Horford (per stathead). Few big men can stretch the floor on offense while also defending the rim — an incredibly rare and impactful player archetype. Side note: the Celtics having two of these nine players is a reminder of how absurdly talented and versatile their roster is.
Al Horford not only embodies a highly sought-after player archetype, but he topped them all with an outrageous three-point percentage of 41.9%. On top of Horford’s ability to stretch the floor and protect the rim, he remains one of the best switch-bigs in the NBA. Horford only allowed 0.822 points per isolation in last year’s playoffs. The only player in the group above to allow fewer points per isolation across last season was teammate Kristaps Porzingis.
Al Horford was, straight up, one of the best big men in the NBA last season.
To put Al Horford’s age and impact into context, only six players in NBA history have made it to the NBA Finals at age 37 or older while playing at least 30 minutes per game: Tim Duncan, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (twice), Jason Kidd, Karl Malone, and Al Horford. That is rarefied air. If not for LeBron James and what he has been able to accomplish on the court coming into his age-40 season, I think Al Horford’s longevity would be celebrated more as the phenomenon that it is. Admittedly, LeBron still being this good at basketball at his age is almost incomprehensible. Both Horford and James are ageless wonders.
How long can we expect Al Horford to maintain this level of play? We can use historical examples to help forecast the next couple of years for Horford’s career. I have placed players into arbitrary categories based on their genetic gifts:
- Tier 1 – Genetic Aliens – Lebron James, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar – once-in-a-lifetime athletes.
- Tier 2 – Genetic Ground Bound Martians – Tim Duncan, Al Horford – players that are clear genetic outliers but did not rely on traditional explosive athleticism to be effective.
- Tier 3 – Genetic skill merchants – Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Kidd, John Stockton, Steve Nash, Reggie Miller, Chris Paul – players who were so incredibly skilled that it extended their careers.
As much as I love Al Horford, I’m not quite ready to put him in the Lebron/Kareem tier. However, I do think there are parallels between Tim Duncan and Al Horford. Neither player relied heavily on quickness or explosive athleticism. They dominated late into their career with IQ and skill. Al Horford just won the title in his age-37 season and played 30.3 minutes per game. In Tim Duncan’s age-37 season, the San Antonio Spurs won the 2013-2014 NBA championship against the Miami Heat while playing 32.7 minutes per night. Duncan would go on to play two more seasons with the Spurs: In Duncan’s age-38 season, he played 77 regular season games while averaging 28.9 minutes per night. That year, the Spurs won 55 games and had the league’s third-best net rating. In Duncan’s age-39 season, he played 61 games while averaging 25.2 minutes per night, ranking 6th on the team in total minutes. The Spurs won 67 games and had the league’s best net rating. Which team was ranked second in net rating that year? The 73 win Golden State Warriors.
Photo by Scott Cunningham/NBAE via Getty Images
The Tim Duncan blueprint would indicate that we have at least two years left of Al Horford contributing to winning basketball for the Boston Celtics. Considering what we saw from Horford in the most recent playoffs, I have no reason to believe his play would suddenly fall off a cliff. While there have been some signs of athletic decline in Horford over the past couple of years, he remains effective at defending in space, even if he isn’t quite at the level he reached during the 2022 playoffs.
Specifically, throughout that 2022 playoff run, he defended isolations at 0.691 points per isolation – an elite number and a relatively significant step up from the 0.822 points per isolation he recorded in the 2024 playoffs. While we have seen a drop off from two years ago, most big men in today’s NBA would kill to be able to guard in space the way 38-year-old Al Horford is. And lastly, something that Duncan didn’t have going for him late in his career that Al Horford does: three-point shooting. The way that Al Horford has turned himself into an elite shooter might allow him to play in the NBA into his 40’s. Over the last two seasons, combining both playoffs and regular season, Horford has shot 40.9% from three – the best two-year stretch of his career.
As strongly as I believe in Al Horford’s ability to play at a high level for at least the next two seasons, the question remains: does Al want to continue playing beyond this upcoming season? Sadly, Horford has not shared his retirement plans with me (yet). We know Horford is under contract next season; beyond that, only Big Al knows what’s next. However, if the Boston Celtics are still clear-cut championship contenders and Al’s body still feels good, I would bet he’s back for the 2025-2026 season.
